Pakistan and China join forces

In April, Chinese Premier Xi Jinping received a jovial welcome upon his arrival in Islamabad; it was the first visit by a Chinese leader to Pakistan in nine years. The celebratory reception can be attributed to China’s upcoming investment in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) – a $46bn project stretching 3,000km and consisting of a network of roads, railways and maritime ports. In a bid to lift Pakistan out of energy poverty, the venture also entails oil and gas pipelines, as well as alternative power sources.

The CPEC will be connected from the Xinjiang region in western China to the Gwadar port in southern Pakistan, running through the latter’s poorly developed Baluchistan province and Lahore. Expectations are high in regards to the economic advancement of various impoverished areas in Pakistan, while China stands to gain considerably, starting with the creation of a vital passageway for exports through the region. “For the first time, China is going to become a strategic economic partner of Pakistan”, Pakistan’s Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal says. “Gwadar is the shortest link to Europe, Africa and Middle East, [making it] a very attractive proposition for China and for its competitiveness.”

Pakistan’s annual GDP growth rate, percent

1.6%

2010

2.7%

2011

3.5%

2012

4.4%

2013

Energetic promise
Along with oil and gas pipelines, it is estimated that the project will bring around 3,000 megawatts of coal, wind and solar power to Pakistan. Improving Pakistan’s energy infrastructure is crucial for the incumbent government, given the level of social unrest and political discord that frequent and lengthy power outages cause. In some areas, blackouts can last up to 18 hours a day, which often result in the disruption of commercial activities and violent protests – factors contributing to the 2013 electoral defeat of Shri Pranab Mukherjee.

According to the Asian Development Bank, power cuts reduce Pakistan’s GDP growth by an estimated two percent each year, thereby consistently stunting the country’s economic development and preventing the seven percent growth rate needed to generate sufficient employment levels and tackle poverty.

Notwithstanding the favourable prospect of Chinese funding, energy issues in Pakistan cannot be resolved merely through an injection of foreign investment. “The benefit of China’s energy investments will be short-lived if the demand side problems are not fixed”, says Dr Ijaz Nabi, Country Director for the International Growth Centre in Pakistan. “We have to find the political will to make those who consume electricity pay for it.”

Unbilled electricity consumption has long afflicted the sector, with many citizens routing power to their homes illegally and paying bribes in order to continue this harmful cycle. At the end of 2012, the debt of Pakistan’s energy industry totalled $9.1bn, which is equivalent to around four percent of GDP, states a report written by the country’s Planning Commission and funded by USAID. This revenue shortfall has a domino affect throughout the electrical grid, making the system simply unworkable. Therefore, unless these issues are also addressed, greater energy supply may very well lead to even more problems for the afflicted sector.

Pakistani Government officials are optimistic that the economic corridor will spur a string of investment in the surrounding areas, which will be encouraged even more so by improved energy reliability – an issue that has long deterred foreign parties. Plans for mineral processing plants and industrial zones are also underway, potentially generating a further upsurge in economic activity.

Job creation is therefore also expected to follow, which is a key facet for Pakistan’s development, particularly given its rapidly expanding population: “It is critical that we make the best use of the increase in energy, which means providing most of it to the manufacturing industry, especially exporters, to improve our trade balance and create the greatest number of productive jobs”, says Nabi. It is essential therefore that the government places the labour market at the forefront of its economic strategy, supporting and funding training and education opportunities for newly-created roles.

China’s strategy
It is unlikely that direct trade to Pakistan will be enhanced through the economic corridor – of course, there may be an increase in demand for Chinese steel and construction materials, nevertheless, “the aggregate volumes are not really large enough to move the needle for China’s overall trade picture” (see Fig. 1), says Andrew Polk, Chief Asia Economist for The Conference Board. But this is not a driving factor in Beijing’s involvement in the project – the route to resource-rich Central Asia however is, for it can provide a significant boost to commerce and fiscal growth for China’s poorer western provinces.

It will also reduce the distance from Western China to the world market; “A look at the map shows how cost-effective this route is compared to China’s great ports on the Pacific coast”, says Nabi. China’s access for commercial vessels to the strategically advantageous Gwadar Port will also play a noteworthy role in supporting future trade.

The corridor also has symbolic connotations, and as such lays the ground for closer financial and political collaboration with relatively isolated states, such as Afghanistan and the ‘Stans.’ This is a significant asset for China’s long-term economic expansion, particularly given its slowing growth and the potential of the region. Moreover, supporting the economic development of neighbouring countries will boost China’s financial standing, as those surrounding states will naturally increase their purchases of Chinese goods and participate in more regional partnerships.

The CPEC provides an additional incentive for Chinese companies to extend further afield and expand their business models. Then there is the utilisation of its excess industrial capacity, which China stands to gain from considerably; “Putting idle machinery to use in another country helps to alleviate the domestic burden of idle productive capacity”, Polk explains, “which is currently one of the major constraints on China’s growth, so removing that excess capacity by building infrastructure in other countries may help to accelerate a stabilisation in China’s industrial sector”. Given such advantages for China, it would seem that the benefactor is gaining from the project as much as the recipient, and some may argue, even more so.

Pakistani commuters drive past a welcoming billboard featuring pictures of visiting Chinese President Xi Jinping (c) and his Pakistani counterpart Mamnoon Hussain (l) and Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif (r) in Islamabad
Pakistani commuters drive past a welcoming billboard featuring pictures of visiting Chinese President Xi Jinping (c) and his Pakistani counterpart Mamnoon Hussain (l) and Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif (r) in Islamabad

Security issues
Investing heavily in infrastructure and helping to develop Pakistan’s most underdeveloped areas can significantly improve the lives of poverty-stricken citizens, tackling the root causes of terrorism and reducing the spread of political radicalism. This incentive for China is heightened further by the presence of the insurgent group, the East Turkestan Islamic Movement, which operates in north-western China alongside Pakistani terrorist organisations. As Gwadar and Baluchistan are areas that are proximal to ungoverned tribal areas – where militants operate and young men are targeted – they are pivotal in the efforts for regional stabilisation.

Chinese funding for the economic corridor will be the most financial assistance Pakistan has ever received and far surpasses that which has been granted by the US. Although the project is still in its initial stages, there are already large disparities with the aid given by the US between 2009 and 2012 in order to deter terrorism. The $7.5bn package was simply insufficient to make a marked difference in impoverished areas, while the funds were spread too thinly to provide an impetus to the country’s development. It would seem that Beijing has learnt a lot from this lesson, providing “a much larger financial commitment – and it is focused on a specific area, it has a signature infrastructure focus and it is a decades-long commitment”, said Xi in an article written for the Pakistani media and distributed prior to his visit.

“China already has been much more successful in Pakistan than the US, whether China can maintain this successful record is still uncertain”, says Dr Yinhong Shi, Professor of International Relations at the Renmin University of China. “Especially since 9/11, the US has invested a lot of resources to try to make Pakistan more pro-American and also increase investment stability – but I think that the US failed. Of course, whether China’s project and economic corridor can really increase the stability within Pakistan still has to be tested in the future – and Pakistan is a very complicated country.”

There is yet another prong to the security aspect of the economic corridor; “China has a strong interest in Pakistan’s stability because it can be a reliable ally in China’s global rivalry with India”, comments Nabi. The project therefore enables China to extend its strategic influence in the region, a tactic which is further evidenced by the less-publicised clause of the deal which involves the purchase of eight Chinese submarines, allowing its ally to counter India’s dominance in the Indian Ocean, thereby tipping the regional balance of power in China’s favour.

Extending influence
China has a lot invested into making this project work and helping to accelerate the rate of Pakistan’s economic development. With lessons learnt from others, most notably the US, there appear to be grounds for optimism. Yet, various structural changes are also needed by the ruling government in Pakistan, coupled with a holistic commitment to sustainable development: “China’s large package is thus a God send for the political leadership. But we need to think beyond the election cycle and make sure that our long-term development objectives and strategic interests are addressed”, says Nabi.

Lowering youth unemployment is crucial, not only for the economic boost it entails, but also for tackling the deep-rooted social issues in Pakistan that currently plague the country and incite insurgent activities, which ultimately spill over to neighbouring countries and impact the entire region.

With the economic corridor providing greater connectivity and a flourish of economic activity in all areas that the route leads to and surrounds, the project has great geopolitical significance. The region seems to be at a pivotal stage in its history and advancement – given its continued development and integration, its strength should not be underestimated. The project also marks another step that China has taken in gaining further influence within the regional context, and consequently the global arena.

China is progressively forging closer ties with its neighbours through the implementation of strategic manoeuvres. The huge injection of investment and soon-to-be established transportation links is an example of such a stratagem – propping up its long-standing relationship with Pakistan considerably, while bringing it closer to Central Asia.

China’s network of power and allegiance therefore continues to strengthen in Asia and adjoining areas, gradually replacing the US in terms of presence and financial might. Together with the formation of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, it seems that China is indeed steadily rising to become the world’s new superpower.

The Fed isn’t confident enough to raise interest rates

After the conclusion of its latest policy meeting over the past few days, the Federal Reserve has released a statement outlining its assessment of the US economy. While economic indicators are generally positive, the Fed – as expected – says that it will maintain the current low interest rate for the time being.

Since the last Federal Open Market Committee meeting in June 2015, the statement claims that “economic activity has been expanding moderately in recent months.” It notes that there has been an improvement in the housing sector and moderate growth in household spending. The labour market is noted as improving, with increased job gains and declining unemployment. Likewise, the Fed says that “a range of labour market indicators suggests that underutilization of labour resources has diminished since early this year.”

Inflation is expected to remain low in the near term

There does, however, remain a few concerns. Business fixed investment and net exports are noted as staying soft, while inflation is currently running below the Fed’s longer-run objective. This is blamed on a fall in energy prices and “decreasing prices of non-energy imports.” Inflation is expected to remain low in the near term, but anticipated “to rise gradually toward two percent over the medium term as the labour market improves further and the transitory effects of earlier declines in energy and import prices dissipate.”

Therefore, with its eyes on maximum employment and two percent inflation, the Fed concludes that the current “zero to a quarter percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate.” The Fed feels it appropriate to raise rates only after further improvements in the labour market and when it is confident that inflation will “move back to its two percent objective over the medium term.” However, it is further noted that even after employment and inflation targets are met, wider economic conditions may still result in lower than usual federal fund rates.

Shell announces thousands of job cuts to counter oil drama

Shell announced on July 30 that, as part of its on-going cost cutting exercise, it will shed 6,500 jobs in 2016 and reel in capital spending plans by 20 percent, or $7bn. The move falls in step with similar such actions taken across the industry, as the fossil fuels business looks to mitigate the impact of a crude price slump and make savings where possible.

The executive later stressed that the company’s planned combination with BG would shore up the company’s cashflow

“We have to be resilient in a world where oil prices remain low for some time, whilst keeping an eye on recovery,” said CEO Ben van Beurden in a statement. “We’re taking a prudent approach, pulling on powerful financial levers to manage through this downturn, always making sure we have the capacity to pay attractive dividends for shareholders.”

The executive later stressed that the company’s planned combination with BG would shore up the company’s cashflow and make Shell a global leader in LNG and deep water innovation, while also turning the combined entity into a “simpler and more profitable company”. In the statement, van Beurden confirmed that the BG transaction is on track and once completed would “deliver better returns to shareholders”.

Shell’s outlook shows that caution remains the go-to sentiment for much of the fossil fuels business, as low oil prices bring a host of planned projects to grinding halt and threaten to do so in the long-term. The spending cuts also bring the combined value of cancelled and delayed oil and gas projects to around $200bn, and many, including Shell, expect to make further reductions in the years ahead, should the price of oil fail to pick up.

Latin America’s real estate market attracts investment

The Latin-American economies of Peru, Colombia and Chile have all previously struggled with political and economic uncertainty, which prevented many industries from taking off. However, this has changed significantly in the last two decades.

From the early 1990s and beyond – and especially after the Asian financial crises – these three nations have focused their efforts in developing the elements of market oriented economies, fully accelerating the process of integrating their economies to the world, and creating important middle-income classes, which create demand for goods and services, and increased the dynamic of the real estate market.

These countries are now facing breaking points in their process of development, creating huge opportunities for companies across different segments of their economies. World Finance spoke to Andres Pacheco, Director of Real Estate, Credicorp Capital, to find out more.

What is it that makes Peru, Colombia and Chile’s growth prospects so advantageous compared to most emerging markets?
These three countries are the successful market-oriented stories of Latin America. With different levels, the three countries have fairly well-run democracies, a good level of openness to international investors and well-managed economies that have attracted significant flows of foreign investments in the last decade. These economies are also well position from the macroeconomic point of view for the changes coming in the international economic environment.

Most emerging countries have missed opportunities for growth because of the lack of an adequate regulatory framework

How has the housing deficit hampered growth in these countries?
Even in advanced countries – where the market has met most demands in real estate – the sector has been a huge contributor to GDP growth. Most emerging countries have missed opportunities for growth because of the lack of an adequate regulatory framework and defence of the rule of law. But over the last decade reforms have developed the capital and mortgages market; improved access to basic infrastructure among others; and are un-tapping the huge opportunities of large countries with unmet demand.

How has Credicorp Capital helped alleviate the problems facing the real estate sector?
Well, the real estate asset management market formed fairly recently in these countries. Our funds there are helping to channel capital from the national saving (pension funds) to the development of real estate projects, helping developers to increase their capacity to produce the needed area, and other companies to focus their capital in their core business, improving efficiencies in the economy.

That amount of capital devoted to the sector is still small compared to what other global institutional investors normally do, but if these countries are to meet the demands of the growing middle classes, they need to significantly increase the amount of capital that its invested in the real estate sector. We are helping to increase these amounts.

How successful have the Credicorp Capital real estate investment funds been in boosting the real estate market?
The amount of capital already invested is relatively small, especially when compared to the size of the market and its needs, but Credicorp funds have managed to help it in developing the capital markets for real estate funds, allowing the developers to undertake more projects and on a far larger scale; generating the assets that the countries demand.

What is the Inmoval fund, and how has it impacted on the real estate market over the last few years?
Inmoval is Credicorp Capital’s commercial real estate fund, and it has invested more than $250m since it began five years ago, with an average annual return above 11 percent. This has resulted in investors continuously investing. Additionally, due to its track record, institutional investors agreed to invest in a second fund focused only in residential real estate, with equal results.

Credicorp Capital recently closed a $120m fund through Peru’s real estate arm. What did this entail?
The $120m fund was closed through Peru’s real estate arm with Peruvian institutional investors who bet on the sector and on the team created by Credicorp Capital to take advantage of such opportunities.

What does the future hold for the housing market in Peru, Colombia and Chile?
These countries still produce less housing units yearly than households are formed, and it has been like these for several decades. It is therefore likely that the number of units developed every year will increase steadily in the following years, as long as the finance and the markets are developed.

Credicorp finds opportunity in Latin America’s burgeoning economy

For decades, Latin America has been the world’s quarry. Here you can find a diversified supply of agricultural and mineral products, from soybeans, meat and coffee to copper, silver and oil. However, this situation has made the region very sensitive to its prices. The region’s economic and financial performance dances to the rhythm of the evolution of commodity prices, with correlations of 0.57 with next year’s GDP, 0.52 with equity and 0.53 with foreign exchange. In the last year, this strong link has made this part of the world a high-return region in the eyes of financial markets.

These high correlations are consequences of structural issues regarding certain Mercado Integrado Latinoamericano (MILA) countries – traditionally made up of Mexico, Peru, Colombia and Chile. Peru’s share of mineral exports still hover above 50 percent (similar to the state of oil in Colombia and copper in Chile), while non-traditional exports are around 30 percent (and for Colombia this is decreasing).

What makes matters worse is the fact that the share of these products on fiscal revenue for each of these countries is even higher. Therefore, an abrupt reduction in commodity prices has a real impact on economic activity and fiscal position. This means that, in the short term, equity returns for these countries are expected to be slightly lower than their neutral return, in line with such a commodity downswing.

Consumption patterns
Nevertheless, there are promising signs that the dance might slow down in the next couple of years, especially for MILA countries. These countries have increased their reliance on domestic demand, which in our metaphor is equivalent to dancing to their own beat. Between the years 2000 and 2013, domestic demand relative to GDP increased its importance by 20.2, 8.3 and 10.4 percent for Chile, Peru and Colombia respectively. These countries also have a demographic bonus that, according to the UN, will keep their dependency ratios under 60 percent for the next few decades (see Fig. 1). This change will have an enormous impact over consumption patterns, market size and even national competitiveness.

Domestic demand increase relative to GDP

20.2%

Chile

8.3%

Peru

10.4%

Colombia

Secondly, since the 1980s, these countries have implemented reforms that have reduced their vulnerability to external shocks and enhanced the competitiveness of their non-tradable sectors. While the average current account deficit in the 1980s was 4.5 percent of GDP for these countries, in the last 10 years this deficit has been just one percent of GDP. Furthermore, the average inflation for these countries in the 1980s was 200 percent, while in the last 10 years it has barely surpassed three percent. The average government net debt has reduced from 24.1 percent in 2000 to 7.6 percent in 2013 (the foreign currency denominated debt followed a similar pattern).

Better still, each of these three countries has reason to believe in a more diversified and solid growth path for the next few years. Although Colombia’s oil prices accounted for 53 percent of its exports for 2014, its bet on the 4G Road Infrastructure Programme (47 projects worth $25bn) will reduce its dependence on oil and increase the competitiveness of the rest of the economy.

In a similar way, in order to reduce its tango with metal prices, Peru has recently updated its national strategic plan based on improvements in education (increasing expenditure to six percent of GDP), a reduction of the infrastructure gap (through private public partnerships) and productive diversification through attachment to global value chains and regulatory simplification.

Finally, while Chile still relies on copper prices, its track record of sound macroeconomic policies, institutional strength and development of non-traditional exports (salmon and wine come to mind), foster opportunities for a reduced role of copper in its future growth.

A blessing in disguise
The current downswing in commodity prices may be a blessing in disguise because it has put these countries’ equity at a very attractive valuation relative to the past, with a price-earnings ratio of 13.7 compared to a five year median of 15.2. Meanwhile its peers, both in emerging Asia and EMEA, are slightly over this five-year median. However, selectivity is going to be key in order to identify the firms that will rebound faster and stronger from the current level.

This decoupling from the commodity dance has been even clearer for fixed income assets. On the one hand, funding through external debt for MILA and in general Latin American governments has been switching to local debt financing, which at the end of 2014 represented a stock of almost $2trn, only surpassed by Asia.

This change has substantial implications for the insulation of government finances from commodity shocks. A local market with better liquidity and depth has been created, since today local institutional investors (pension funds, insurance companies, mutual funds and banks) share a common platform with international investors to trade and improve the secondary market, and benchmarking to local corporate debt. In addition, governments may now match their funding in the same currency as they expend the resources and issue long-term bonds (even tenors longer than 30 years), which diminishes the currency and duration mismatch in fiscal accounts. Finally, it has created a ‘high-beta’ asset class to which international investors are increasingly adding exposure, in spite of the correlation with commodity prices.

On the corporate fixed income side, the participation of MILA and Latin American companies in global US dollars denominated REGS/144A corporate debt market has skyrocketed: over the last 10 years corporate annual issuance has increased more than 700 percent and the outstanding of corporate debt now exceeds $400bn, representing almost 35 percent of the asset class benchmark. Not so bad for a region with such correlation to commodities.

In fact, the truth is that today Latin American metals, mining and energy sectors represent less than 25 percent of the benchmark, with the remainder more fundamentally dependant on internal demand. This increasing importance of the internal demand driver is the main reason companies that achieve certain critical size and the ability to access international funding come to the primary market every year, regardless whether they have an investment grade rating or they want to issue 10 or 30-year bonds.

MILA dependency ratios

Equity space
As for equities, the impact of commodity prices across government debt, both external and local, and corporate debt, has brought an opportunity to gain exposure to a region where gradually, the fundamental dependence on commodities is expected to decrease with time.

In the equity space, the investment environment since the second half of 2014 has been characterised by extreme correlation, regardless of company fundamentals. For example, the main Colombian equities performed in a very narrow range, losing between 27 percent and 30 percent in US dollars, regardless of each company’s industry, as a result of the 50 percent drop in the oil price (the country’s principal export). This steep drop in value includes companies whose fundamentals are unrelated to the oil price (such as certain electric utilities), and even companies that actually benefit from the decrease in commodity prices.

A case in point is Avianca, the leading Andean regional airline, which fell 28 percent in the second half of 2014 despite facing a significant margin increase as a result of the collapse in the price of jet fuel. Avianca now trades at a 50 percent price-earnings discount compared to global airlines. This increase in correlation, and the accompanying disregard of country and company fundamentals, seems to be the result of foreign capital flows exiting the Latin American markets indiscriminately. This can be seen in the diminishing assets under management invested in regional exchange-traded funds, such as Colombia’s iColcap and Peru’s EPUs (iShares Peru).

In this environment, Credicorp has acted as the ‘liquidity provider’ in the Andean markets. Our fund managers have been buying selectively in the face of massive liquidations by foreign investors that, in our opinion, are unable to differentiate between the companies and sectors that will be affected by the commodity collapse and those that will not. We believe the current investment environment represents an opportunity for patient, long-term investors, who can weather the volatility related to market flows and wait for value to surface.

Sovereign wealth funds pick up in popularity

First appearing around the midpoint of last century, sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) have long occupied a significant space in financial markets. However it’s only in recent years that these rainy-day funds have come into their own.

Speaking at the 68th CFA Institute Annual Conference in May, the former CIO of the Korea Investment Corporation (South Korea’s SWF) Scott Kalb offered up some choice statistics on what he called an “active and powerful” opportunity. First was that at the end of 2014 the world’s 74 highest ranking SWFs held a colossal $7.7trn in assets, $3.3tn greater than in 2010 and significantly more than the $500bn held in 1990, according to the IMF. Next, Kalb remarked that 53 SWFs had been established since 2000, 40 since 2005, and concluded with studies to show that SWFs and sovereign pension funds averaged at over $100bn under management.

“Sovereign wealth funds represent a large and growing pool of savings. An increasing number of these funds are owned by natural resource–exporting countries and have a variety of objectives, including intergenerational equity and macroeconomic stabilisation”, according to a World Bank working paper on long-term development finance. “Traditionally, these funds have invested in external assets, especially securities traded in major markets. But the persistent infrastructure financing gap in developing countries has motivated some governments to encourage their sovereign wealth funds to invest domestically.”

The points here are proof, if ever it were needed, that SWFs have become a fixture of modern day financial markets, and on a day when asset managers are fighting for quick returns, SWFs could alter, perhaps fundamentally, the way in which institutional capital is managed.

$7.7trn

Assets held by 74 highest ranking SWFs, 2014

53

New SWFs established since 2000

Much attention has been paid recently to the rate at which assets are gaining, though the ambition for any SWF is not simply to stockpile funds, but secure a future for generations ahead, and it’s in emerging Asia, Africa and the Middle East that this focus can best be seen. Where major resource discoveries can often bring both volatility and corruption for host nations, a well-balanced SWF can keep a lid on wayward ambitions and protect wealth far into the future. Faced with a much-changed landscape from that of 10, five or even one year ago, institutional investors are evolving in what ways they can to generate meaningful returns, though often to little avail.

The intergenerational focus of SWFs, meanwhile, makes them a very different proposition to that of their privately owned counterparts, yet these government-run alternatives are more closely aligned with traditional asset managers today than they perhaps ever have been.

Studies show that SWFs are dabbling, increasingly so, in opportunistic investments, if only to keep tabs on the latest changes to capital markets, and alternative investments account for a larger share of the pie. Developing nations, particularly those rich in natural resources, are finding also that SWFs can serve as a key source of funding in low price environments and lay the foundations for sustainable development. Add to that a growing tendency to keep investments local, and “the secretive and exclusive subset of the institutional investor community”, as labelled by Preqin, has undergone a quite extraordinary transformation.

Norway out in front
“One day the oil will run out, but the return on the fund will continue to benefit the Norwegian population”, according to Norges Bank Investment Management, whose job it is to manage Norway’s Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG).

Currently the world’s largest SWF, the fund has proven itself a precious financial buffer in times of economic hardship, best seen at the beginning of the year when assets peaked and oil prices fell through the floor. At the same time, the total number of assets under management tipped the NOK5.1trn ($675.88bn) mark, equivalent to over NOK1m in local currency for every member of the population, amounting to a significant – albeit essentially meaningless – milestone for the savings pot. Fast-forward to the end of 2014, with the fund sitting at $893bn (see Fig. 1), it’s little surprise that new entrants to the subset often cite the GPFG as an example of how best to manage state-owned assets.

Another important development arrived recently when the country allowed those working at the fund to invest in real estate, rather than equities and fixed income only. Marking a paradigm shift, not just for the GPFG but the wider SWF community, over two percent of the fund’s investments fall on real estate currently, with the percentage primed to reach five in the near future.

“It’s a global trend, the shift toward real assets that provide investors with diversification, inflation hedging, asset backing and more operational effort than some bargained for”, according to PwC’s The Real Estate Equation. “Real estate attracts a significant proportion of global capital raising the challenge of bridging global demand with local supply and micro environments with macroeconomics. Sovereign wealth funds certainly face this challenge.”

Fig 1

In essence, what the focus on real assets brings is a far greater emphasis on local investment. SWFs, historically speaking, have invested overseas to hedge against home-grown crises, though their role in supporting domestic development means that they’ve tended recently to champion subjects closer to home. True, domestic objectives can sometimes diverge from the greater goal of capital preservation, but improvements on home soil often go some way towards mitigating long-term risks and cementing a stable base on which future generations can build.

Infrastructure investments
Closely in keeping with this focus on local investment and real assets is one on infrastructure, for which their long-term investment horizons are well suited. “Potentially competitive returns in developing economies and the sharp reductions in traditional sources of long-term financing after the financial crisis have contributed to fuel a growing interest among national authorities in permitting, and even encouraging, the national SWF to invest domestically, in particular to finance long-term infrastructure investments”, reads a World Bank report on the constraints of infrastructure financing. “Such pressure is inevitable, considering the fact that many countries with substantial savings, several of them recent resource-exporters, also have urgent needs. A number of existing SWFs now invest a portion of their portfolios domestically and more are being created to play this role.”

Preqin estimates show that 60 percent of SWFs allocated capital to infrastructure projects in 2014 (see Fig. 2), far greater than the 16 percent in 2011, as participating countries look inwards when arriving at how they might distribute capital. “Alternative assets have emerged as an increasingly important portion of the portfolios of many sovereign wealth fund investors over recent years, as these investors seek to diversify their portfolios and acquire assets that can generate yield and help them meet their long-term objectives”, according to the data and research firm.

The case in point can best be seen in resource rich nations, where fast-growing mining sectors require also that host nations improve their infrastructural competencies. In Abu Dhabi, some $30bn has been allocated to infrastructure, and both Angola and Nigeria have done much the same, albeit to a lesser degree, with $5bn and $1bn respectively. Occupied not so much with the pursuit of liquidity, long-term returns such as those on infrastructure have been made to appear all the more attractive in light of the financial crisis and recent oil price shock.

Fig 2

 

Changed reception
Any decisions made by SWFs in this instance are in keeping more so with development finance institutions than they are say hedge funds, and sustainable economic development not liquidity takes precedent in the here and now. Going back to before the financial crisis hit, SWFs were met with a note of caution. However, the part played by these government-run investment vehicles in the aftermath, both in developed and developing nations, means that these government-run investment vehicles are received more positively.

“It is difficult and unwise to generalise about the (financial) performance of SWFs and my expertise is with respect to transparency and accountability where the trend is toward improvement by many funds”, says Edwin Truman, economist and nonresident senior fellow of the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

It’s worth noting also that not all funds have been resilient recently. Truman points to Russian funds, which have been raided for political purposes, and oil-based funds, which are suffering reduced inflows. “But some funds have I think swum against the tide of general market caution”, he says.

Though blighted still by criticisms of inadequate governance and poor transparency, what’s certain is that SWFs have carved out a niche in global financial markets since the crisis. And in a period when past funding models of a more traditional sort are failing, SWFs and their long-investment horizons mean they’re well endowed to thrive in the present climate. With transparency and accountability much improved on years past, the new inward facing nature of SWFs means that they have fast become an important part of sustainable economic development.

Democratic Republic of Congo becomes Africa’s unexpected success story

Nestled within Central Africa, the Democratic Republic of Congo, one of the continent’s largest democracies, has enjoyed tremendous economic growth over the past three years. Under the leadership of President Joseph Kabila and Prime Minister Augustin Matata Ponyo Mapon, the once war-afflicted nation is now becoming a beacon of prosperity. Throughout the massive nation, approximately the size of Western Europe, development is evident as the middle-class continues to rise, infrastructure projects develop and investors looking for sustainable returns come by the droves in search of opportunities.

The Democratic Republic of Congo has been one of the leading economies of Sub-Saharan Africa and is showing no signs of slowing down. “I was impressed by the progress made over the last five years in bringing about economic stability and robust growth, which resulted in the DRC recording the third fastest growth rate in the world in 2014”, said David Lipton, First Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). “I was also encouraged by the authorities’ intention to build on this record and to transform the Democratic Republic of Congo into a more inclusive economy.”

Diversifying the economy and developing human capital have both been a hallmark of
Ponyo’s campaigns

As this growth compounds, cityscapes throughout the country are beginning to take shape, while the middle class is growing at an unbelievable rate. The livelihood of Congolese citizens is improving and this change is directly translating into improved human development indicators, as well as higher rates of education and healthcare.

Known for its abundance of natural resources, estimated to be worth more than $24trn, the nation has progressed significantly as its economy has diversified to expand its vast agricultural and human capital potential.

The meteoric rise of one of Africa’s largest and most prosperous nations has been underway for years. Underpinned by strong governance, a diversified economy and an ambitious modernisation plan, the nation of 70 million is on the cusp of an unprecedented emergence as an African superpower. The rise of the Democratic Republic of Congo signals an evolution of the continent as a whole and offers a look at what Africa can come to represent.

An economic superpower
The economic state of the Democratic Republic of Congo is at one of the best points in its history. In 2013, the nation’s GDP grew by 8.5 percent according to the World Bank (see Fig. 1), while growth in 2014 was measured at 9.5 percent. Prudent monetary policies have not only encouraged this growth, but have kept inflation at one percent, the lowest inflation rate exhibited since the nation’s independence over half a century ago. “Our economic performance is the strongest since the 1960s”, said Prime Minister Ponyo. “We have an inflation rate from January to the present of just 0.3 percent.”

In addition to the impressive growth figures, other macroeconomic indicators show encouraging signs of progress. The nation’s currency, the Congolese franc, has remained stable, the national wealth has doubled due to more efficient tax collection, and, perhaps most importantly, public and private investment has increased significantly.

To promote sustainable economic growth, Ponyo and President Kabila have worked closely with members of the international community using evidence-based analysis to enact legislation and improve the country’s business climate.

These changes range from creating transparent processes, minimising bureaucracy when starting businesses and creating anti-corruption programmes. The changes, among many others that are still in progress, have been instrumental in creating an investor-friendly environment and opening up numerous sectors throughout the country to private investors.

Kabila’s latest example of creating a more favourable business climate can be seen in his efforts to tighten controls on granting mining licenses to prevent abuse and fight corruption. Improper control mechanisms have led to underdevelopment that has cost the country in tax revenue and in the livelihood of citizens throughout the mineral-rich portions of the nation.

According to Kabila, “We need to put an end to the paradox which sees huge mining potential, and ever more intense mining activity, but only modest benefits for the state.”
He later added that some of the mismanagement “had negative consequences for the improvement of the population’s living conditions”.

Congolese workers at a processing plant used to extract copper, cobalt and iron
Congolese workers at a processing plant used to extract copper, cobalt and iron

Mining matters
In July 2014, the Democratic Republic of Congo earned full membership to the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI), the global organisation promoting good management of oil, gas and mineral resources.

“Despite all the challenges facing the country, the Congolese people have been working together to bring transparency and accountability to the management of their natural resources”, said Clare Short, the group’s chair.

Diversifying the economy and developing human capital have both been a hallmark of Ponyo’s campaigns. “While the country is very wealthy in natural endowments regarding mineral resources, it is imperative to diversify beyond this wealth alone to propel the Democratic Republic of Congo to a state that can compete economically on a global scale”, he said.

Mining, for example, has attracted foreign investors from the US, South Africa, India and Turkey, which in turn, has fuelled growth within supporting sectors such as banking, digital commerce, and mobile services. The Democratic Republic of Congo possesses world-class quantities of copper, diamonds and coltan, a dull, black mineral used in virtually every electronic device.

“Building a strategic vision for long-term development requires sound political leadership, tireless reform efforts aimed at reinforcing the quality of the administration and vital institutions, and adhering to the rules and practices of good governance regarding our natural resources”, said Ponyo.

Already a vital industry throughout the nation, agriculture contributed 20.6 percent to the country’s GDP in 2013 (see Fig. 2), but Ponyo is seeking to boost the sector even further. His aim is to provide the Congolese ample opportunity to create an agricultural sector unrivalled in Africa.

Annual GDP growth

By using the nation’s water, land and energy resources, the Democratic Republic of Congo can develop an industry of commercial farms offering fishing, livestock and vegetable production, connected to a coherent network of production and food distribution.

Strategic investments and planning can potentially propel the nation’s economy even higher by fortifying the export market, while also helping the fight against hunger and malnutrition throughout the country. These investments, both by the government and the private sector, will provide thousands of jobs bring broad education to the masses and enable a generation of Congolese to develop and become self-sufficient.

Earlier this year, the country hosted a conference in Kinshasa to address the role of agriculture to the growth of the continent as a whole. The conference – called Towards an Inclusive Growth: A New Vision for Africa’s Agricultural Transformation – brought together more than 300 people from across Africa, Europe and the US. Attendees included entrepreneurs, financiers, officials, donor funds, NGOs, foundations and farmer organisations.

To support agriculture and encourage private-sector participation, Ponyo developed and launched a nationwide programme known as the National Agricultural Investment Plan (NIPA). NIPA’s main objectives are ensuring food security and developing the agri-business sector. Its first project will be the development of 16 large agro-parks.

According to Councillor John Mususa, one of the leaders spearheading the project, “These parks will serve as an important part of the country’s rehabilitation and construction process by providing access to agricultural inputs and by combining laboratories, training facilities, storage centres and health facilities.”

“The agricultural sector is where we can have the most significant impact on the population”, said Ponyo.

Energy sector
As the Democratic Republic of Congo looks to capitalise on its economic momentum, the nation’s energy sector is attracting the attention of international investors especially as its large-scale mining and industrial sectors continue to see significant growth.

Paramount to the energy future of the Democratic Republic of Congo and the African continent is the Inga Dam Project, which is one of the largest infrastructure projects ever undertaken. The centrepiece of the project, the Grand Inga Dam, will be the world’s largest hydropower project and is an instrumental part of Africa’s future energy strategy.

The dam has the potential to generate 38,000MW of energy at a cost of $80bn. It will help power South Africa, Botswana and Angola, and will ultimately be able to export power to Europe. The first part of the project, Inga III, will top off at a nameplate capacity of 4,800MW.

In 2013 the US formally expressed interest in joining the project and is currently engaged with foreign counterparties as studies are being conducted. Rajiv Shah, the Head of the US Agency for International Development (USAID), visited the site of the future dam in 2013 with Ponyo and pledged financial aid to help develop the project.

After visiting the Inga site, Shah remarked that in addition to seeing progress in building the country, his visit was met with numerous positive signals in terms of peace and the promotion of good governance. “The reforms in the electricity sector are signals that reassured USAID and other partners to join this project”, said Shah, who welcomed the significant progress made to improve the business climate. Shah also encouraged the nation’s leadership to stay on the path of reform and substantial innovation to attract more external partners for large-scale projects.

While the amount of money to be earmarked from the US to support the Inga Dam project is still being negotiated, officials note that the task will have support from both the public and private sectors. According to Eric Mbala, Head of the Congolese National Electric Company (SNEL), the development work for the Inga III project will begin in October of 2015.

Democratic Republic of Congo’s President Joseph Kabila
Democratic Republic of Congo’s President Joseph Kabila

Planning for sustainable growth
Kabila has vowed to continue guiding the Democratic Republic of Congo into the next phase of development by enforcing good governance and seeking to create a better environment, both for the Congolese people and foreign investors.

Seeing the need to make quick and long-reaching reforms to unite and inspire the country following national tragedy and civil strife, Kabila and his trusted advisors began to rebuild the fabric of the nation by creating a framework to help facilitate economic growth, improved welfare for the Congolese and a national identity that would help drive these changes forward.

The efforts to provide quality healthcare, education, electricity and infrastructure to meet the everyday needs of the people serve as the greatest task for Kabila and his team of leaders.

Under this framework, entitled Les Cinq Chantiers de la RDC (The Five Pillars of Congo), Kabila developed a long-term plan to improve domestic welfare through modernisation efforts, improve the country’s trade policy with foreign governments and boost domestic investments and capital flow to his country.

Improving infrastructure, education, electricity, higher employment and housing are the key components of the nation’s modernisation and long-term growth strategy.

Under the Les Cinq Chantiers framework, Kabila also vowed to improve the infrastructure of the nation. In perhaps one of the most prolific changes to turn around the failing commercial aviation industry, he encouraged the creation of new airlines to fill the quickly growing demand for cost-effective, yet safe aviation options.

From this idea, and the vision of businessman George Forrest, came Korongo Airlines. In a partnership with Brussels Airlines and its parent company, Lufthansa, this airline will help fill a gap in the Central African aviation industry and help overhaul the nation’s growing industry. Following the creation of this airline, Kabila’s work resulted in discussions with Air France to partner with local airlines to create a pan-African network based in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Acknowledging the nation’s commitment to aviation, Ethiopian Airlines, the second-largest air carrier in Africa, opened a hub in the country’s main airport, N’Djili Airport.

“The Congo is a large country and a large market. While peace has been a problem, there seems to be a better situation developing”, said Ethiopian Airline CEO Tewolde Gebremariam. “We think it’s going to attract a lot of foreign direct investment, and it’s right in the middle of Central Africa.”

According to the IMF, in recognition of the need for better governance, many resource-rich countries in Sub-Saharan Africa such as the Democratic Republic of Congo have made a great deal of progress in the quality of their institutions over the past years. In fact, over half of the natural resource providers have improved their World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicator ratings on rule of law and corruption, and about 40 percent of these countries have improved their ratings on government effectiveness.

Perhaps one of Kabila’s greatest achievements, however, was choosing a tremendously capable prime minister in Matata Ponyo Mapon. Formerly the nation’s minister of finance, Ponyo has become a popular figure, garnering tremendous praise both within his country and the international community. As a technocrat with the ability and passion to bring change to the nation, Ponyo, a firm believer in stability and the private sector as the key to growth nations, has worked to encourage free enterprise throughout the Democratic Republic of Congo.

During his tenure within the ministry, Ponyo helped change the investment climate of the nation and began enacting newer measures to protect shareholders and boost capital flow to the country.

Aware of the magnitude of the task at hand, the government of the Democratic Republic of Congo is working on innovative mechanisms to address the challenges of development in order to propel the country towards accelerated growth. In collaboration with Harvard University, Ponyo gathered with thought leaders from around the world, ranging from professors to government leaders, to help shape policy and debate ideas for sustainable growth.

The Congolese government and private sector have worked together to launch the Kinshasa International Economic Forum, an annual event created to discuss lessons learned from successful experiences of other counties on governance and economic growth. In early January of this year, the nation hosted a team of economists and professors from the US and Europe to discuss inclusive growth needed to drive the nation forward.

Democratic Republic of Congo

Long-term vision
The prime minister understands that future of the Democratic Republic of Congo rests not only on the government, but on a public-private mandate to create opportunities and growth, which can only occur when the rule of law and governance allow for the rights of investors and citizens to be protected.

Within his first term as prime minister, Ponyo focused his attention on key initiatives that would help the nation prosper. From bolstering the legal system by implementing investor-friendly regulations, to lowering corporate taxes and decreasing the amount of bureaucracy for starting and running enterprises. The prime minister followed through on his goals to show the world the potential of the Democratic Republic of Congo under proper governance.

Taking advantage of this improved business environment, OM Group (OMG), an American cobalt refiner, became the first western investor to work within the Democratic Republic of Congo after the nation’s civil war. In addition to more than $300m in cash flow provided to the nation in taxes, raw materials and electricity, the joint venture between OMG and Gecamines, the state-owned mining enterprise, has created over 400 jobs for the local Congolese miners. The company’s executives praise Congo’s leadership as forward thinking, and advantageous to business and foreign investments.

“The business climate in the DRC has improved significantly over the past 10 years since Kabila came to office. He has done a good job, but there is still much to do”, said Steve Dunmead, Vice President and General Manager of OMG.

As the Democratic Republic of Congo continues to develop and create a wealth of opportunity for both international investors and its citizens, the development of business-friendly environments is vital in developing the country into the continent’s future superpower.

Fostering partnerships, a key aspect of the country’s growth, will be at the top of his list as he continues to work with international partners and development organisations to bring prosperity to the nation.

Through improvement of the business climate and development of the nation’s social sectors, the leadership of the Democratic Republic of Congo has proven its uncanny ability to accomplish goals necessary to bring progress.

By creating opportunities for the Congolese people and developing an environment to help businesses thrive, Ponyo is fulfilling his pledge to bring a new level of prosperity to the Democratic Republic of Congo. From subtle changes – such as decreasing the size of government – to the implementation of long-term energy frameworks, Kabila and Ponyo are leading the charge to show Africa and the world the true potential of the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Coltan from the rich deposits of Masisia territory in North Kivu, DRC
Coltan from the rich deposits of Masisia territory in North Kivu, DRC

ECB should extend QE, IMF report advises

The IMF has released its annual report on the eurozone. The 45-page document praises the performance of the ECB’s QE programme so far, but warns it may have to be extended due to uncertainties stemming from Greece.

QE, so far, is said to have “boosted confidence, improved financial conditions, and contributed to a reduction in financial fragmentation.” However, it is also noted that volatility from Greece may require further action. The report notes that the situation in Greece is fluid and potentially subject to further negative developments, meaning that policymakers should be prepared to implement policies to “manage contagion risks.”

The external position of the eurozone is said to
have strengthened

“[P]olicy-makers should stand ready to deploy, and if necessary adapt, the full arsenal of available instruments,” according to the report. “[T]he ECB in particular should ensure that banks continue to have access to ample liquidity and maintain orderly conditions in sovereign debt markets. If financial conditions tighten significantly, the ECB should consider further loosening monetary policy through an expansion of its asset purchase program.”

The report notes that growth in the eurozone has picked up since mid 2014 and continued in 2015, pointing out that “private consumption remained robust, reflecting rising employment and real wages, while fixed investment has expanded,” with growth in Germany at 1.5 percent, while Spain, Italy and France have also seen activity pick up. Very low inflation is also expected to have bottomed out, hovering just above zero this year before rising to 1.1 percent in 2016. Early 2015 saw consumer and business spending pick up, stemming from the trough in oil prices.

The external position of the eurozone is said to have strengthened, with the current account having posted a surplus. The weakening of the euro in 2015 “has been beneficial given the economic cycle,” the IMF says. However, “the currency is now moderately weaker than the level consistent with medium-term fundamentals.” This can be remedied by “a broader reform agenda that strengthens growth and inflation would contribute to a gradual strengthening of the real exchange rate over the medium term,” along with appropriate monetary policy.

It is also pointed out that external imbalances within the eurozone remain, noting that although the current account positions of debtor nations has improved, owing to a lower exchange rate and labour unit costs, “rebalancing has failed to take place among creditor countries with the large current surpluses of Germany and the Netherlands continuing to grow and moving farther away from levels implied by medium-term fundamentals.” Rebalancing will require “addressing excess saving and weak investment in creditor countries, while improving further the competitiveness of debtor countries.”

US companies commit $140bn to climate change

A group of 13 major US companies have signed up to the government’s climate change pledge as part of the American Business Act on Climate Change, and in doing so stepped up the nation’s leadership in the lead-up to the UN’s Paris Summit this December. Supporters include Apple, Berkshire Hathaway, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America, and these names, together with nine others, have agreed to sink $140bn into low carbon investments and make efficiency gains where possible.

“We recognise that delaying action on climate change will be costly in economic and human terms, while accelerating the transition to a low-carbon economy will produce multiple benefits with regard to sustainable economic growth, public health, resilience to natural disasters, and the health of the global environment,” according to a White House statement. The statement notes also that “hundreds of private companies, local governments, and foundations have stepped up to increase energy efficiency, boost low-carbon investing, and make solar energy more accessible to low-income Americans.”

The country has committed to an emissions reduction of 26 to 28 percent before 2025, going by 2005 levels – that’s according to the country’s national climate action plan and emissions pledge, submitted to the UN earlier this year. The latest announcement underlines the private sector’s commitment to this same end and raises hopes that others might follow suit, with many more expected to join the so-called American Business Act on Climate Change this fall.

Alongside the $140bn in new low-carbon investments, the companies have agreed to install 1,600MW of additional capacity, whilst also cutting emissions as much as 50 percent, water intensity as much as 15 percent and committing to zero net deforestation in their supply chains.

Highlights:

Bank of America

  • Expand environmental business initiative from $50bn to $125bn by 2025
  • Attract a wider array of capital to clean energy investments

Berkshire Hathaway Energy

  • Build on more than $15bn investment in renewable energy generation through 2014 by investing another $15bn
  • Retire over 75 percent of coal-fuelled generating capacity in Nevada by 2019

Goldman Sachs

  • Achieve goal of $40bn investment in clean energy globally within the next year and establish a larger target for 2025
  • Aim to use 100 percent renewable power to meet global electricity needs by 2020

Google

  • Commitment to powering operations with 100 percent renewable energy and triple purchases of renewable energy by 2025
  • Targeting a 30 percent reduction in potable water use by Bay Area headquarters in 2015

Apple

  • Bring an estimated 280MW of clean power generation online by the end of 2016
  • Already succeeded in running all of its US operations on renewable energy

Sura on capturing Mexico’s equity market

Finding the right stocks that offer the best return opportunities in the market is a challenging task. We believe that attractive valuations, improving profitability and balance sheet strength are clear signals of stocks with great return potential. However, achieving high information ratios for our clients’ portfolios requires not only the selection of great opportunities, but also the efficient management of risk.

Managing tracking errors and active weight is a key part of the process. At Sura Investment Management Mexico, value investing has a long-term approach that also requires the understanding of industry dynamics and an in-depth discussion of business prospects, with the help of company management to incorporate conservative and reliable assumptions in our models.

Our philosophy is focused on generating consistent superior risk adjusted performance, both against the market and our peers in medium to long-term horizons. We believe that active management generates attractive results, and in particular, in less efficient markets such as the Mexican equity market. To be able to extract consistent alphas, we have a dedicated team of portfolio managers, analysts and traders that focus on the local market, constantly in contact with companies and approaching valuations from a fundamental view.

Stock price allocation
There are plenty of opportunities in the local market, but there are also a lot of different risks. Capturing alpha requires a deep knowledge of both the companies and the market itself. Macroeconomic trends as well as individual microeconomic forces, changing regulations along with significant inflows and outflows all play their part in the setting of stock prices. Our aim is to provide our investors with the best vehicles for obtaining exposure to the Mexican markets, and our track record is a clear example of our focus.

Exchange rate behaviour is an important variable affecting business performance

Mexico has a market capitalisation of about $500bn, and remains a highly concentrated market – the 10 biggest firms represent more than 50 percent of the total market.

Our approach has been to marginally increase our performance based on valuation scrutiny and discipline, as well as to include some mid and small cap firms which offer more opportunities in mispricing as liquidity and efficiency are lower in those segments. In the last two years we have seen that the mid and small-caps index outperformed the main index. We believe this is due to the fact that the earnings growth in large caps has been low compared to the rest of the market.

In the last couple of years economic growth has gradually decreased as a consequence of lower disposable income that was affected by the fiscal reform, low productivity growth and the fact that fluctuating oil prices have also decreased the attractiveness of investments in the country (see Fig. 1). Of course, mid and small cap stocks also exposes the investor to wider risks, which is why being selective and limiting exposures is a key ingredient for being successful.

The Mexican market is quite expensive, and the IPC Index is trading at 20 times ahead of the P/E multiple based on consensus figures; which we believe have the relatively high weight of staples in the index at approximately 30 percent, and is one of the reasons for this high valuation. The implied growth of the IPC multiple based on the Gordon Growth Model stands around 8.1 percent – which is fair given that sales estimates are projected to grow at about 10 percent CAGR for the next five years.

In the last couple of years we have seen earnings revised down and the index multiple trading at the same level, the main reason bring that the performance of the IPC has been marginal. Going forward the multiple expansion seems challenging, and earnings per share (EPS) growth has not performed as expected. However, we have seen small and mid-cap companies that have over performed in the market because of multiple re-rating supported by continued fundamental improvement and better net results. Here is where the equities team at Sura strives to position its competitive advantage in the process of screening companies with high intrinsic value and sound fundamentals, always with a strong focus on risk management.

Investing in real estate
One sector that we have been looking closely at is real estate, as last year the FIBRAs (real estate investment trusts, known as REITs) index had an over performance of 16 percent against the IPC – where both local and international investors piled in this relatively new segment of the asset class and raised about $6.5bn in equity since the beginning of 2013. Currently there are nine FIBRAs in the market, and they are a growing asset class with still plenty of cash for deployment. We at Sura prefer holding FIBRAs that trade at levels near or below NAV in our estimates. Particularly, in FIBRAs we like the USD exposure given that some rents are USD denominated and the inflation protection we get as renters are mostly linked to increases in CPI. As a caution, FIBRAs have a high exposure to rising interest rates, as many investors see it as a substitute for bonds. This might become a vulnerable element for the segment going forward.

In general, our outlook for the Mexican equity market in 2015 is quite conservative, as we argue that EPS growth has been quite low in the last couple of years and although we expect a higher growth rate going forward – it will be at single-digit growth rate. Additionally, multiple re-rating seems difficult to assimilate, as no short-term catalysts are visible. In sectorial terms, we have higher conviction in firms with exposure to the US manufacturing industry (such as industrials), real estate and consumer discretionary that we expect will offer much better dynamics in EPS growth.

Weak economic growth in Mexico has also been due to lower public infrastructure spending as well as lower private construction activity, a remnant of the homebuilders collapse. Low construction activity has also impacted consumption and job loss, and despite better consumer data for food retailers with SSS increasing above inflation at the beginning of the year, we still believe valuations don’t reflect fundamentals and long- term EPS growth. So far the earnings momentum hasn’t crystallised, and the big question is how to be bullish in stocks with earnings growth at single digit rates trading above 25x forward P/Es. That’s the reason we prefer stocks with high cash generation and multiples adjusted for growth at relatively attractive levels.

Mexico's fluctuating oil prices

One relevant issue for the equity market is the magnitude of the impact from the energy reform in potential GDP. Certainly, expectations have decreased because of the oil price collapse, but we still believe productivity gains from lower energy prices such as natural gas, gasoline and electricity will contribute in the medium-term to the improvement of gross margins of many firms. There is a lot of uncertainty in the timing of significantly higher investments in the energy sector – economists are estimating three to five years to see higher investment figures – however, we prefer to manage the expectations in a relatively moderate way.

Moving on, there are expectations of new firms coming to the market this year, with Mexican Stock Exchange officials mentioning around 10 deals between IPOs and follow-ons. New deals have been a source of alpha for Sura clients as we have found attractive opportunities in new issuances in the past. The equity that has been raised since the beginning of 2013 has amounted to nearly $22bn, which represents a significant amount of new flows given the size of the local equity market.

Exchange rate behaviour is an important variable affecting business performance. In general, companies that have a top line income in USD and COGS in MXN are always a good hedge against any sudden depreciations in the peso. Industrials, real estate and financials are generally our preferred sectors when we believe the peso will depreciate in the future, such as the current environment. On the other hand, if the peso is expected to appreciate, discretionary, staples, telecoms and materials are our favourite sectors.

Interest rates and inflation expectations also impact strongly in our investment decision process. For 2015 the 10-year inflation break-evens are at 280bps and our view is that inflation will end slightly above BANXICO’s target of 300bps, heading to 350bps. The monetary policy in Mexico will aggressively follow that of the US as the fixed income holdings from foreigners are at historical highs. This means FIBRAs could underperform if the FED liftoff takes place during 2015, which is our base case.

Even if the market looks expensive as a whole, there are still very good opportunities for extracting value in Mexican equities. Careful risk management, discipline and medium term horizon is a must, now more than ever since volatility is returning to global markets, but a focused team with a solid investment philosophy and process will make a big difference. Sura also has a presence in several markets across Latin America, reinforcing our competitive advantage in the region since we have teams of professionals based in each country. Synergies across Sura investment teams means there is a regional view that is more definite than any top-down alternative.

The automotive industry goes through radical changes

Tighter regulations, rising costs, and as with most industries – technological innovation – are sending ripples throughout the global car industry. As a result of economic pressures, rising commodity prices and slowing growth in some areas, the markets themselves are shifting. Traditional players, such as Europe and Japan, are showing stagnation, while others, including Russia and Brazil, are bowing to macroeconomic constraints.

Elsewhere, China – now the largest market for automobiles – continues to grow, albeit not as fervently as in recent years, while the US is showing signs of stability and optimism for the coming year ahead. Yet all markets, despite their individual nuances and various stages of maturity, face the same overriding challenges to meet evolving regulatory and user demands.

Technological drive
Consumers have come to expect the latest technology features in all aspects of life, putting electronic content and connectivity with personal devices at the forefront of current demands within the industry. This creates a huge challenge for manufacturers as production lead times can range between three to five years, whereas rapidly changing technology can become out-dated in a matter of months. “The intersection of what is really a digital world – a semi-conductor, micro-electronics world – which moves along at Moore’s Law, is very antithetical to the automobile world”, says Evan Hirsh, Vice President at Strategy& and specialist in the automotive sector.

China's GDP

This contrast between the two industries has led to something of a convergence, with more tech companies venturing into the field, most notably Google with its self-driving car, and far more vehicle manufacturers seeking partnerships in order to stay ahead of the game. “For the last 100 years, most automotive solutions have been developed by automotive companies – what we’re seeing increasingly over the last two to three years, is that suddenly, a lot of the solutions have become technology solutions”, says Phil Harrold, automotive expert for PwC.

This technological drive and transformation in consumer expectations does not only involve the experience within a vehicle, but extends prior to the purchase as well. As such, the assimilation of information and culture of online shopping has also infiltrated the automotive industry. Although customers still consider the test drive a deciding factor, increasingly more aspects of the purchasing process are carried out online.

Despite this change in consumer behaviour, the industry has been relatively slow to keep up in this regard, “you wouldn’t say that the automobile dealers are a leading edge in terms of retailing”, Hirsh comments. Yet, fully embracing this culture of digital interaction could also offset another road humps facing the industry – a decline in brand loyalty.

At present, consumers have become more concerned with cost savings rather than maintaining a life-long allegiance to one brand, as was the case some years ago. In order to rebuild these long-lasting relationships, manufacturers must offer more in terms of services throughout the vehicle ownership, beginning with internet platforms that can permit greater engagement.

The safety belt
Increasing austerity in terms of environmental and fuel efficiency standards, as well as safety requirements, is another growing burden for manufacturers. “These are very complex products – huge amounts of investment go into making them, so in terms of what you can and can’t do, these constraints get tighter all the time”, Hirsh explains to World Finance. Consequently, meeting European and US standards has become an onerous and costly process, which shows no signs of abating, resulting in substantial consequences to the sector and slimmer profit margins for producers.

At this juncture within the industry, there is a need for constant modernisation; by investing in R&D, firms can meet these continually changing requirements, while also taming mounting expenses: “The challenge is about innovating, keeping the product relevant [and] keeping costs down”, Harrold comments.

More rigorous competition has led firmly established brands to reassess their business models in order to stay ahead of rivals and keep up with global demand, in spite of growing overheads. Firms are unveiling more products, yet with fewer differences between them, as using the same platforms and vehicle architecture enables producers to reduce costs and share common components across different models. In addition to benefiting from economies of scale, platform modularisation also offers a wider portfolio for customers, which is vital in an increasingly competitive market.

Due to a point that is close to saturation in mature markets, such as the US and Europe, (or some would argue, one that has already been reached), growth has stagnated to around one and two percent. Although positive signs are being seen in the US and while the industry is “part of the American psyche”, as Harrold puts it, there is a limitation to the rate of growth that can be achieved in the foreseeable future. “The market has come back almost to its peak from the pre-recession levels; all of that pent-up demand has finally been satiated”, says Tim Healey, Automotive Analyst at Mintel. “It’s probably going to plateau and peter out a little bit, and that’s going to be a challenge for automakers going forward to try to maintain that momentum.”

To counter balance this slowing trend in advanced markets, Western manufacturers are entering new areas where they can experience much faster growth. “China has definitely been a boom to certain brands”, says Healey. Jaguar Land Rover, Audi and Rolls Royce recently have had huge success there for example. “That’s the luxury end of the market, so it’s typically business people and government officials”, Harrold explains. Moreover, this is just one of two prongs behind climbing sales, the other stemming from the indigenous market, with demand for smaller and more basic vehicles being met by Chinese own-brands, such as Chery and Geely.

Slow and steady growth
Despite its rapid growth, numerous challenges also exist in China, such as the sizeable import duties that foreign exporters have to contend with – leading some big players, including Audi and Jaguar Land Rover, to set up production there. As Harrold explains, “one of the peculiarities is that to enter into China, you really have to get into a joint venture agreement with local manufacturers, and so again the Western OEMs have to change their business model.” Alongside such complex market conditions, sales are also decelerating in China amid the country’s slowing GDP and an anti-corruption drive (see side bar). That being said, with a growth rate of seven percent it is still significantly higher than anywhere else in the world.

Even with new markets to revel in, the underdeveloped infrastructure of emerging economies such as India, presents a big obstacle. Furthermore, despite an expanding middle class and growing prosperity in these territories, there is a limit to a continuous upswing in demand. “I think then the big question is, what is the realistic level of market penetration or vehicles per household in many of these economies? Which don’t have the infrastructure that we have, [nor] the space that many of the early motorising countries have, and which frankly, would struggle to reach our levels of ownership”, says Peter Wells, Professor of Business and Sustainability at Cardiff University.

Even in the event of an enduring upward trend, there exist restrictions in the ability for manufacturers to keep up. Essentially, this is because rising commodity prices are a mounting burden to export-driven economies; “meaning that revenue expectations and balance of trade expectations are considerably reduced”, Wells tells World Finance. The car industry is notoriously resource heavy, requiring a huge level of investment and ongoing financing in order to keep moving. As it is seen as a key market in many economies, governments have a tendency in times of extreme pressure to prop up their respective automotive markets. “Governments have been quite sedulous in trying to support and generally encourage the industry, in terms of offering subsidies for electric vehicles, offering scrappage incentives, adjusting tax rates and so on”, Wells explains.

Such involved state support, despite growing production costs and arguably an unsustainable model, infers that maintaining this modus operandi cannot last forever – even in the most developed economies. Some experts believe that this is not the case and that such governmental policies will not continue into the future, given what technology can do for the industry. Yet, it is difficult to deny the possibility of reverberating market pressures and future recessions, as these macroeconomic phenomena are seldom unique.

The automotive industry has reached a point wherein safety and the environment have become pivotal aspects of the business that are demanded by the authorities, as well as the people – this is not a bad stage in societal development of course, but it does necessitate a re-haul in how cars are made and function. Governments still have a significant role to play in encouraging consumer acceptance of new technologies, such as electric and hydrogen fuel cell-powered vehicles, through the creation of complementary infrastructure and financial incentives. While some argue that self-driving cars can raise the bar in terms of safety and efficiency, in ways that man cannot.

Consequently, manufacturers must continue to develop safer vehicles with futuristic features that are less harmful to the environment. Meanwhile measures are also required to improve the production process, making it more cost-effective and far less resource heavy. This is particularly important for the growth models of emerging economies, which require a long-term vision with a greater internal focus that leans away from a commodity-led export market.

Only by transforming the automobile into something that meets these evolving expectations can the industry thrive. That being said, the size of each market remains finite, limited by population and wealth, and so only those players willing to adapt, evolve and perhaps even shrink, can journey through to the next exciting era of automotive history.

China has “no safe places to invest”, says Bridgewater

The “world’s largest macro hedge fund” Bridgewater Associates has expressed scepticism about the future of the Chinese economy. Talking to clients, the hedge fund’s founder Raymond Dalio said, “our views about China have changed”, reports the Wall Street Journal. “There are now no safe places to invest.”

Since June 2015, the Chinese stock market has tumbled

Dalio says that the recent stock market meltdown in China will negatively affect the country’s economic growth. Since June 2015, the Chinese stock market has tumbled. After reaching a high point in June, prices dropped off by almost a third, resulting in $3trn being wiped from the market.

The impact of this will be long lasting and widespread, says Dalio: “Even those who haven’t lost money in stocks will be affected psychologically by events, and those effects will have a depressive effect on economic activity.”

Despite the authorities stepping in and the worst of crash having passed, many foreign investors are choosing to pull out of China, as shown by “the latest ANZ/EPRF flow of funds report…for the past week to July 22,” Business Insider reports.

Further bad news for the world’s second largest economy also comes from the Caixin Flash China General Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index. The index, an “indicator of manufacturing sector operating conditions in China,” showed that there was a larger contraction in China’s factory sector in July than there had been for the past 15 months due to a fall in orders and output. These figures cast doubt on official Chinese statistics, which put GDP growth at seven percent and have already been questioned for their accuracy.

VP Bank promotes Liechtenstein’s future as a finance hub

Against the backdrop of the financial crisis, which is still causing repercussions that are felt across Europe, Liechtenstein stands out as a rare beacon for investor confidence. High-performance banking, together with an AAA rating from S&P and the absence of government debt, make the country an ideal destination for financial services.

In Liechtenstein, comprehensive fiscal support and a wide spectrum of products are on offer in a setting of assurance and protection that is unmatched in the region. World Finance had the opportunity to speak with Alex Boss, Chairman of IFOS Executive Management since 2007, a wholly owned subsidiary of VP Bank, about what makes Liechtenstein so unique as a financial centre.

What, in your view, are Liechtenstein’s advantages as a financial centre?
Liechtenstein is characterised by high-quality products and services, coupled with state-of-the-art infrastructure. The low level of red tape makes it possible to set up companies and implement products quickly, while the stable Swiss franc, free market economic policies and consolidated privacy protection, are extremely advantageous.

Moreover, the country’s track record of political continuity and social stability, combined with high creditworthiness, add to the prosperity of the financial centre.

Liechtenstein is characterised by high-quality products and services, coupled with state-of-the-art infrastructure

What characterises Liechtenstein as an investment fund centre?
The Liechtenstein investment fund centre benefits from a stable high-performance banking system and moderate taxation. The state’s investment fund laws place particular importance upon investor protection, while state supervisory authorities and audit companies are in place to monitor compliance. Then there is Liechtenstein’s EEA membership and its implementation of EU investment fund directives, such as the undertakings for collective investment in transferable securities directive (UCITSD) and alternative investment fund managers directive (AIFMD), which enable simple and discrimination-free access to the European market. Furthermore, thanks to effective cooperation between public authorities and financial institutions, internationally compliant investment structures can be launched quickly and efficiently.

How does the VP Bank Group position itself in the Liechtenstein financial centre?
The VP Bank Group is an international bank that focuses on asset management for private individuals and intermediaries. It is one of the largest banks in Liechtenstein, with client assets that totalled CHF38.6bn ($42.4bn) at the end of 2014.

The VP Bank Group, which is listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange, also has representative offices in six countries around the world: Switzerland, Luxembourg, British Virgin Islands, Singapore, Hong Kong and Russia.

What is the position of Internationale Fonds Service (IFOS) within VP Fund Solutions and what services does it offer?
The VP Bank Group offers its range of investment fund services under the VP Fund Solutions label both in Liechtenstein and Luxembourg. Clients benefit from having a central interlocutor that can draw upon the services of experienced, multilingual specialists in order to objectively assess an investment fund project. IFOS is the investment fund competence centre within VP Fund Solutions that offers comprehensive support for establishing investment funds, which includes advice during concept development, drawing up legal documents and communicating with public authorities.

IFOS offers investment fund administration and management services, including licensing for public sales abroad, realising tax transparency and publicising investment fund prices. It also collects data, which it manages along with client websites, as well as providing accountancy services.

Additionally, IFOS is responsible for handling VP Bank’s range of investment funds and the selection of third-party funds for asset management purposes of the bank and its private clients. This means that we have a team of investment professionals at our disposal that truly understand client needs and can offer unique solutions. Finally, IFOS offers risk management for UCITS and AIF investment funds through an investment committee of experts.

There is also the Pricing Committee, which assesses private equity valuations and due diligence obligations in conjunction with illiquid assets – compliance and risk reports on each net asset value round off the range of services we offer.

What are the grounds for launching a private label investment fund?
The private label fund can be individually structured and licensed to include investment policy, asset management, fee structure, marketing, sales and labelling – all in accordance with statutory provisions. The product is transparent and supervised and can be licensed for sale within the EEA and Switzerland.

How will IFOS be positioned within the private label investment fund unit in future?
IFOS currently has approximately CHF3bn ($3.3bn) assets under management in around 90 sub-funds under Liechtenstein jurisdiction; we continue to view both professionally established and managed investment funds as markets for growth. As an expert partner, IFOS serves asset managers and companies in particular who wish to realise infrastructure and real estate projects in the form of investment fund solutions.

What is your view of current regulatory developments within the context of European financial and economic policy?
The repercussions of the financial and economic crisis continue to be felt deeply in the real European economy to this day. When it broke out, the EU identified inconsistent rules, regulatory loopholes and unregulated markets as the core problem facing financial market policy. As a consequence, the EU reinforced its efforts to standardise the conditions for financial and capital markets, while at the same time created more coherent regulatory criteria for member states.

One of the first far-reaching EU measures created was the AIFMD, which was new in that it aimed to regulate the managers of alternative investments – their managed products are only regulated indirectly. This directive represented the start of further regulatory measures aimed at strengthening the single European capital market. Within the Common Monetary Union, this also saw the creation of more coherent standards, such as European venture capital funds and European social entrepreneurship funds.

What impact are these regulatory developments having on your current and future field of business?
Through ManCo, we were one of the first management companies in Liechtenstein to acquire the AIFM licence in 2013. Our aim is to extend our relevant business fields, boost professionalism and widen the spectrum of services for current and future clients.

Following implementation of the EU passport in Liechtenstein, which we are expecting this year, it is essentially the case that all directives relevant for the EEA will need to be implemented in Liechtenstein also. One of the major benefits for us is that investment funds domiciled in Liechtenstein will become market-compliant for the entire EEA.

What is your view of the current market environment for investors?
In historic terms, stock market valuations are high – at the same time, commodities and interest rates are low. Due to pricey bonds and low to negative interest rates, investors cannot expect them to be risk-free; instead, they can only expect interest-free risks. In this environment, private investors are finding it difficult to judge markets correctly and consequently, they are hesitant about making new investments. Institutional and professional investors face the problem of having to generate risk-adjusted returns because they are no longer receiving the necessary yields on bond markets, while the allocation ratios of their portfolios are already saturated with traditional investment instruments. As pension funds and insurers need to generate long-term returns, currently, traditional investment forms are relatively unsuitable. There are some movements towards short-term investments, which can be difficult to square with the ultimate purpose of capital markets: financing growth in the real economy.

What is the situation in Europe, and how is the EU responding?
The economic and financial crisis affected the ability of the financial sector to direct resources to the real economy, especially in long-term investments. A heavy dependency on intermediation among banks, in conjunction with deleveraging and lower investor confidence, led to a decline in funding for all economic sectors. Within this environment the European Commission announced that job creation and boosting competitiveness were among its main priorities, resulting in a series of initiatives, such as Europe 2020, Connecting Europe, Innovation Union and 2030 Climate and Energy Package. Other programmes launched aim at promoting R&D, SMEs, a low-carbon economy and infrastructure development.

These programmes identify the investment measures required to restore growth and competitiveness and also highlight alternative channels of finance. However, investors with a longer-term horizon, for example pension funds and insurers, did not necessarily have access to coherent pooling mechanisms within EU member states at the time. In response to this, a uniform cross-border product framework was created, called European Long Term Investment Funds, which is designed to encourage demand from both institutional and small investors.

How are you preparing for these trends?
In our view, not least on account of the pronounced political determination of the EU, there is likely to be a greater trend towards long-term investments, in particular in infrastructure, private equity and real estate. To prepare, in addition to our services in the UCITS segment, we are expanding IT systems, resources and capacities in these fields.

We are also enhancing the professionalism of our services in the fields of risk management, investment management, taxes and administration. In this conjunction, we are focusing on the client segments of initiators and investment managers, as well as family offices, portfolio managers and ultra-high-net-worth individuals (UHNWIs). In the case of UHNWIs, we are developing innovative investment funds and configurations based upon the new regulatory framework.

Peru becomes consistent engine for growth

Peru might be a fraction of the size of Brazil, but that has not stopped this resource-rich country becoming one of South America’s most consistent engines for growth. According to data from the World Bank, Peru’s economy is set to grow by 2.9 percent this year, which compared to the 1.7 percent forecast for the Latin American region as a whole, stands as testament to the impressive strides the country has taken.

Its strong performance over the last decade has led to Lima being chosen to host the upcoming annual meetings of the boards of governors of the World Bank Group (WBG) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in October this year.

The 2015 WBG/IMF annual meetings will give the country the chance to showcase its economic achievements and strengthen its increasingly relevant position on the global stage. Peru’s President of the Council of Ministers, Pedro Cateriano Bellido expressed his appreciation to the WBG/IMF for recognising the country’s economic performance by bringing the event to Lima this year. “Today Peru is acknowledged worldwide as an important emerging economy, capable of hosting an event of the magnitude of the annual meetings, which will take place in Latin America after 48 years”, he said in a statement.

He went on to add that Lima is preparing itself to receive over 12,000 participants during the 2015 annual meetings and that the country is in the process of developing infrastructure that will allow the capital to become a preferred destination for other international events. “The 2015 WBG/IMF meetings in Lima will be the largest event ever to take place in the country”, said Cateriano. “It will provide local business leaders, investors, the academic community, and local social organisations with the chance to establish links with world global business and financial leaders and with civil society representatives.”

Today Peru is acknowledged worldwide
as an important
emerging economy

WBG Secretary Mohieldin has said that Peru was selected for the growing international prestige the country has won over the last two decades , due to its economic and social performance. “This designation is a clear reflection of Peru’s achievements in recent years in terms of political and institutional stability, economic soundness, investor confidence, and integration with the world economy”, he said.

Peruvian equities
One sector that has helped Peru garner the respect of the international community is its dynamic and ever-evolving financial sector. The Peruvian equities market for example, although only a small, shallow market shows great potential in supporting the country’s long-term growth aspirations.

“However, it is significantly influenced by the perception that the national economy is highly dependent on mining”, says Rafael Buckley, CEO of SURA Mutual Fund. “As a result, this market has the habit of turning volatile, along with a propensity to vagaries of the global economy, and particularly dependent on the demand for minerals.

“Given the global market situation, the Peruvian stock market is slack due to the low global growth prospects for this year and to the fact that it is a pre-election year for Peru, which could generate political unrest affecting the preferences for our stock market.”

In the last five years, there has been a significant improvement in the stock market general regulations, as well as in the Mutual Funds (SMV) specific regulations and tax system. This has resulted in a more transparent and professional market, but it has mainly promoted the creation of new funds based on new types such as international, structured, secured, flexible funds, and funds of funds.

During the first years after 2008, fund management companies focused on completing the value proposition mainly by creating defensive funds, given the risk aversion following the 2008 and 2011 crises. Then the creation of new funds increased significantly – just in the last 12 months, 21 new funds (+26 percent) have appeared – taking into account more creative initiatives involving diversification and low correlation with the local market. “Without any doubt, the government and the private sector have promoted major advances, but there is still a long way to go”, says Buckley.

“The main challenge now consists in making the funds offer available to more people by using new distribution channels and promoting long-term investment benefits.”

According to a report by BNAmericas, the investment portfolio of Peru’s mutual funds grew 13.4 percent in 2014. One reason behind the growth of mutual funds is the decreasing trend in interest rates recorded since 2008, resulting in the search for more profitable alternatives by the investors. Meanwhile the fund management companies reported consistent returns, especially in very short- and short-term funds. This is why 71 percent of all the assets under management (AUM), approximately $6.1bn, is invested in these categories.

The average Peruvian investors are generally conservative and have a poor long-term savings culture; therefore, a big percentage of their savings is earmarked for short-term deposits. Another important reason behind the increase of AUM is the significant expansion of the product range, the structured and international funds being the most popular products among investors so far this year.

“Our main objective is to generate risk-adjusted returns above the reference indexes of our funds and to make higher returns compared to the average return of our competitors’ funds”, says Buckley.

“All of this lineout with solid policies and investment and risk practices that ensure the sustainability of our business over time. Another important topic is to continue fostering in our industry the application of good social responsibility and environmental practices when evaluating investments. We do not aim to be the most profitable company every year, but we do want to consistently generate value above the funds average.”

Diverse funds
In relation to the debt market, SURA Mutual Fund manages two money market funds, two short-term debt funds, and two fixed income funds. All of these funds make investments throughout the curve of the Peruvian sovereign debt, as well as in corporate debts issued by Peruvian companies, and in short-term debt instruments (mainly in the financial sector).

It also manages one equity fund, which invests in Peruvian companies stocks, and has an investment approach focused in mining (in line with its reference index), and one equity fund which invests in companies that are part of the Pacific Alliance (Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru).

“Furthermore, we manage three international funds, enabling our customers to invest in North American, European and emerging markets stocks and to expose them to these markets with a tax efficient and passive management”, says Buckley. “Finally, we also manage three balanced funds that incorporate our [tactical] views.”

Investor relations
In today’s hyper-connected world there is a demand for financial organisations to take strides to improve communication with their investors. SURA aims to create spaces where it can interact with investors through Q&A sessions in different social networks, along with bi-monthly videos that allow fund managers to share information about any changes in the market and strategies used to manage their funds.

In addition, there are quarterly meetings with the media, where the company attempts to clear up any doubt about the industry in general terms (pension fund administrators – AFP, mutual funds and insurance).

“For our internal operations, we carry out programmes to bring the customers closer to our administrative staff, which raise awareness about the sales process and help them identify how to improve the service”, says Buckley. “Aside from these activities, I think the best way to keep our customers close is to advise them objectively and manage their expectations, so they can achieve their goals.

“Instead of focusing our attention into selling old returns, we are interested in dedicating a large part of the process to explain the associated risks.”

Unlike its competitors, SURA’s products can be distributed in several banks, brokerage firms, securities intermediaries, and soon in other financial institutions. Additionally, for its distribution channel it has developed unique advising processes, which are based more on managing customers’ expectations than on selling specific products.

“Without doubt, we are an innovative fund management company. The fact that we are the only big fund management company not linked to a bank makes us different. We are more focused on providing excellent results for our investors and we are creative in the design and distribution of ours products”, says Buckley.

“It is worth mentioning that for the last years we have been a benchmark for creating new products. Indeed, we have created the first funds of funds with different share packages to make the offer available to more people, as well as the first flexible funds, regional international funds, and integrated market funds.”

Overall, the Peruvian market shows great growth potential, with investors now more experienced and asking for more sophisticated products. Not only that, but the penetration of mutual funds in the market is still relatively low compared to other countries in the region regarding term deposit volume or GDP percentage. Combine this with the fact that the country as a whole is attracting increased international attention and it is likely that we will see more capital finding its way to Peruvian markets in the coming years.

Citibank fined $700m for “unfair and deceptive” practices

The Consumer and Financial Protection Bureau is forcing Citibank North America, as well as its subsidiaries, Department Stores National Bank, and Citicorp Credit Services, to repay $700m to customers for what the US regulator describes as “unfair and deceptive practices.” According to a statement posted on the CFPB website, these practices “include unfairly billing consumers for credit card add-on products, deceptively marketing those products, and deceptive collection practices. Citibank has agreed to pay about $700m in refunds on about 8.8 million accounts.”

“Citibank has agreed to pay about $700m in refunds on about 8.8 million accounts”

Regulators found that the bank offered customers a number of debt protection add-on products that pledged to write off, balance or defer the due date of payments for customers in instances of unforeseen hardships, such as job loss, disability, hospitalisation or divorce, as well as anti-fraud card monitoring services. These products were found to be sold deceptively at the point of sale, with customers not informed of their additional costs or misled concerning a supposedly “free” 30 day trial.

The benefits of the anti-fraud monitoring services were also misrepresented. As the CFPB notes in a press release, “Citibank claimed the fraud alert service on credit card accounts would alert them of fraudulent purchases. In fact, the credit-monitoring product only provided alerts to changes in a consumer’s credit file maintained by major reporting companies, not at the transaction level.”

Further, the bank was accused of using misleading questions to obtain billing authorisations from customers to purchase add-ons, as well as using deceptive practices when collecting payment on delinquent credit card accounts, leading customers unnecessarily to pay a $14.95 fee.

Citibank must pay $479m in consumer relief to the 4.8 million customers deemed to have been affected by deceptive marketing or retention practices and $196m to roughly 2.2 million customers who enrolled in the card monitoring service, while Department Stores National Bank must provide $23.8m to the 1.8 million customers that were charged expedited payment fees on delinquent accounts. Finally, the bank must also pay a $35m fine to the CFPB’s Civil Penalty Fund.