Morgan Stanley Q2 much better than it looks
Morgan Stanley: Morgan Stanley might look like it’s the only investment
bank that couldn’t make money last quarter. But strip out all the
one-off funnies and the Wall Street firm’s $159 million reported loss
actually turns into some tolerable core earnings.
Getting there
involves adding a few items back to revenues. First, the $2.3 billion
hit Morgan Stanley had to take as the credit spreads on its own debt
improved – the result of a 2007 accounting change that forces firms to
record gains as their liabilities slip in value and losses if they
increase.
Next, fold back in the $850 million it paid to get out
of the US government’s Troubled Asset Relief Programme, and, just to be
generous, the charge for swapping some preferreds held by Mitsubishi
Financial into stock, Smith Barney merger costs and a one-off special
assessment levied by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.
All
in, that boosts overall revenue to $8.9 billion, leaving Morgan Stanley
with $2.9 billion in pre-tax earnings. Assuming the quarter’s whopping
54 percent tax bill still applies, that leaves a profit of $1.33
billion. On an annualised basis, that makes for a return on equity of
some 9 percent. That’s far better than the paltry 0.3 percent
first-quarter showing. But the results still stand out as sub-par
compared to rivals.
Much of the problem comes in fixed income.
Granted, $2.5 billion of revenue – after adding back charges on Morgan
Stanley’s own liabilities – looks pretty good for a firm that has
disavowed prop trading. But with Citi and JPMorgan reporting twice as
much and Goldman Sachs and Bank of America even more than that, Morgan
Stanley looks rather shy – and insiders say it pulled its punches in
both currencies and the rates business. Also, Morgan Stanley’s asset
management division is still losing money, largely because of principal
investments.
That leaves the firm rather caught between two
stools: its trading results are suffering because it isn’t taking
enough risk while investments are still suffering because it took too
much.
The good news is that once properly up and running the
brokerage joint venture with Smith Barney should post better results
and boost returns. But until it is clear exactly what the firm’s
tolerance for risk is, Morgan Stanley’s shareholders are likely to
tread a cautious path.
Context News
Morgan
Stanley reported a second-quarter loss of $159 million, or $1.37 a
share, missing the consensus estimate of a loss of 54 cents a share.
The
firm recorded investment banking fee revenue of $1.1 billion, equity
trading revenue of $681 million and fixed income trading revenue of
$973 million. Overall, the investment bank recorded a pre-tax loss of
$307 million, global wealth management a loss of $71 million and asset
management a loss of $239 million.
The loss was driven by two
factors. First, the firm took a $2.3 billion revenue hit as spreads on
its own liabilities improved during the quarter. Under US accounting
rules, financial firms must mark to market changes in the spreads of
their own debt: as spreads widen – as they did as the credit crisis
worsened – firms record a gain; as spreads narrow, they record a loss.
Second,
Morgan Stanley paid a one-off $850 million preferred dividend related
to paying back the $10 billion in capital it received from the US
government’s Troubled Asset Relief Programme.
Elsewhere, Morgan
Stanley took a $202 million hit from the partial exchange of preferred
stock issued to MUFG for common stock and a $319 million after-tax gain
from selling its remaining stake in MSCI.
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In this edition, Dr Dusko Knezevic on public-private partnerships across the Eurozone, a special report on private equity in Africa, and the changing nature of risk.