CIT may find bankruptcy easier than rebirth
After a difficult landing, CIT slid into a
well-foamed runway on Sunday. It fought hard to have its pre-packaged
bankruptcy plan approved by creditors, including dissident bondholder
Carl Icahn. But the more difficult task lies ahead for the US lender to
small and medium-sized businesses: convincing the world it has a reason
to exist beyond Chapter 11.
True, the firm did succeed
mightily in convincing its creditors to back management's plan for a
somewhat orderly restructuring. About 90 percent of them supported the
measure. This is surprising given estimates by some analysts that
creditors could receive up to 90 cents on the dollar in a wind-down.
It
appears lenders feared there was too much risk in liquidation,
including accelerated customer flight and counter-parties seizing
assets. CIT may also have successfully scared unsecured lenders into
believing they might only receive six cents on the dollar.
Indeed,
such a rousing success for CIT management's preferred route raises
questions of why the company went to such lengths to placate Icahn,
accepting $1bn of contingent financing from him. Paying the associated
fees looks like an expensive way to avoid embarrassing attention and
lawsuits from the activist. The pre-packaged bankruptcy would have
succeeded without the support of Icahn, according to people familiar
with the vote.
But now that it has gotten its deal through
comes the harder part of proving the viability of the business. That
looks a Herculean task. Above all, the CIT brand is now synonymous with
bankruptcy - not something that usually attracts businesses seeking
capital.
And even if clients seek CIT's custom when it emerges
from bankruptcy, it is hard to see how it can resume funding itself
with a clearly broken business model. The financing infrastructure that
allowed CIT to borrow money cheaply in the commercial paper markets and
lend it out to needier borrowers on a longer-term basis looks to be
permanently shuttered.
Even CIT's mightier non-bank rival GE
Capital is struggling to adapt to this new world order. And unlike CIT,
GE has been able to avail itself plentifully from government financing
guarantees and a deep-pocketed parent. CIT has accomplished a tricky
navigation into prepackaged bankruptcy. Convincing customers and
lenders it needs to exist beyond that point is not a given.
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In this edition, Dr Dusko Knezevic on public-private partnerships across the Eurozone, a special report on private equity in Africa, and the changing nature of risk.