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2012 may be one of the most strenuous years for economic policy in living memory

Fragile and unbalanced in 2012

2012 may be one of the most strenuous years for economic policy in living memory

The outlook for the global economy in 2012 is clear, but it isn’t pretty: recession in Europe, anaemic growth at best in the US, and a sharp slowdown in China and in most emerging-market economies. Asian economies are exposed to China. Latin America is ...

Economists worry that the current crisis could spell the end of globalisation

Which globalisation will survive?

Economists worry that the current crisis could spell the end of globalisation

Hard economic times are correlated with protectionism, as each country blames others and protects its domestic jobs. In the 1930’s, such “beggar-thy-neighbour” policies worsened the situation. Unless political leaders resist such responses, the past...

In the long run, knowledge and technology are what matter for growth

Where does economic growth come from?

In the long run, knowledge and technology are what matter for growth

There are four issues that matter in economics: growth, stability, sustainability and fairness. The developed world has, rightly, been engrossed with stability and sustainability of late; but we must also consider long-run growth. Growth is particularly i...

Deciphering economics is about more than just understanding the system itself

The neuroeconomics revolution

Deciphering economics is about more than just understanding the system itself

Economics is at the start of a revolution that is traceable to an unexpected source: medical schools and their research facilities. Neuroscience – the science of how the brain, that physical organ inside one’s head, really works – is beginning to ch...

Europe’s high-risk gamble

France and Germany are running out of time in stalling Greece’s default

The Greek government needs to escape from an otherwise impossible situation. It has an unmanageable level of government debt (150 percent of GDP, rising this year by 10 percentage points), a collapsing economy (with GDP down by more than seven percent thi...

The Decline and Fall of America’s Decline and Fall

The US has always had its doomsayers, but its current challenges are perfectly surmountable

The United States is going through difficult times. Its post-2008 recovery has slowed, and some observers fear that Europe’s financial problems could tip the American and world economy into a second recession. American politics, moreover, remains gri...

For the first time the future of the global economy lies in the hands of poor countries

The future of economic growth

For the first time the future of the global economy lies in the hands of poor countries

Perhaps for the first time in modern history, the future of the global economy lies in the hands of poor countries. The United States and Europe struggle on as wounded giants, casualties of their financial excesses and political paralysis. They seem conde...

The process of balance-sheet repair – while not completed yet – is underway

Global risk and reward in 2011

The process of balance-sheet repair – while not completed yet – is underway

The outlook for the global economy in 2011 is, partly, for a persistence of the trends established in 2010. These are: an anaemic, below-trend, U-shaped recovery in advanced economies, as firms and households continue to repair their balance sheets; a str...

The debt-to-GDP obsession is  driven by inattention and misinformation

Debt and delusion

The debt-to-GDP obsession is driven by inattention and misinformation

Economists like to talk about thresholds that, if crossed, spell trouble. Usually there is an element of truth in what they say. But the public often overreacts to such talk. Consider, for example, the debt-to-GDP ratio, much in the news nowadays in Eu...

All in the family

When does family business become crony capitalism?

Big economic crises often cause iconic companies to falter. Rupert Murdoch’s media empire is a model of the modern global enterprise. A particularly dynamic and innovative business model came from outside and took over central aspects of British and...

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Zimbabwe

234.1% of GDP, pariah of debt markets, but with hopes for a healthy twelve months ahead

Japan

197.5%, hard-hit by the tsunami, and reeling from the internal corruption allegations

Greece

142.8%, possibly heading for default, and considered one of many eurozone bad boys

Lebanon

133.8%, deceptively, has a strong banking sector, but little more in an ailing economy

Iceland

126%, hopelessly indebted banks and very little light at the end of a long and gloomy tunnel

Italy

119% of GDP, in need of reform, paying over 7% for its debt thanks to technocratic leadership

Singapore

106%, to many an idyllic investment destination, a great borrower, repayer, and long term option

Belgium

101%, no government for most of 2011 didn’t help a weak economy in dire need of stimulus

Egypt

90%, high but it’s recovering from a long and protracted revolution and aiming high

European Union

82%, stronger countries like Germany are contaminated by the weakest. It could go on…