The new path to shareholder value

A CEO’s guide to building competitive advantage through enterprise risk management, by Robert Wyle, Senior Director, Moody’s Analytics, Enterprise Risk Solutions

Firms that persevered through the crisis had one thing in common: they had a robust risk management infrastructure. It wasn’t a turn-the-crank, back-office risk management – nor was it silo-based. It was the kind of risk management that permeated an entire organisation: it was culture; it was governance; it was infrastructure; it leveraged advanced quantitative risk practices; and it was transparent. But, most importantly, it was integrated into the business.

All firms are now obligated to reinvent or rejuvenate their risk infrastructure at the behest of regulators. But beyond regulatory reporting there is a significant and meaningful opportunity for firms to reinvent their risk management practice in a way that opens up opportunities to do business smarter, faster and with more meaningful outcomes. In fact, risk management is no longer a cost centre – its new role is to enhance business strategy, identify opportunities and ultimately create long-term shareholder value. This article provides six key themes CEOs should focus on as they build their companies into the future and focus on creating long-term value for their shareholders.

Elevate risk management
Start with giving your group risk function the authority and funding that it needs in order to achieve its mission. Create the governance and internal institutions that can prospectively support the management of the risk strategy – this includes building an enterprise-wide policy and committee infrastructure to assess, quantify, and monitor the full taxonomy of risks to which your firm is exposed.

With governance in place, set your new organisation the task of creating a risk appetite statement that reflects your firm’s business strategy and the related risks. It’s beneficial to base your appetite statement in economic capital terms to facilitate advanced types of analysis and business practices, such as capital allocation, risk-adjusted performance measurement, linking incentive compensation with risk-adjusted performance and more. With risk management’s heightened profile, you will begin to create a responsive risk culture that speaks the same language and is accountable to the same objectives.

Build a cross-functional infrastructure
The crisis revealed that silo-oriented risk management created separate and often irreconcilable data infrastructures. For example, while Asset and Liability Management (ALM) data repositories capture capital markets data and instrument level bank data, they often lack detailed information regarding off-balance sheet facilities, counterparty agreements, securities information and counterparty credit risk exposures. Conversely, regulatory or Basel II implementations frequently lack the capital markets data and instrument level data necessary to forecast cash flows. Thus, an integrated approach that warehouses cross functional data is needed to ensure consistent enterprise-wide risk quantification.

First, consolidate your different source systems spread across your organisation and subsidiaries into one risk data warehouse. Then build your financial datamart so that it can quickly process, clean and standardise your data. Also, ensure that it covers your entire balance sheet – all assets, liabilities and off-balance sheet items. Once you achieve a ‘single source of truth’, build your multiple analytical systems on top of it. This ensures that departments across your organisation will be making assessments and decisions based on consistent, integrated and valid information. Finally, build flexible and agile monitoring and reporting systems that can help members across your firm communicate timely and significant risk management information across your enterprise.

Understand the nature of your risk
The crisis revealed that looking at one risk factor was myopic. Even two was insufficient. Indeed, looking at silo-based risk factors was the problem. The crisis underscored the fact that risks are deeply interrelated – and, as a result, are complex to understand and even more difficult to manage. For example, the credit crisis demonstrated that ALM risk assessment was not sufficiently prospective. This is largely due to the fact that ALM has traditionally been focused on one risk factor, interest rate risk. In order to address this inadequacy, a more holistic ALM paradigm that considers credit cash flows for both net interest income simulation and market value based risk metrics is needed.

Another example was the misunderstanding of the joint dynamics of interest rate risk and credit risk. Just prior to the credit crisis, price became disconnected from value as an asset bubble developed in the sub-prime housing market. This is partially due to the fact that participants in the capital markets did not necessarily have adequate tools to be able to evaluate expected losses. Third, accrual earnings are not only affected by the magnitude and direction of interest rates, they are also affected by delinquency, default, real estate owned (REO) levels, and recoveries.

In order to assess the financial risk for the totality of the balance sheet, robust ALM models need to also include traditional credit risk metrics like Probability of Default (PD), Loss Given Default (LGD), and delinquency in order to forecast future credit migration and default. A new, integrated risk management paradigm should clearly identify capital risk exposures and provide the controls to mitigate them.

Improve your stress testing regime
We live in a dynamic global economy where macroeconomic factors change in the blink of an eye. Regulators and shareholders expect financial institutions to understand the effect these volatile macroeconomic factors have on its business performance. They also expect banks to ensure that there are sufficient capital and liquidity buffers in place to withstand sudden or systemic crises. With higher capital requirements on the horizon, banks are under immense pressure to deploy capital more efficiently in order to off-set higher opportunity costs and prevent passing costs to the consumer. Without the right systems in place, these challenges are significant – and almost insurmountable.

Invest in a stress testing infrastructure that helps you easily measure the impact of changing market conditions at the enterprise level – across the entire balance sheet – and on individual portfolios. This type of stress testing capability will help your firm comply with regulations, (including those outlined in Basel III, Solvency II and Dodd-Frank, for regulatory capital and liquidity) but will also provide your firm with a foundation for strategic planning where your organisation’s executives can test the underlying assumptions for existing and proposed business strategies.

Manage liquidity risk holistically
The crisis proved that effective liquidity risk management practices increase the likelihood that your firm will meet its cash flow obligations when they come due and at a reasonable cost – despite external shocks. To ensure not just solvency and regulatory compliance, but also performance and stability, establish effective governance that measures and controls liquidity risk using forward-looking cashflow projections.

In addition, establish tangible liquidity tolerances and limits and create a scenario-based analysis that permits granular, drill-down opportunities to probe the effectiveness of different strategies. Next, incorporate liquidity costs and benefits into pricing and performance measurement to ensure a strong link between risk taking and the bank’s overall liquidity position. Finally, develop a granular contingency plan that articulates clear responses to multiple liquidity events with increasing levels of severity – that is supported by an adequate cushion on unencumbered liquid assets.

Use FTP to manage performance
Funds Transfer Pricing (FTP) is an indispensible tool for disaggregating the gross margin among the lines of business and creating the desired performance incentives. Technically, FTP is an internal measurement and allocation system that assigns a profit contribution to funds gathered, lent, or invested by a bank.It is a critical component of risk transfer, profitability measurement, capital allocation and specifying business unit incentives as it allocates net interest income to the various products or business units of a bank.

Following the market turbulence that began in 2007, there has been a renaissance in FTP best practices since it was identified as a practice that distinguished banks that performed better than others. However, like any complex internal control system, numerous challenges must be overcome – particularly, gaining buy-in from the lines of business.

There is one important rule of thumb to bear in mind: deciding which transfer-pricing method is most appropriate depends on the use of the information, the understanding and acceptance by the users and the degree of measurement precision desired. Therefore, implementing a fund’s transfer pricing system requires consideration of institution specific balance sheet characteristics and firm dependent requirements and decisions.

In a prescient statement, Former Chairman of the Federal Reserve Alan Greenspan wrote in 2004: “It would be a mistake to conclude that the only way to succeed in banking is through ever-greater size and diversity. Indeed, better risk management may be the only truly necessary element of success in banking.” That statement is as true today as it was in 2004.

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The May – June 2013 Issue

Highest corporate tax
rates in Europe

European countries are scrambling to raise every last penny of funds through taxes. But some countries may have gone too far...

Belgium

Though all business taxes in Belgium can be paid online with little effort and preparation, the rates are still sky-high at 57.7 percent, including a staggering 50.8 percent total rate on profits only in social security contributions.

Belarus

In Belarus, a company spends up to 338 hours annually preparing for and paying ten different taxes and duties. The total tax rate has incredibly been lowered to 60.7 percent, from 117.5 percent in 2008.

France

A company in France pays seven different taxes and duties, the sum of which can amount to 65.7 percent of profits; though President François Hollande has announced a wave of business tax rate cuts coming up.

Estonia

A business in Estonia pays 67.3 percent of profits in tax, 37.2 percent exclusively in social security contributions. The country has gone against the grain in Europe by raising businesses taxes from 48.6 percent in 2008 to the current rates.

Italy

While corporate income tax (IRES) in Italy is limited to 38 percent of taxable profit, a company operating in Italy can expect to pay 14 other taxes and duties, including social security contributions, bringing their total payable tax to 68.7 percent of profits, according to the World Bank.

Norway

Norway taxes motor fuels twice, with a road use tax and a CO2 emissions tax. Combined with strikes in the energy sector that have curbed output, the price of gas at a local pump has soared to $10.12 per gallon.

Turkey

Though Turkey sits on the Suez Canal and neighbours many oil rich countries, the price of a gallon of average gas clocks in at $9.41 in Turkish pumps, because of a 60 percent share of taxes. 

Israel

Like Turkey, Israel is surrounded by oil-rich neighbours, but drills very little itself. Gas prices are controlled by the government, so about half of the $9.28 per gallon goes to taxes.

Hong Kong

There are few gas stations in Hong Kong, but the ones available charge up to 76 percent more per gallon than mainland China, where the government caps the cost of fuel. A gallon at the pumps will cost around $8.61 on the island.

Netherlands

Expensive labour costs make the Dutch petrol prices the dearest in Europe, at $8.26 per gallon; though the 57 percent tax add-ons don’t help.

The credit crisis

8 February 2007
HSBC warns of subprime mortgage losses

2 April 2007
New Century goes bus

14 September 2007
Wholesale markets have dried up

17 March 2008
Rescue of Bear Stearns

7 September 2008
Rescue of Fannie Mae

15 September 2008
Lehman Brothers file for bankruptcy

3 October 2008
US congress approves $700bn bailout

14 February 2009
$787bn stimulus approved by congress

 

The effects of the current financial crisis are global and irrefutable. With the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the domino effect of irresponsible public monetary policies, huge levels of unsustainable debt, and a deregulated financial sector, has escalated to the point where no corner of the globe has been left untouched.

1973 oil crisis

October 1973
Syria and Egypt launch an attack on Israel on Yom Kippur and set off a twenty day war;

1977
US President Carter creates Department of Energy, which develops the US strategic petroleum reserve

 

The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) used their oil reserves as a weapon with the Arab Oil Embargo against those who supported Israel. By January 1974, world oil prices were four times higher than they were at the start of the crisis, especially in the US, and the shock led to a huge drop in the stock market with NYSE losing $97bn in just six weeks.  The embargo lasted five months, and the effects are still seen today.

German hyperinflation

1922-1923

Hyperinflation
1923 – 1924
Stabilisation

 

The trouble began when Germany missed a repatriation payment, worth about one third of the German deficit in this period. Inflation was already high but by 1923 it was raging. Prices doubled within hours, and by late 1923, it cost 200bn marks to buy a single loaf of bread. People burned money as it was cheaper than buying firewood. Germany eventually regained control of its economy when it introduced the Rentenmark into circulation in 1923, and then the Reichmark in 1924.

The Great Depression

1929-1933
The Great Crash
1934-1939
Recovery and Recession

 

After the decadence of the Roaring Twenties, the 1930s saw the biggest economic slump of all time. The stock market crashed on 29 October 1929, and optimism and decadent living tumbled along with the figures. The GDP fell from $103.6bn in 1929, to $66bn in 1934 and the subsequent years of recovery were the most dramatic in US history.

1907 bankers’ panic

1907
Otto Heinze and his brother Augustus Heinze bought shares of United Copper.

 

The stock market was already cautious over the tight money supply, but the US was thrown into a depression after the stock market fell nearly 50 percent from its peak in 1906. The Heinze brothers thought they could influence market shares but ended up bankrupting lenders that provided the financing to buy the stock. A chain reaction left nine institutions bankrupt. By February 1908, the panic was over and the government created the Federal Reserve system, to prevent banks from exercising too much control over the economy.