After the Great Recession, the Great Regression?

Wages, pensions, unemployment insurance, welfare benefits and collective bargaining are under attack in many areas as governments struggle to reduce debts swollen partly by the cost of rescuing banks during the global financial crisis.

The EU, which long trumpeted a European social model with a generous welfare state, social partnership between unions and employers and a work-life balance featuring limited working hours and long paid holidays, has lost its swagger.

“The prevailing philosophy is that people have been paying themselves too much in some countries and we should be more like Germany, where people didn’t get a real pay raise for 10 years,” says John Monks, head of the European Trade Union Confederation.

Unlike bankers and bondholders, the European social model is being given a haircut – a light trim in Nordic countries but a brutal short-back-and-sides in some others.

The roll-back of wages and social benefits is toughest in Greece, Ireland, Romania and Latvia, which are under international bailout programmes designed by the International Monetary Fund and the European Commission.

“The messages are the same: cut wages, public sector wages, minimum wages, reduce benefits and raise retirement ages and also reduce employment protection in certain countries,” Monks told reporters in an interview.

Widening inequality
Under the banner of fiscal sustainability, Europe’s mostly centre-right governments are unwinding some cherished gains of the era of social progress that began after World War Two, at the price of widening inequality.

A “competitiveness pact” which German Chancellor Angela Merkel wants the EU to adopt in March includes a greater harmonisation of retirement ages and the abolition of inflation-indexing of wages, according to a leaked draft.

“You cannot share a single currency with completely divergent social systems,” Merkel told the World Economic Forum in Davos.

She and French President Nicolas Sarkozy ran into resistance when they put the proposals to fellow EU leaders, some of whom saw them as socially explosive.

Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou, one of Europe’s few remaining socialist government chiefs, lamented in Davos that the global crisis had speeded a race to the bottom in labour standards and social protection in the developed world.

Emerging countries such as China and India had achieved competitiveness through low wages, no collective bargaining, little or no healthcare and social insurance and disregard for the environment in exploiting resources and production.

“The question for Europe is: do we emulate that model? … because what we are seeing is on the one hand a race to the bottom at the level of the middle class and working class, and at the other end a race to the top,” Papandreou said.

Greece, rescued from the brink of bankruptcy last May, has adopted deep austerity measures in return for EU/IMF loans, including steep public sector pay and pensions cuts.

The conditions include a rewriting of its labour laws that trade unions and the labour minister say would gut workers’ rights to collective bargaining and job security.

Ireland cut its minimum wage by 11 percent to €7.65 ($10.40) an hour under a 2011 budget that forms the basis of its EU/IMF assistance programme.

Where such measures have not been directly imposed by the IMF and the European Commission, they are being adopted out of fear of having to request a bailout (Spain and Portugal), or of the loss of a top-notch credit rating (Britain and France).

Sarkozy forced through an increase in France’s minimum retirement age to 62 from 60 last year over the resistance of trade unions which staged seven one-day strikes.

Spain and Portugal, under much fiercer bond market pressure, have avoided such labour unrest by negotiating social pacts.

The Spanish government, unions and employers signed an agreement at the start of February that will gradually raise the retirement age to 67 from 65, with pensions based on the last 25 years’ earnings rather than the last 15 years.

The accord included a reform of collective bargaining and measures to fight 20 percent unemployment, particularly targeted at young job-seekers and the elderly unemployed.

No alternative?
In words that recall former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, Merkel says there is no alternative to trimming Europe’s entitlement programmes, although Germans will be spared the harsher measures being enforced elsewhere.

But Monks insists that Berlin’s own example proves there is an alternative.

Germany’s booming growth, and the parallel recovery in the Netherlands and Austria, whose economies are intertwined with Germany’s, is based on long-term investments in high-quality manufacturing industry, he said.

“These are not low-wage countries. They have privileged public servants, strong employment protection laws, strong collective agreements.

“These are not short-term, shareholder, value-driven, flexibilised economies. Their prosperity is driven by long-term investment in technology and innovation,” Monks said.

Moreover, Germany subsidised companies to keep staff on the payroll working short-time when order books were empty, enabling them to retain a skilled workforce for the recovery.

Rein: EU should follow Germany’s lead on reforms

European countries must implement the structural reforms that Germany has already carried out over the last couple of decades to ramp up competitiveness, the European Union’s top economic official said recently.

Economics and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said Germany’s economy entered the crisis on a stronger footing than others within the EU because it had adjusted to the new world order by carrying out broad structural reforms since the 1990s.

“It is important for everyone that other countries now manage to do what Germany and a few other member states have already managed in past years,” Rehn wrote in a guest column in German daily Handelsblatt.

“Several member states, for example Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain, have already entered on an ambitious course of reform and are making progress,” he added.

Germany sees its economy recovering fast from the worst crisis in decades, while peripheral European economies, such as Greece or Spain, continue to be dogged by the debt crisis, financial woes or growing unemployment.

Economists and policymakers have mostly come to the consensus that other EU states should also boost their competitiveness by wage restraint, an overhaul of their labour markets and more structural reforms.

To the dismay of some, German reforms look set to become the boilerplate for the rest of the EU under a new regime of closer economic coordination.

“There is indeed no doubt that the EU’s entire economy benefits from the strength and resilience of the Germany economy,” Rehn said. “Therefore the continuation of structural reforms in Germany that promote growth is important for the whole of Europe.”

Last year, however, Berlin was often criticised for exacerbating economic imbalances within the EU and urged to do more to reduce its big trade surplus with other member states, for example, by spending more.

Egypt has limited war chest to avert financial crisis

Egypt has substantial reserves to avoid an external payments crisis but these could be seriously depleted within weeks if political protests continue, while its banks may struggle to cope with a rush of withdrawals.

In the days after the protests erupted, Egyptians and foreign investors transferred hundreds of millions of dollars out of Egypt, currency traders estimated.

The government had $36bn in foreign reserves at end-December, central bank figures showed. According to a January 27 note by Citigroup, it also had $21bn of additional assets with commercial banks at end-October – its so-called “unofficial reserves”.

These numbers suggest there is no immediate danger of a balance of payments crisis. But scenes of chaos at Cairo’s main airport on Sunday, as both foreigners and Egyptians tried to get flights out of the country, indicated outflows of money could reach damaging levels over the medium term.

Egypt has a financial war chest, “but the war chest is going to be depleted if this situation continues for several weeks rather than a few days,” said John Sfakianakis, chief economist at Banque Saudi Fransi.

“When markets begin to make bets against (the Egyptian pound), it will have a severe impact. The whole fiscal position of the Egyptian economy is going to be put to a very hard test if the violence, rioting continues for several weeks.”

Reversal of flows
Egypt is vulnerable to a reversal of large flows of foreign portfolio investment that have been attracted by high yields on domestic government debt. Barclays Capital estimated foreign holdings of Egyptian assets before the protests were close to $25bn, with roughly half held in Treasury bills and bonds.

Foreign direct investment is based on long-term planning and is less likely to be influenced by the political unrest. Egypt drew $6.76 billion of such investment in the last fiscal year to June 30, of which $3.6bn went to the petroleum sector.

But the damage from any extended disruption to tourism could be considerable; Egypt earned $11.59bn from tourism last fiscal year. It ran a current account deficit of $802m in the July-September quarter of 2010, and because of tourism the deficit is likely to be much higher in the current quarter.

Equally worrying is the risk that middle-class and wealthy Egyptians will send more of their savings abroad. These outflows might match or over the long term, even exceed money pulled out by foreign portfolio investors.

Official figures are not available but a dealer at a medium-sized bank based in Cairo, who declined to be named, said clients at his medium-sized bank alone had transferred $150m out of the country in two days. Some bankers said total outflows of funds from Egypt might have been at least $500m per day during the first week of the campaigns.

If outflows continued at that speed without accelerating, Egypt could lose over a quarter of its official reserves within a month.