The composition of the elite has changed with time – circulation is a natural feature of the system
One of the founders of neoclassical economics in the late 19th century was the Italian economist and sociologist Vilfredo Pareto. It might seem that the musings of a neoclassical economist over a century ago would have little in common with the concerns o...
David Orrell considers the current value of future returns of a new and somewhat outlandish exchange weight that some consider a route out of recession
When we deposit money in the bank, we usually expect to receive interest in return. But would it be better for the economy as a whole, if instead we had to pay to have our money looked after? The cost of keeping money, known as demurrage, has been a fe...
Vilfredo Pareto and the Occupy movement
One of the founders of neoclassical economics in the late 19th century was the Italian economist and sociologist Vilfredo Pareto. It might seem that the musings of a neoclassical economist over a century ago would have little in common with the concerns o...
Do we need another Newton, or do we just need a different aesthetics?
In a 2009 New York Times article entitled How Did Economists Get It So Wrong? Paul Krugman wrote that “The economics profession went astray because economists, as a group, mistook beauty, clad in impressive-looking mathematics, for truth.” ...
We can blame ‘the butterfly effect,’ writes David Orrell, but the truth is we’re just very bad at predicting the future
The Canadian ice hockey player Wayne Gretzky once said, “A good hockey player plays where the puck is. A great hockey player plays where the puck is going to be.” Businesses and societies try to perform a similar trick, through forecasting. We seem...
He defeated communism, successfully lobbied for deregulation of the financial markets and was instrumental in the formation
of capitalism as we know it. But in the wake of the global financial crisis, writes David Orrell, isn’t it time to abandon the idea of rational economic man?
One of the greatest of economic myths is the animal known as rational economic man. This mythological beast is frequently described in introductory economics books, and is defined by certain striking characteristics.He is highly individualistic – he...
The fables inherent in contemporary economics are various
In early 2010, the world economy may finally be emerging from the deepest recession since the 1930s. The blame for the recession has been put on many things, including the US housing market, complex credit derivatives, risk models, banker bonuses, and so ...
Financial disasters follow a power-law, writes David Orrell. And power-law distributions are neither completely ordered, nor completely chaotic, but are on the boundary between the two
As discussed in previous columns, financial crashes have similar statistical properties as earthquakes, craters on the moon, and many other natural phenomena, in that they follow what is known as a scale-free, power-law distribution. This means in effect ...
It might seem that fisheries management and financial regulation have little in common. Bankers have been accused of many things recently, but only rarely of being slippery underwater creatures with gills
However, the two fields of fisheries and finance do share certain properties. Their overseers are both charged with the management of complex ecosystems, either of different ocean species, or of different investor species. They each have to deal with sudd...
…said the neoclassical economist Alfred Marshall in the preface to his Principles of Economics. The mathematician and author David Orrell considers the relationship between science and economics
Since Marshall wrote those words a century ago, however, there has been surprisingly little integration between economics and other life sciences. Instead economics has continued to model itself after physics. The General Equilibrium Models favoured by po...
234.1% of GDP, pariah of debt markets, but with hopes for a healthy twelve months ahead
197.5%, hard-hit by the tsunami, and reeling from the internal corruption allegations
142.8%, possibly heading for default, and considered one of many eurozone bad boys
133.8%, deceptively, has a strong banking sector, but little more in an ailing economy
126%, hopelessly indebted banks and very little light at the end of a long and gloomy tunnel
119% of GDP, in need of reform, paying over 7% for its debt thanks to technocratic leadership
106%, to many an idyllic investment destination, a great borrower, repayer, and long term option
101%, no government for most of 2011 didn’t help a weak economy in dire need of stimulus
90%, high but it’s recovering from a long and protracted revolution and aiming high
82%, stronger countries like Germany are contaminated by the weakest. It could go on…