Truth and beauty

Do we need another Newton, or do we just need a different aesthetics?

In a 2009 New York Times article entitled How Did Economists Get It So Wrong? Paul Krugman wrote that “The economics profession went astray because economists, as a group, mistook beauty, clad in impressive-looking mathematics, for truth.”

 

Most non-economists, or even economists, would not associate economics with beauty. But a sense of aesthetics plays an important role in many branches of science. Bertrand Russell wrote that “Mathematics, rightly viewed, possesses not only truth, but supreme beauty – a beauty cold and austere, like that of sculpture.” The same kind of beauty is sought and appreciated by researchers in more applied areas as well – not just for its own sake, but because it often seems to indicate that one is on the right path.

 

The French mathematician and physicist Henri Poincaré wrote that the “true aesthetic feeling that all real mathematicians know” acted as a “delicate sieve” which allowed the scientist to discern the truly useful patterns in nature. The British physicist Paul Dirac went so far as to argue that “It is more important to have beauty in one’s equations than to have them fit experiment.” He proved it by using an elegant equation to infer the existence of anti-matter before it had been physically detected.

 

Three key aesthetic properties are elegance, unity, and symmetry. Perhaps the archetype of a beautiful theory is Newton’s law of gravity. The equation is mathematically simple and elegant. It unifies a broad range of phenomena – everything from the motion of the Moon around the Earth, to an apple falling to the ground. And it is highly symmetric, both spatially (it is the same in every direction), and in the sense that it produces a symmetric force. When the Earth pulls on the Moon, the Moon pulls back on the Earth (and produces tides).
Physicists seek out symmetries in nature because these allow simplified mathematical representations.

 

In areas such as physics, beauty and truth have come to be regarded almost as two sides of the same coin. But does the same approach work in a social sciences like economics?

 

Broken mirror
One of the great appeals of neoclassical economics is the physics-like way in which it reduces a complex world to a set of elegant equations. For example, some of the key planks of neoclassical economics are rationality, stability, and uniformity (a large number of consumers and producers with similar characteristics). These were originally evoked as computational simplifications, but have taken on a life of their own. And each represents a kind of symmetry in the system.

 

Rationality is a symmetry, because any rational person will make the same decision given the same information. If completely rational people look at one another, it must be like looking in the mirror. Stability is symmetry in time. If markets are in equilibrium, then the future looks like the past. And if markets are uniform in the sense that market participants have similar power and other characteristics, then that means transactions are symmetric.

 

Of course, no one thinks that people are perfectly rational, or that markets are perfectly stable or uniform. Much work has been done exploring deviations from these assumptions. But when it comes to what Krugman called the “impressive-looking mathematics” used in economic models, the world is a very rational, stable, and uniform place.

 

For example, the General Equilibrium Models beloved by policy makers look at how market equilibrium will rationally adapt to changing conditions. Risk models used by banks also assume rational behaviour and an underlying equilibrium. And as economist Norbert Häring notes in his book The Economics of Power, power discrepancies “are defined away by standard assumptions of mainstream economic models.”

 

As shown by the recent crisis, though, markets rely as much on emotions such as trust and confidence, as they do on rationality. There is no guarantee that the future will resemble the past. And the idea that power is not important will seem risible to the scores of economic protestors camped out in cities around the world. The mirror of symmetry isn’t just a little distorted – it is completely warped.

 

So do we need another Newton to come along with an aesthetically pleasing formula to explain it all? Or do we just need a different aesthetics?

 

A new aesthetics
While economics has traditionally modelled itself after physics, biologists have tended to see beauty in the complexity of life rather than the neatness of symmetric equations. For example, Louis Pasteur discovered in the mid-19th century that many organic chemicals can appear in two reflected versions. Artificially synthesised compounds will have a mix of both, but ones produced by living organisms always have the same handedness. He concluded that asymmetry and life were intimately related, and wrote that “Life as manifested to us is a function of the asymmetry of the universe … I can even imagine that all living species are primordially, in their structure, in their external forms, functions of cosmic asymmetry.”

 

Biological systems typically operate at a state which is best described as far from equilibrium, in the sense that the components are constantly being churned around. Stability, where it appears, is provisional, approximate, and subject to change. There is no symmetry in time – organisms are born, evolve, die, and decay. And as Darwin knew, evolution is driven not by uniformity, but by the infinite variation of the natural world.

 

Many of the new mathematical methods being applied in economics also do away with the symmetry assumptions of neoclassical economics. For example, behavioural economists allow people to be inelegantly human and flawed rather than perfectly rational. Complexity economics follows the non-linear, far-from-equilibrium dynamics of evolving economic systems. Network theory studies the non-uniform networks which characterise the financial system.

 

In order to develop a new vision for economics, perhaps we first need to develop a new sense of aesthetics, which takes its inspiration from biology rather than physics. The poet John Keats wrote that “Beauty is truth, truth beauty.” But there are different kinds of beauty – and like Marilyn Monroe’s mole, not all of them reduce to symmetry or neat equations.

 

David Orrell is a mathematician and author of Economyths: Ten ways economics gets it wrong

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The May – June 2013 Issue

Highest corporate tax
rates in Europe

European countries are scrambling to raise every last penny of funds through taxes. But some countries may have gone too far...

Belgium

Though all business taxes in Belgium can be paid online with little effort and preparation, the rates are still sky-high at 57.7 percent, including a staggering 50.8 percent total rate on profits only in social security contributions.

Belarus

In Belarus, a company spends up to 338 hours annually preparing for and paying ten different taxes and duties. The total tax rate has incredibly been lowered to 60.7 percent, from 117.5 percent in 2008.

France

A company in France pays seven different taxes and duties, the sum of which can amount to 65.7 percent of profits; though President François Hollande has announced a wave of business tax rate cuts coming up.

Estonia

A business in Estonia pays 67.3 percent of profits in tax, 37.2 percent exclusively in social security contributions. The country has gone against the grain in Europe by raising businesses taxes from 48.6 percent in 2008 to the current rates.

Italy

While corporate income tax (IRES) in Italy is limited to 38 percent of taxable profit, a company operating in Italy can expect to pay 14 other taxes and duties, including social security contributions, bringing their total payable tax to 68.7 percent of profits, according to the World Bank.

Norway

Norway taxes motor fuels twice, with a road use tax and a CO2 emissions tax. Combined with strikes in the energy sector that have curbed output, the price of gas at a local pump has soared to $10.12 per gallon.

Turkey

Though Turkey sits on the Suez Canal and neighbours many oil rich countries, the price of a gallon of average gas clocks in at $9.41 in Turkish pumps, because of a 60 percent share of taxes. 

Israel

Like Turkey, Israel is surrounded by oil-rich neighbours, but drills very little itself. Gas prices are controlled by the government, so about half of the $9.28 per gallon goes to taxes.

Hong Kong

There are few gas stations in Hong Kong, but the ones available charge up to 76 percent more per gallon than mainland China, where the government caps the cost of fuel. A gallon at the pumps will cost around $8.61 on the island.

Netherlands

Expensive labour costs make the Dutch petrol prices the dearest in Europe, at $8.26 per gallon; though the 57 percent tax add-ons don’t help.

The credit crisis

8 February 2007
HSBC warns of subprime mortgage losses

2 April 2007
New Century goes bus

14 September 2007
Wholesale markets have dried up

17 March 2008
Rescue of Bear Stearns

7 September 2008
Rescue of Fannie Mae

15 September 2008
Lehman Brothers file for bankruptcy

3 October 2008
US congress approves $700bn bailout

14 February 2009
$787bn stimulus approved by congress

 

The effects of the current financial crisis are global and irrefutable. With the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the domino effect of irresponsible public monetary policies, huge levels of unsustainable debt, and a deregulated financial sector, has escalated to the point where no corner of the globe has been left untouched.

1973 oil crisis

October 1973
Syria and Egypt launch an attack on Israel on Yom Kippur and set off a twenty day war;

1977
US President Carter creates Department of Energy, which develops the US strategic petroleum reserve

 

The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) used their oil reserves as a weapon with the Arab Oil Embargo against those who supported Israel. By January 1974, world oil prices were four times higher than they were at the start of the crisis, especially in the US, and the shock led to a huge drop in the stock market with NYSE losing $97bn in just six weeks.  The embargo lasted five months, and the effects are still seen today.

German hyperinflation

1922-1923

Hyperinflation
1923 – 1924
Stabilisation

 

The trouble began when Germany missed a repatriation payment, worth about one third of the German deficit in this period. Inflation was already high but by 1923 it was raging. Prices doubled within hours, and by late 1923, it cost 200bn marks to buy a single loaf of bread. People burned money as it was cheaper than buying firewood. Germany eventually regained control of its economy when it introduced the Rentenmark into circulation in 1923, and then the Reichmark in 1924.

The Great Depression

1929-1933
The Great Crash
1934-1939
Recovery and Recession

 

After the decadence of the Roaring Twenties, the 1930s saw the biggest economic slump of all time. The stock market crashed on 29 October 1929, and optimism and decadent living tumbled along with the figures. The GDP fell from $103.6bn in 1929, to $66bn in 1934 and the subsequent years of recovery were the most dramatic in US history.

1907 bankers’ panic

1907
Otto Heinze and his brother Augustus Heinze bought shares of United Copper.

 

The stock market was already cautious over the tight money supply, but the US was thrown into a depression after the stock market fell nearly 50 percent from its peak in 1906. The Heinze brothers thought they could influence market shares but ended up bankrupting lenders that provided the financing to buy the stock. A chain reaction left nine institutions bankrupt. By February 1908, the panic was over and the government created the Federal Reserve system, to prevent banks from exercising too much control over the economy.