Banks take inspiration from retailers to attract consumers

Traditional retailers are the envy of retail banks. Here is a sector adored by the consumer, whose weekends are happily spent wandering the aisles of Wal-Mart, perusing the store shelves of Apple, or seeking a bargain at Target. Contrast this with the way in which consumers see banking, and it’s clear why those in the industry are under threat, as they take pains to absorb some of the retail sector’s more desirable qualities.

Not unlike banking, the emphasis for retailers today is on customer experience. See Apple or Tesla, for example, both of which have opted not for shop space chock full of products, but something closer to a showroom, in order that they may better convey their brand identity and commitment to customer centricity. The ultimate ambition for retailers today is to make each store a ‘destination’ – a far cry from the transaction centres of old, which were designed simply to maximise efficiency and productivity, often to the detriment of customer experience.

It is this so-called ‘destination shopping’ that has seen enterprising retailers turn what many consider a chore into an experience. The internet has destabilised the all-conquering force that bricks-and-mortar sales used to represent, and shifted the focus from customer convenience to experience. Ultimately, traditional retailers have found themselves forced to contend with all manner of alternatives, and in doing so have happened upon a new era for retail, as well as a host of new opportunities for financial services.

While the circumstances for retail at first glance seem disconnected from the issues facing retail banking, many financial institutions are now beginning to consult traditional retailers as part of the process of rethinking the world-weary foundations on which the sector is built. Retail banks, to all intents and purposes, are retailers, with the biggest difference between the two being a long history of unrealised potential and an often narrow-minded means of interfacing with customers.

[M]any financial institutions are now beginning to consult traditional retailers as part of the process of rethinking the world-weary foundations on which the sector is built

Remaining competitive
The introduction of non-traditional business models such as peer-to-peer lending and e-banking has spooked the industry, and ramped up the emphasis on technology and convenience in order to remain competitive. One often overlooked obstacle, however, is customer experience, and if retail banks are truly to emerge from the post-crisis world utterly transformed, they must first take heed of sectors outside financial services.

Although the ramifications of the financial crisis have been far-reaching for banking, it has allowed onlookers a rare glimpse into the innermost dealings of financial services, shining a light on the extent to which the industry has been allowed to act irrespective of changes in consumer attitudes. Long-held values have slipped, margins have narrowed and “incumbent banks have just been so awful at serving their customers,” says Tony Greenham, Head of Finance and Business at New Economics Foundation.

As such, banks are increasingly looking to their not-too-distant retail counterparts for an example in how best to adapt to ever changing consumer trends, and are in some instances going so far as to combine the two sectors as a means to that end. Granted, product innovation, good governance and greater quality of service are all crucial facets of the transformation, but some firms need to look outside the traditional banking space in order to streamline operations, cut costs, and improve their offerings.

“Digital innovation does not mean the end of branches (see Fig.1), but a different kind of branch network. Good local lending needs a local presence and face-to-face meeting,” says Greenham. “However, the current number of branches is uneconomic. Branch sharing is the answer.”

New banks on the block
One example of this method in practice is M&S Bank. British fashion and food retailer Marks & Spencer and London-based bank HSBC came together in mid-2012 and set out with an ambitious plan to open up 50 branches across the UK. The bank has joined the likes of Halifax, First Direct and Tesco Bank, who likewise hope to challenge the already established group of British high street banks. Almost two years on from its establishment, M&S Bank has launched a current account with no monthly fees, cheap overdrafts and small overseas charges – along with a complimentary £100 M&S gift card – in an effort to test the mettle of the high street’s existing players. Crucially, the alternative banking solution marks an attempt on the part of HSBC to utilise M&S’ branch infrastructure. Here lies a radically alternative method of not only cutting branch-associated costs, but emphasising customer centricity by aligning brand values with those of another firm whose primary focus is on matching the ever-changing demands of the consumer.

“M&S Bank brings the trusted M&S brand values to banking, delivering a new choice on the high street,” said an M&S Bank spokesperson. “We’re already seeing new entrants in the market, such as M&S Bank, and this is something we’ll continue to see. This is bringing more competition to the industry, and more choice can only be a good thing for the consumer.”

Another benefit of note is that, contrary to the traditional nine-to-five opening hours of most high street banks, retail hours are more flexible and guarantee a greater stream of potential customers. For every store is another bank branch that need not necessarily be kept open. And in a time where margins are tight and efficiency key, the option is seen as a significant opportunity for retail banks and retailers alike moving forwards.

US retailers have also launched new financial services opportunities for consumers who might be disillusioned with or else excluded from traditional banking channels. For example, American Express and Wal-Mar launched the Bluebird service in 2012 to target low-income customers who were unable to contend with the high fees associated with traditional retail banking.

“The financial services landscape is changing,” said Dan Schulman, Group President of Enterprise Growth at American Express, in a press statement. “In an era where it is increasingly ‘expensive to be poor’, we have worked with Wal-Mart to create a financial services product that rights many of the wrongs that plague the market today.”

banking-activities
Source: Deloitte Centre for Banking Solutions/ Harris Interactive Study

21st-century banking
These partnerships also bear a certain resemblance to correspondent banking, which has for some time now been employed by financial institutions, and more recently emerged as a vital component of retail banking in emerging markets. Whereas correspondent banking has historically been used as a means of conducting transactions abroad, the method is today being used to cut branch-related costs and reshape the retail banking environment.

Increasingly, regulated financial institutions are partnering with commercial entities to create an extensive and cost effective branch network, and in doing so they are able to access individuals they otherwise would not be able to with no added expenditure.

The changes in this space are again closely in keeping with a much wider shift in retail banking, as delivery channels quietly, though rapidly, expand far and above what they once were. ‘Customers are demanding seamless, multi-channel sales and service experiences and not consistently receiving them,’ reads a Deloitte report entitled Reinventing Retail Banking.

‘Simultaneously, other financial institutions and non-traditional players are looking for opportunities to invade this space or to redefine it through disruptive innovation. The result is forcing banks to examine a more balanced, integrated approach to the customer experience and growth.’

Most in the financial services industry have improved customer data, services and customisability. However, what the sector needs is not incremental improvement, but a wholesale shift in the way banking services are delivered to customers. In short, retail banks must cement partnerships with commercial entities and develop an entirely new set of tools, as well as dramatically rethinking the way in which they accomplish strategic goals.

Alternate distribution channels
Crucially, young, affluent consumers are coming to the counter with greater expectations than before, and expecting in-branch assistance to be personable and intelligent, given that the vast majority of simple tasks and transactions can just as easily be done online. The task for retail banking moving forwards is a complex one: it must at once simplify distribution and develop a more comprehensive branch network. In order for banks to come to terms with these new heights of expectation, they must surely look to entities whose primary business is not banking.

As a consequence, various industry experts predict that commercial entities, technology companies and traditional retailers in particular, could well prove crucial to the banking shake up moving forwards. And provided the rate of change – technological or otherwise – continues at the same pace it has been going in recent years, alternative retail distribution channels could come to constitute a large part of the industry and a saving grace for the profitability of retail banking moving forwards.

“Retailers have brand and distribution but have tended to rely on existing banks to operate their own retail banking operations. I guess they are not as important in changing the industry as the new disruptive business models from new entrants,” says Greenham. The solution does not lie solely with retailers, however; and in a more general sense banks must ensure they broaden delivery channels for customers if they are to remain competitive.

Therefore, retailers should be seen not as a fix-all solution, but as one part of a much larger solution for traditional banking moving forwards. As low-cost business models such as peer-to-peer lending and internet banking squeeze margins further still, existing players must take pains to ensure they’re engaging with customers in every way they can.

A new era of African banking

Guaranty Trust Bank (GTBank) has long established itself as a top-tier bank in its native Nigeria, having dominated the market through strong corporate banking. With a solid footing in West and East Africa already, the firm is keen to expand into countries with high growth potential, such as Angola and Mozambique.

Surprisingly, the bank is not pursuing equity-generating areas such as wealth management, which has been a popular choice for banks of late. Rather, GTBank is going all-in on retail, pursuing new customers across a plethora of alternative channels, as well as drawing in lucrative SMEs through a brand new platform. All of this could put the bank among the top three banks in Africa by 2016 based on profits, believes Managing Director and CEO Segun Agbaje.

“Right now we’re daring to dream,” Agbaje told World Finance in an exclusive interview. “In 2011, we were number 15 in Africa in terms of profit, today we’re number six, and our objective is to be number three… within the next two years. Once we’ve done that, it will give us some scale to develop across different economies, so we’ll be relevant in West Africa, East Africa and obviously be looking into Central Africa.”

Assets

54.5%

corporate

12%

retail

22.2%

commercial

3%

SME

8.4%

public sector

The firm currently has offices and subsidiaries in Nigeria, Ghana, Liberia, Gambia, Cote d’Ivoire, Sierra Leone, Rwanda, Kenya, Uganda and the UK. The Kenyan, Rwandan and Ugandan businesses – the firm’s East African subsidiaries – were all purchased when Guaranty Trust Bank took over Fina Bank in late 2013. The bank currently earns six percent of its total profits abroad, and Agbaje expects to generate one tenth of the group’s profit from outside of Nigeria by 2016.

“We’re trying to build a strongly African franchise and we started in Anglophone West Africa because we believe that ultimately there will be a West African economic zone. We went into Francophone Africa for that same reason. The three East African countries we’re in right now give us a client base of 87 million, and they’ve also discovered oil in a lot of these places. So in order to be a very profitable African institution we’re hoping to go into Mozambique and Angola next for the same reasons – reaching natural resources as well as a population size where we think we can help,” says Agbaje.

Going where the growth is
With this regional expansion in mind, GTBank is not on the cusp of entering Africa’s only developed economy, South Africa. Instead, Agbaje wants to focus on economies with a much higher growth trajectory than the matured South African economy. The hope is that the focus on countries experiencing explosive growth will bring in a surge of customers, as the bank hones in on the lower end of the retail segment through alternative approaches to capturing customers.

“In growing our retail [segment] we’re trying to use all other platforms, which is why we’re using mobile and social banking on Facebook as well as looking into using other social networks. Recently, we’ve also launched a virtual SME market hub, where we put SME-type companies on the platform, creating our own little marketplace for them,” says Agbaje.

GTBank’s social banking service offering on Facebook includes balance enquiries, mobile » airtime purchases, third-party money transfers and access to 24/7 real-time customer service. The service was introduced in 2013 as part of several new value-adding channels designed to give customers a high degree of flexibility and allow people to bank safely, quickly and conveniently at all hours of the day.

Guaranty-Trust-Bank

Non-traditional banking
The bank currently has over two million followers on Facebook: the largest for any African bank. It also offers a mobile money transfer application similar to Vodafone’s popular M-Pesa service, which allows customers and non-GTBank customers to perform transfers and payments from their mobile phones to any mobile phone subscriber within the country, in addition to online banking.

“We’re not planning on making major business acquisitions, so one way for us to grow our retail base is through mobile phones. Five years ago we had a retail base of about 300,000. Today it’s 5.4 million and we’d like to get to about 10 million in the next two years,” says Agbaje. “In Nigeria, you have more than 100 million mobile subscribers today and even with people having two or three mobile phones, we’re still looking at 70-80 million potential customers so there really is a huge upside.”

Another alternative customer channel is GTBank’s ‘Express’ service: an agent banking offering that provides customers with access to financial services at convenient locations such as supermarkets, schools, cinemas, markets and restaurants. It is an initiative to reach out to the unbanked segments of the population through the use of non-banking retail outlets.

“Financial inclusion has many facets to it – it’s not just for the poor and downtrodden,” says Agbaje. “When we’re talking about a number like 10 million, you’d have to drive this type of financial inclusion by banking in non-traditional banking outlets. We piloted it with a supermarket and right now we’re in a joint partnership with a petrol station. After that we’ll be working with fast food restaurants.”

Profit before tax

58.8%

corporate

11.8%

retail

18.5%

commercial

4.7%

SME

6.3%

public sector

Catering to SMEs
To this end, GTBank has made it a key point to embrace digital technology in its search for strong business growth. The firm’s most recent venture is its SME MarketHub, which offers the resources entrepreneurs need to grow their businesses, in addition to enabling online trade and market visibility.

Customers on the MarketHub get a unique website address, a personalised online storefront, a shopping cart with no consignment fees, an online payment gateway, inventory management tools, messaging services and membership in the hub’s directory. More importantly, the hub provides access to millions of customers – as long as the SME is a new or current GT Bank customer.

The aim is to help customers promote their business online to a broad audience, buy and sell a wide range of products online and find potential business partners, suppliers etc. through the global directory. Agbaje believes this venture is set to be the key driver of profit growth in the coming years – despite the known volatility associated with SMEs. “No matter the economy, SMEs constitute the largest part of the business population,” he says. “From a banking perspective it is also one of the riskiest places to put loans. With an equity focus, we’re trying to work backwards for them. Creating a business platform, generating cash flows, growing their businesses so they will have a better chance of acquiring the services and loans that we will ultimately give them. So we’re not going to start by agreeing to loans – we’re going to help them create businesses, give them capacity in the form of accounting, corporate governance etc., and then we’ll later help grant them loans.

Tech-driven profit
By building a robust technology infrastructure to drive its mobile and electronic banking channels, GTBank could be looking at enormous growth prospects in the retail space. What’s more, following the announcement of its 2013 annual results, the firm is looking to grow its loan book by 15 to 20 percent. SMEs currently account for 10 percent of the loan portfolio.

GTBank’s audited annual results revealed that its loan book amounted to $6.3bn at the end of 2013, up 25.48 percent from $5bn the previous year. The bank’s profit before tax rose 3.9 percent to $671m in 2013, while return on average equity was up 29.3 percent. Agbaje attributes the positive results to the many technological and retail initiatives implemented by the bank in recent years.

“If you want to stay profitable, continue to grow and support efficiency then you have to develop new markets,” says Agbaje. “You can’t continue to grow only the corporate end of the business or the high end of retail, because if you do, you’ll get to a point where you can’t grow anymore. So in order to sustain growth you have to open new markets – whether it’s retail or SME.”

To this end, the CEO maintains that GTBank will continue to strengthen its core business areas such as oil and gas, maritime, manufacturing and corporate business. By not giving up market share in traditionally strong areas and moving into new regions, the firm is looking to gradually extract more profit.

Guaranty-Trust-Bank-Presence-in-Africa

Keeping costs down
However, as most people know, plans for expansion across regions and offerings tend to come with additional costs. With an aim to achieve a 40 percent cost-to-income ratio by 2016, the bank is hard-pressed to make its growth strategy as efficient as possible. According to Agbaje, this involves ensuring economies of scale across suppliers, hiring at entry-level to keep staffing expenses down, as well as focusing less on a sizeable branch network and more on alternative, cheaper delivery channels such as online and mobile banking. “It’s all about being aware that everything you do is relevant to capital expenditure. Whether it’s people or bricks-and-mortar, always go for the cheaper, more efficient options,” he says.

With a brand hinged on professionalism, ethics, integrity, and the concept that the ‘customer is king’, it is worth asking whether efficiency to that level is compatible with the bank’s high standards of customer service.

“You have to segment your business properly so nobody suffers,” says Agbaje. “For instance, in retail you have human beings servicing your high-net-worth and personal banking clients, while your mass retail clients will be serviced through other channels that are less expensive – like the contact centre we’re about to complete in Nigeria with about 1,000 call-centre agents. Straight-through processing like mobile and online banking and our ATM network ensures that we are able to keep our service standards up as we expand.”

Choosing a customer-friendly outlook was never a hard choice for GTBank, which took advantage of a gap in the market when launching in Nigeria 23 years ago. “When we came into the banking industry, all the colonial banks were not known for service, so there was a good niche for us to pick in order to attract customers,” says Agbaje.

Guaranty trust bank profit after tax

550m

USD, 2012

564m

USD, 2013

This is also why corporate social responsibility (CSR) is a major focus for the bank, which, as opposed to its competitors, is not focusing its marketing or philanthropic efforts on attracting a wealthy or mature clientele. Rather, GTBank has made the young African population its main focus – a group that is large and generally underbanked. The bank’s CSR strategy includes adopting non-fee-paying schools by helping to teach, run labs, refurbish and improve facilities. Other key areas include sponsoring sports, arts and music initiatives for young people, in addition to a programme for children with autism.

“Banking is a service-driven business and all the money we make comes from our customers. CSR should be important to any corporate organisation – even for selfish reasons, because if you take care of people in an economy where you are trying to grow, a natural love comes with it,” says Agbaje.

Whether it’s GTBank’s dedication to its customers or the alternative approaches to retail growth that it supports, one thing is for sure: it has been the most profitable bank in Nigeria consecutively for the last three years, and 2014 could prove just as positive.

Foreign direct investment flows into China despite slowing economy

China’s foreign direct investment inflows rose at an annual pace of 2.2 percent in the first six months of 2014, indicating investors are still cautiously optimistic about the world’s second-largest economy. New data from the Commerce Ministry says China attracted $63.3bn in FDI over the period and that June inflows rose 0.2 percent from a year earlier to $14.4bn – its 16th straight month of gains.

FDI inflows in China have maintained steady growth every year since the country joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, with inflows reaching a record high of $118bn in 2013. Foreign investment is an important way of measuring the health of the external economy, which China’s vast production and manufacturing sector is largely dependent upon. The continued growth in flows is considered proof of faith in the Asian economy, despite FDI being a small contributor to overall capital flows when compared with exports (which were worth about $2trn in 2013).

[T]here’s evidence of continued weakness as China’s economy struggles to regain momentum

Problematically, Chinese exports and manufacturing have generally slumped since the beginning of the year. Despite a small improvement in output in June, there’s evidence of continued weakness as China’s economy struggles to regain momentum.

Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist for China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC said in a recent investment note that the Chinese “economy continues to show more signs of recovery, and this momentum will likely continue over the next few months, supported by stronger infrastructure investments. However there are still downside risks from a slowdown in the property market, which will continue to put pressure on growth in the second half of the year.”

Second quarter GDP figures, which are due soon, are expected to be roughly in line with first quarter results, when the economy grew by 7.4 percent year on year. That was its weakest pace in 18 months – it grew by 7.7 percent in the last quarter of 2013.

What’s more, despite FDI flows growing, foreign investors have lost some of their enthusiasm. China’s May FDI figures accounted for $8.6bn in flows, which were a significant 6.7 percent drop from a year earlier. That is a weak showing for one of the world’s fastest-growing major economies.

China’s property slowdown could have a domino effect on global commodities

When Bill Gates tweeted that China had consumed more cement in the three years leading to 2013 than the US had in the whole of the 20th century, Twitter went into overdrive. Some speculated that he was misusing statistics; others assumed that he was just wrong. But not only was Gates entirely correct, the statistics tell a very alarming story.

Between 2011 and 2013, China used 6.6 gigatonnes of cement; 1.1 gigatonnes more than what the US used between 1901 and 2000, according to Vaclav Smil in Making the Modern World. “Concrete is the foundation (literally) for the massive expansion of urban areas of the past several decades, which has been a big factor in cutting the rate of extreme poverty in half since 1990,” Gates wrote about Smil’s findings on GatesNotes.com. “In 1950, the world made roughly as much steel as cement; by 2010, steel production had grown by a factor of eight but cement had gone up by a factor of 25.”

The sharp increase in the global consumption of cement over the latter half of the 20th century was driven by the vast improvements in quality of life experienced in the West but also by unprecedented levels of rural-urban migration in industrialised nations. This is an ongoing trend globally, as more people join the middle classes. Over the past three decades, China has experienced phenomenal growth – much faster than anywhere else in the world.

88%

of Mongolia’s exports go to China

73%

of Turkmenistan’s exports go to China

68%

of Gambia’s exports go to China

The emergence of the Chinese middle class over the past couple of decades has impacted more than anything else in history the world’s building and commodities market. Suddenly, rural workers were moving in droves to industrial centres; factories, railways, highways, energy infrastructure and entire towns had to be built where previously there was nothing. In part, it was this huge investment that kept the Chinese economy ticking upwards so fast; increased demand fuelled increased investment.

Building for growth
Since the onset of the financial crisis in 2007/08, though, the story behind China’s rapid investment in the property sector and infrastructure completely changed. Investment in infrastructure became a way to keep the economy growing, as foreign demand plummeted. In addition, the Chinese Government relaxed its attitudes toward credit in a bid to fuel domestic demand. So, as the rest of the world contracted, China continued to build skyscrapers, mansions, high-speed rail lines, theme parks, and anything else it could shape concrete into – with little or no regard for commercial viability.

In 2013, this cycle of investment started to unwind. The Chinese economy grew at its slowest rate since the end of the 20th century: 7.7 percent. Shockwaves were felt globally. A slowdown in China directly impacts a lot of other countries, and can have a domino effect on global growth. China imports 88 percent of all Mongolia’s exports, 20 percent of all Brazil’s exports, and 10 percent of the US’, to name a but a few.

Though the slowdown was driven at least in part by weak global demand, the domestic repercussions have been monumental; and growth is unlikely to pick up significantly any time soon. One of the hardest-hit industries in China has been the real estate and property sector, once responsible for driving growth. In the first four months of 2014, real-estate sales were down 7.8 percent compared with the same period a year earlier. If that wasn’t bad enough, construction on new projects was down 22.1 percent during the same period, compared to a year earlier, according to official government figures.

The figures are bad enough when taken at face value, but Gate’s tweet reminds us exactly how catastrophic this 22.1 percent decline actually is. The sheer scale of the Chinese construction industry means that any decline, however small, can have consequences globally. According to Moody’s, the residential property sector in China accounts for 24 percent of the country’s steel consumption, and as the sale and outfitting of apartments has plummeted 23 percent, it has taken with the it the price of iron ore. The consequences have been dire for Australia, which relies on the its copious iron ore exports, and has suffered tremendously as prices dropped 23.3 percent in 2014.

Bringing down the house
Australia has also experienced robust growth over the past decade, and most of that success is inextricably linked to China. Around 80 percent of Australia’s exports are commodities; 30 percent of the country’s total exports are bound for China (see Fig. 1). The slowdown in the Chinese economy has already had severe implications for Australia. “If you had a serious slowdown in Chinese property, which we are sort of seeing at the moment, you could easily shave off a percent or so from the real GDP numbers [for Australia],” Damien Boey, a Credit Suisse analyst, told The Sydney Morning Herald.

In early June, shares in Australian mining companies dropped to their lowest since 2012, as the price of commodities exported to China continued to drop. Australia has been investing heavily in infrastructure to support its mining sector, including building new ports approving controversial new mines. A lot of these developments depend on strong demand from China to be economically viable. It is likely that Australian commodities exports will eventually find another home, and the country will be less exposed to China, but in the meantime it’s not looking good.

It might seem like Australia is stuck between a rock and a hard place, but other countries are even more dependent on China. Mongolia, Turkmenistan and Gambia, for instance, rely on China to pick up 88, 73 and 68 percent of their exports respectively – and these countries have much less diversified economies than Australia. For Mongolia, in particular, the slowdown of the Chinese property market is nothing short of catastrophic.

Historically, when times have gotten tough for Mongolia economically, it has looked to China for support and trade, but as China slows down, it will inevitably drag down its neighbours too. Mongolia’s chief advantage is that its main exports are actually coal briquettes, widely used in China as fuel for home cookers and heaters. Up to 70 percent of China’s primary energy supply comes from coal, and though the country produces much of it internally, the briquettes imported from Mongolia are a vital source of energy for Chinese households, particularly in rural or poorer areas, where it has replaced firewood.

Source: Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade
Source: Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade

Though the Mongolian economy has been performing very strongly over the past few years – as it begins to explore its rich copper and iron ore deposits – the sheer volume of exports into China means the country could run into some trouble. Because of its location, nestled between China and Russia, Mongolia can certainly expand its trading horizons, but so far it has failed to do so. Only 2.1 percent of its exports make it to Russia.

Over-reliance on real estate
China’s overreliance on real estate to fuel its economy is not news, but the scale at which this had been occurring was unprecedented. The sale and outfitting of apartments accounts for almost a quarter of the country’s GDP, a worrying statistic; at the peak of their respective housing bubbles the US, Spain and Ireland did not rely on the property sector as heavily as China does today. This overexposure to the property market is also having problematic repercussions on the local financial services sector, as would be expected. Lenders, in both the conventional and shadow banking sectors, have been left terribly exposed as house prices fall and construction stalls on new projects. Debt levels in China have been increasing rapidly, and in 2013 there was more corporate debt issued there than anywhere else in the world. A large portion of those loans will inevitably have gone to the many property developers who are now watching their investments fail.

The images of ‘ghost’ cities, peppered about the Chinese countryside, have made the rounds online for the last couple of years. The deserted skyscrapers and unkempt gardens, though really quite shocking, only tell part of the story. According to analysts at Gavekal Dragonomics, it is actually the coastal cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, which are driving the price decline: Rosealea Yao and Thomas Gatley have noted that house prices in these overheated markets have increased by 20-30 percent per year over the past few years; the decline in house prices is in part driven by the market correcting itself from these previous gains.

“And when sales growth slowed in late 2013,” Yao and Gatley wrote in their analysis, “developers starting cutting prices in some cities to boost sales and cash flow. The price cuts were focused in cities with high prices, because that’s where they had the best chance of boosting sales. Unfortunately, those large, high-profile cities serve as bellwethers for the national market, and as word of falling prices spread, sales and sentiment were hurt across the country.”

According to research by the Nomura Group from Japan, the downturn is actually a sign that a property bubble that has already burst. “To us, it is no longer a question of ‘if’ but rather ‘how severe’ the property market correction will be,” three Nomura analysts wrote in a report released in May, and for them there is little the Chinese government can do to halt the crash: “There is no policy that is universally right.”

According to the Nomura analysts, property investment in China began to slump in four of the 26 provinces in early 2014, and in two of these provinces, the decline was greater than 25 percent. The analysts predict that the fallout could be so severe that GDP growth will be pushed below six percent this year, for the first time in decades. For Nomura, China might even be heading for a hard landing, with growth dropping below five percent for four consecutive quarters.

So far, the Chinese Government has not taken significant steps towards mitigating the effects of the property market slowdown, even as other industries are beginning to be dragged down as well.

Industrial production, which is heavily correlated with the property sector, has already started slowing down. Retail growth sales have also been weak, dropping from 12.2 percent in March to 11.9 percent in April. A significant number of international companies are exposed to these industries in China, and if output continues to drop, it could trigger another global downturn. The clock is certainly ticking for the Chinese Government to make a move, but so far it has been curiously reluctant to intervene. Meanwhile, all the rest of us can do is wait with baited breath as the dominos topple.

Manufacturing capital

Following a prolonged stint of explosive growth, GCC policymakers have been landed with the task of stabilising and diversifying the region’s economy. Having accumulated a vast pool of wealth in recent years, leaders must now identify economic drivers that are separate from oil, and put their funds to use in laying the foundations for sustainable growth. Here we take a look at some of the region’s biggest challenges and opportunities, and highlight the companies that have played an instrumental part in the GCC’s path to prosperity in the World Finance GCC Awards 2014.

“Higher world oil prices have raised the revenues of Gulf oil producers to unprecedented heights,” says Atif Kubursi, Professor of Economics at McMaster University in Canada. “Unfortunately the oil fortunes have not led to diversified and productive economic structures, as could and should have been realised given their enormous wealth. The GCC countries are more rich than they are developed.” The GCC boasts the largest proven oil reserves of any region worldwide, representing little over 35 percent of the world’s total at approximately 486.8 billion barrels. Discussions of the area’s prosperity, therefore, are often intertwined with developments in oil and gas, or fluctuations in the commodity’s price.

Oil prices reached an all-time-high of $147.27 a barrel in July 2008, and GDP in the GCC region increased threefold in the period from 2002 to 2008, throughout which demand for oil was strong and geopolitical stability much improved. However, growth in the region’s oil sector slowed to a crawl in 2013, finishing the year at 0.4 percent. While the sector is expected to post closer to 1.5 percent growth in 2014, the unimpressive figures serve as a sobering reminder of the GCC’s unsustainable economic makeup. “The Gulf countries remain today, as they were decades ago, principally undiversified and heavily dependent on the core oil sector,” says Kubursi.

Time for new revisions
Although the model has served the region well so far, evidence suggests that the commodity’s prospects are growing increasingly uncertain, and the region’s production rate could level out by 2025, contract by 2055, and go into sharp decline before the turn of the century. For instance, demand for oil plummeted soon after the financial crisis took hold, exposing the weaknesses of the region’s overreliance on hydrocarbons, and prompting policymakers and investors alike to rethink the GCC’s economic makeup.

“Were oil supplies everlasting, and the demand for oil strong and continuous, economic diversification would be pointless,” wrote Kubursi in his 1984 text, Oil, Industrialisation and Development in the Arab Gulf States. Unfortunately for the Arab Gulf states, hydrocarbon reserves are not, and the region’s huge oil and gas industry, while prosperous, has long starved the economy of the diversity it so needs.

What’s more, the shale revolution and the increasing viability of unconventional hydrocarbons is squeezing prices further still, as the geographical domination of oil production steadily moves away from the Middle East. While GCC producers – particularly Saudi Arabia – are keeping consumers well stocked in the event of supply disruptions, the wealth has so far failed to translate into jobs and domestic gains.

Source: Trading Economics
Source: Trading Economics

Consequently, economic diversification has come to be seen as one of the most important considerations for the Gulf states in cementing a more sustainable means of economic growth, as the region – for the first time in a while – looks beyond oil.

For all of the GCC countries, oil revenues as a share of total budget revenues stand above 80 percent, according to research led by BNP Paribas, representing a dangerously high dependence whichever way you look at it. The downturn in the global oil market, however, saw investments wane and development slow, and governments in the six Gulf states have since taken pains to transform their national development strategies and look to sectors aside from hydrocarbons.

Underpinned by budget surpluses and rising oil prices, spending and private sector conditions have improved in the non-oil sector of late and lifted the region’s outlook ahead of what it was. Qatar National Bank, for one, estimates that economic growth for 2014 will come to 4.7 percent, up from 3.7 the year previous and backed primarily by advances in the non-oil sector and accommodative fiscal and monetary policies.

UAE storms ahead
One country where non-oil sectors are far outperforming oil and gas related developments is the UAE, where manufacturing and hospitality have emerged this year as key growth drivers. With easy transport links to Africa, India and Central Asia, the UAE and Dubai in particular, is an attractive destination for manufacturers looking to tap opportunities in any number of emerging markets. These manufacturing opportunities, combined with record high hotel occupancy rates and air passenger traffic figures, mean that the country is no longer dependent on oil in quite the same way it has been.

Another sector exhibiting growth in the Gulf is banking, which has posted a loan growth average of 10.6 percent for this year. Led most notably by Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE, the region’s banking sector is currently in the midst of adapting for a new competitive landscape and enjoying the benefits that come with solid economic fundamentals. “The pre-crisis heyday of growth for all GCC countries is gone, leaving behind a more diverse banking landscape. Triggered primarily by macroeconomics, demographics, and regulation, the new landscape is here to stay, and it is having far-reaching consequences on both strategic and operational levels,” according to an AT Kerney report entitled The New Reality of GCC Banking.

The GCC’s non-oil sector is forecast to hit six percent for this year, far and above comparative oil-related growth and a percentage point higher than previously anticipated, according to KFH Research. This growth is due largely to the on-going expansionary fiscal policy in the region, with government spending for the region having risen approximately six to seven percent through 2013 and 2014. What’s more, inflation throughout the GCC remains relatively low, which in many cases is approximately a little over two percent (see Fig. 1). Monetary policy is also healthy, with key lending rates in the GCC standing at two percent or lower.

Figure-2-gross-domestic-product
Source: International Monetary Fund. Notes: Figures post-2014 are IMF estimates

The business environment in the GCC countries is also much improved on years passed, and, according to the World Bank’s 2014 Doing Business report, the region boasts the most hospitable climate in the Middle East and North Africa. Most of the Gulf countries ranked highly in this year’s report, with the UAE and Saudi Arabia coming in at 23 and 26 respectively. Nonetheless, other sources have been quick to point out that there exists a fair few challenges to first overcome before the GCC cements its status as a fertile ground for SMEs and investors.

“The overall picture is one of uneven progress. On one level, investors are welcomed: the countries are open to foreign ownership and red tape on things like construction permits has been cut. But on another level, there are policies restricting foreign labour and widely varying business regulations, which can stall projects and growth. These two contrasting messages from GCC countries present a conundrum for investors,” writes Aviva Freudmann, Editor of the Merck Serono-sponsored report entitled The business environment in Gulf Co-operation Council countries.

Remaining challenges
Regardless of the impressive rate at which the non-oil sector is expanding and the improved climate for doing business, the challenges of fiscal reform and job creation remain for many in the region. Although the oil sector has contributed vast sums to the region’s GDP and oil exports, this has largely failed to translate into well-paying jobs and is affecting the regions’ current account balance (see Fig. 2). Therefore, structural reforms are necessary to target inefficient bureaucracy and corruption, alongside uncompetitive tax systems, and subsidised energy that serves only to handicap the non-oil economy.

The IMF has warned that without more private sector jobs there could be a one million-job gap shared between the Gulf Arab states before 2018. Owing to an overreliance on the oil sector, the region’s public sector is growing increasingly crowded, and private companies are expected to generate only 600,000 jobs in the next five years, far short of the 1.6 million required. Another issue is that 88 percent of government jobs go to nationals, whereas just shy of 70 percent of private sector jobs go to expatriates, starving nationals of the employment they so need.

“The massive expatriate labour imported remains heavily biased toward cheap Asian workers. There is little incentive to source knowledgeable workers or create new production clusters outside oil and the high consumption economy it engenders,” says Kubursi. However, governments in the six member states are beginning to introduce laws that encourage private entities to employ nationals ahead of expatriates.

The abundance of foreign workers is symptomatic of the region’s failure to develop critical skills and inspire a strong work ethic among its citizens, according to one Booz&Co report entitled Meeting the employment challenge in the GCC: the need for a holistic strategy. Educational deficiencies alongside a lack of vocational training, and a lack of opportunities for nationals are also compounding the problem.

“Overall growth prospects in the region remain considerably below what is needed to make a dent in the high unemployment, particularly among youth,” said the IMF’s Middle East Department Director Masood Ahmed. “Many of the necessary reforms are difficult to implement during political transitions. Yet some can be pursued immediately and would help improve confidence. For example, streamlining business regulations (to start a business, register property, or obtain permits and electricity), training the unemployed and unskilled, improving customs procedures, and deepening trade integration.”

Source: BNP Paribas
Source: BNP Paribas

Irrespective of the challenges that remain for GCC governments and private enterprises, the region’s impressive growth rate has attracted foreign investment in abundance. Playing host to some of the world’s largest hydrocarbon reserves (see Fig. 3), international investors see the region’s oil sector as an assured return on investment, considering the rate at which oil prices have risen in years passed.

“Beyond oil, however, the complex and vitally important trade and investment relationship the GCC has with the world is less well known. New markets are being sought around the world for a growing range of non-oil goods and services, while, on the investment side, both the well-capitalised sovereign wealth funds and an increasing range of private investors have built up wide-ranging investment portfolios. Emerging markets, especially in Asia, are becoming increasingly important economic partners for the GCC,” reads one report by the Economist Intelligence Unit.

Central to the GCC’s improved investment landscape is the increasing economic clout of India, China and Sub-Saharan Africa on the world stage. To put the rise of emerging markets into perspective, findings presented by the Economist Intelligence Unit show that non-OECD global nominal GDP accounted for 16 percent of the total, whereas in 2015 the amount is projected to reach 41 percent. As emerging markets continue to gain in stature, many will be looking to the GCC as an accommodating environment in which to work and a crucial trading partner.

Provided that the six GCC states expand upon their economic make up and take advantage of their proximity to rapidly emerging markets, the region will stand at the forefront of global economic affairs. To celebrate the GCC’s transformation, World Finance pays tribute to the companies leading the region’s most impressive advances in the GCC Awards 2014.

Mongolia looks to end mining purgatory

Just two years ago, economic observers around the world were enthusiastically trumpeting one Asian economy as the next great investment opportunity. While much has been said about China and India over the last decade, it was the more sparsely populated Mongolia that had got global investors so excited.

Here was a country that had been experiencing staggering GDP growth since 2008, as high as 17 percent in 2011 – as predicted by the IMF – and during a period of global economic strife to boot (see Fig. 1). Fuelled by the discoveries of vast quantities of coal, copper, gold and other minerals, and a subsequent mining boom, Mongolia’s economy was set to take off. According to the IMF, mining accounts for a colossal 71 percent of the country’s income, emphasising just how important it is to the economy, especially for a country of just three million people.

However, by the beginning of 2013, enthusiasm had taken a serious hit. A parliamentary election that was more about short-term populism and less about long-term strategy saw a series of rules brought in that seriously hampered investment opportunities and deterred many potential overseas investors. Slight amendments subsequently have suggested an acceptance of the need to get the country back on track, but Mongolia’s government still has much to do if it is to persuade the world that it really is the great investment opportunity it had promised to be.

Untapped frontier
For many mining explorers, Mongolia represents the largest and last untapped frontier in the world. Kincora, a Canadian-listed copper exploration firm, has been developing a number of projects in the country. CEO Sam Spring told World Finance that there is clearly vast potential in the country, but turning that potential into a commercially viable proposition is challenging. “It is one of those last untapped frontiers. When you have a look at its geology, it’s extremely prospective. When you look at places like Chile or Peru, with similar geological belts as down in the south Gobi, there are probably commercial operations found every 30 or 40 kilometres. That potential is very much unknown still in Mongolia, because you haven’t had the stability or the exploration to make those discoveries in the copper space. In the coal space the potential is well known – a bit like iron ore in Western Australia, you can kick your toe on it. It doesn’t need much exploration to find it. With that underground copper there are more of those advanced techniques that need to take place.”

Mongolia’s government still has much to do if it is to persuade the world that it really is the great investment opportunity it had promised to be

Largely dominated by coal and copper deposits, Mongolia has a plethora of other valuable minerals deep within the ground. The largest deposits of coal and copper can be found in the Ömnögovi Province to the south of the country, with the Tavan Tolgoi coal mine and the Oyu Tolhgi (OT) copper mine being the most important sources.

While many investors talk passionately of gold, uranium and other valuable deposits, coal and copper are in such huge quantity that they are the cornerstones of the country’s economy, according to IHS’ Asia-Pacific analyst Neil Ashdown. Speaking to World Finance he said: “When we talk about copper and coal, it’s important to stress just how much there is. There are huge deposits and they’re right on the doorstep to China. I think sometimes people forget just how important these deposits are strategically in terms of Southeast Asia. In terms of other minerals, there’s uranium in the east of Mongolia, and that was mined by the Soviets.”

The leading firms exploring these deposits include partnerships between the government and other countries, such as the Chinese-Mongolian company Mongolia Energy Corporation and the Russian-Mongolian Erdent Mining Corporation. Private firms like Rio Tinto are also active, as well as a number of smaller explorers.

Stunted potential
Mongolia’s staggering potential and need for foreign investment is recognised by the government, says Ashdown: “There’s no doubt that the opportunity is there, in terms of minerals in the ground. I think also, if you look at things very broadly, in terms of the government’s attitude [it] is very aware of the need for foreign participation, particularly in the mining sector and especially some of the more technically advanced projects that it’s thinking of working on.”

Yet, investor sentiment was badly hit by the uncertainty that resulted from the election campaigns of 2012 and 2013. According to Ashdown: “There are a couple of countervailing points. Firstly, we had the election cycle in 2012 and 2013. That really was very disruptive for Mongolia’s mining industry and… foreign investment, and the perception that it was a good place for foreign investment. The parliamentary election in 2012 was particularly bad, because… the outgoing parliament rushed through the Strategic Entity Foreign Investment Law (SEFIL), which did a lot of damage to the country’s investment environment and [the] perception [of it] as a good place to invest.”

Shortly before the 2012 parliamentary election, the outgoing government hastily passed a bill that was designed to assuage local fears over the rampant exploitation of Mongolia’s natural resources. SEFIL was rushed through before the election in May and proved deeply unpopular among foreign investors. The law made it much harder for foreign firms to obtain approval for mining, in particular the Aluminium Corporation of China’s (CHALCO) bid to seize control of a large coal deposit. As a result, analysts believe that the law culminated in a massive slump of 43 percent in overseas investment over the course of the following year.

Coupled with a halt to new exploration licences, 2012 proved to be a difficult period for the mining industry in Mongolia. “It’s been quite a difficult recent history,” says Spring. “The Chalco dispute over the south Gobi, [which] came just ahead of the 2012 election, led to a new foreign investment law that shut things down. Before that, there was a moratorium on exploration licences. If you look at the exploration sector, per se, you’ve gone from about 50 percent of Mongolia’s territory that was covered by exploration licences, to a number that I think is less than eight percent.”

In response to the negative sentiment from investors and subsequent downturn, Mongolia’s government swiftly axed SEFIL. “The 2013 presidential elections were less disruptive because people had realised what had happened and since then the Mongolian government has been working very conscientiously to portray itself as supportive of foreign investment. [It] passed in November 2013 [a] new investment law, which set out a level playing field for foreign and local investors, and addressed many of the concerns that were raised by SEFIL,” says Spring.

Source: International Monetary Fund. Notes: Post-2011 figures are IMF estimates
Source: International Monetary Fund. Notes: Post-2011 figures are IMF estimates

Despite these changes, Mongolia is still trapped in an election cycle that has done little to soothe the concerns of the mining industry, which requires around 10 years to get its projects up and running. “It’s going to come up again at the start of the next election cycle in 2016, which in terms of putting money into a major mining or infrastructure project is not very far away at all,” says Spring. “The concern is that if we see a repeat of the disruption that we saw in 2012 and 2013, then it will further exacerbate the damage that’s been done.”

Licensing disputes
Another issue that has deterred investors is the concern over the lack of new exploration licences being offered, as well as the disputes that are occurring over existing ones. Spring says that many of the existing licences are starting to get old and need to be renewed, and the uncertainty is harming investor sentiment. “Within the exploration space, despite all this huge potential, there hasn’t been a lot of work done. A lot of the licences out there are getting a bit old, and if you’re a major company and you know that it generally takes over 10 years to go from discovery to production, then you’re probably a bit hesitant coming in, as opposed to other jurisdictions.”

Disputes over licences are also causing uncertainty and concern that the government will try and renegotiate deals to assuage local anger. Ashdown says that disputes like the one involving the government and Rio Tinto over the second phase of the OT project have eroded the cautious optimism of last year. “The problem is that there have been a number of high profile issues, most notably the OT second phase expansion project, where there’s an ongoing dispute between the government and Rio Tinto,” says Spring. “The attention on that has taken the wind out of the sales [of] those positive regulatory developments.”

Kincora is currently involved in a licensing dispute, and Spring believes that such situations benefit nobody. “This licence dispute that we’re caught up with is not in anyone’s interest. It’s causing less investment and less employment. Any groups looking at Mongolia and doing their due diligence will get spooked by it, because security of tender and a transparent legal process are the cornerstones of foreign investment.”

He adds that lifting the restrictions on new licences also needs to happen if the industry is going to get investment back on track. “The exploration sector as a whole has come into somewhat of a natural death, unless they lift this moratorium. A lot of the licences are coming to the end of their term, and when that happens there is a security of tender issue. You look at all the other disputes that are taking place in Mongolia, and you can understand why people are getting a little bit nervous.”

China-Russia balancing act
Another issue that Mongolia’s government faces is its relationships with its neighbours. Previously controlled by both China and Russia, Mongolians are wary of being overly tied to either country. Its history as a Soviet satellite state is still an unwelcome memory for many Mongolians. And with China’s economic dominance, demand for natural resources and location just next to Mongolia, it is exerting increasing influence in the country.

71%

of Mongolia’s GDP comes from mining

The government is therefore engaged in a careful balancing act between the two nations. “In China, there is an appreciation that as Mongolia struggles economically then [it] will be more willing to accept the kind of Chinese investment that [it was] previously more hesitant about,” says Ashdown. “The Mongolian Government’s strategy has always been to lean towards Russia. They are very much aware that they’re engaged in a balancing act between these two countries. China is the country that perhaps has the most natural tendency to exert disproportionate influence over Mongolia, because it is the dominant trading partner by a long way, particularly in terms of exports.”

How Mongolia gets back on track will depend on what strategy the government takes in the future. It has two very enthusiastic customers right on its borders in the shape of China and Russia, but a relatively small workforce that is concerned about the impact of foreign investment and rampant resource exploration. One way to balance these demands is to use the profits from its mining industry to provide services to its people.

If it wants to provide a balanced economy in the future, the government must invest the profits from the mining industry towards building new infrastructure, while also training its workforce, says Ashdown. “The only way in which you’re going to make Mongolia’s economic growth sustainable is if you have an engine driving the economy – mining – and you funnel all that money into developing infrastructure or making a city like Ulaanbaatar a more liveable place. It’s not just about the mining industry, but you need it there if you’re going to make the economy sustainable in the long term.”

While the government obviously has a major role to play in educating the population, companies working within the mining industry are doing their bit, and education should remain the core focus for the country. “In a country like Mongolia that is a relatively young democracy, where the state took care of everything during the Soviet era, there still needs to be a very educational approach by the whole industry,” says Spring. “OT has done a great job in terms of educating and taking that lead, but it does need to come from junior firms like Kincora, all the way to bigger firms, in terms of lobbying for good policy to trying to employ local people, good training, and [having] best-in-class legislation that’s in the interest of all stakeholders.”

While the promise of 2012 has been replaced with a sense of disappointment, investors should still realise the vast potential that there is in Mongolia. Its GDP is still expected to rise at rates far greater than most other countries, and its many resources will always be in demand. “We’re talking about a country that’s had growth rates that have been world leading, and so when we talk of a downturn it’s about those figures not being quite so incredible,” says Ashdown.

What Mongolia must do is to assure foreign investors that it is a business-thinking country where their money is welcome and secure, and will be used for long-term growth, rather than short-term populism.

Could Apple’s purchase of Beats restore the brand to its former ‘cool’ glory?

Once known as the perfect blend of hipster cool and technological innovation, Apple’s reputation has in recent years shifted in the eyes of the public to one of mainstream dominance and bland uniformity. A company that was a decade ago heralded as providing a hip alternative to the stuffy dominance of Microsoft has now reached a point where it’s considered to be mainstream. Gone are the days of your typical Apple user being someone that works in the creative industries. Instead, it’s much more likely that Apple’s core users are white, middle-aged, middle class or extremely wealthy.

Its reputation for innovation has also always been well ahead of its competitors. Turning touchscreen phones and tablets into mainstream products is something that Apple has been credited with, and it did so by designing these products in-house. Despite its colossal cash pile – said to be roughly $150bn at the time of press – Apple has been reluctant to acquire rival companies, instead developing new products itself.

While it may buy a few small start-ups, it has rarely made the sort of large-scale acquisitions that rivals Google and Facebook have become known for. However, the recent purchase of headphone-maker and music streaming service Beats for $3bn has been criticised by many observers as a sign that Apple has run out of ideas and is in desperate need of an injection of the sort of cool that it was once known for.

The deal represents a dramatic departure from Apple’s usual strategy, and some think it’s because Beats has captured a number of demographics that Apple has struggled to attract over the years. Targeting young, fashion-conscious people, Beats has successfully secured a hold of this market as a result of its celebrity endorsements and design, rather than the quality of its audio. The huge popularity among these fashion-conscious groups is also similar to the reaction of the same types of people who a decade ago wanted Apple’s white iPod headphones.

Smartphone preference

African American users 2013:

73%

iPhone

27%

Android

Total market users:

59%

iPhone

41%

Android

Source: Nelson

While neither are renowned for their sound quality, Beats has taken over from Apple’s white headphones as the preferred choice for vain music fans the world over. Senior Apple Executive Eddy Cue may have claimed after the deal “you don’t buy cool, you make the best products in the world and make them cool,” but it certainly seems as though the Beats acquisition is an attempt by Apple to recapture the image it had a decade ago.

Out of ideas?
Although many put the decline in innovation and image down to the death of iconic founder Steve Jobs in 2011, in reality, the company had achieved its mainstream status long before his demise. Ever since the iPhone became the must-have tech accessory, the company’s outsider status has been diminished. Even before that, a surer sign of its status was reflected in its partnership with rock giants U2 – the biggest band in the world at the time – for an iPod advert.

However, some observers do believe that the loss of Jobs to the company, and his replacement by the more reserved Tim Cook as CEO, has led to a decline in innovation and a lack of fanfare to its new products. Such was Steve Jobs’ charisma that the phrase ‘reality distortion field’ was dubbed to describe the effect he had on employees and fans of Apple’s products.

Whereas the innovations that the company would announce were on the face of it quite similar to existing products on the market – such as the many MP3 players available before the iPod – the reactions that they got from the press were said to be totally out of proportion with reality.

Certainly the company hasn’t released anything as ground breaking as the iPad or iPhone since Jobs passed away, and it has lost considerable ground in the mobile device market to the likes of Google and Samsung. However, there are signs that it is looking to address these issues with a range of new products, as well as strategic acquisitions, as seen with the deal for Beats.

Initially reported to be worth $3.2bn, the deal was revised down to $3bn when officially announced at the end of May. While no official reason was given for this decision, the over-eager way Beats founder Dr Dre announced himself as “hip hop’s first billionaire” in an online video two weeks before the announced might have had something to do with it.

USD, Millions. Source: Apple (I) Greater China includes includes China, Hong Kong and Taiwan
USD, Millions. Source: Apple (I) Greater China includes includes China, Hong Kong and Taiwan

Some people have reservations about the deal, however. While Apple founder Steve Wozniak told CNET recently that the Beats deal represented the company “getting back to some cool roots”, Yukari Iwatani Kane, author of the book Haunted Empire: Apple After Steve Jobs told World Finance the thinking behind the deal is “difficult to understand”.

“Apple in the past has done acquisitions where they buy technology or talent, but they’ve never bought a company for its brand and for its ‘cool’. It’s Apple that has defined ‘cool’ for the last decade plus, and so the fact that they have to borrow or capitalise from somebody else, I think is a problem,” said Kane.

“The best reason I’ve heard is that [the deal] is part of Apple’s vision for a connected home. But I still keep coming back to the price. $3bn is a lot of money, and you would think that the company could do a lot with that themselves. The iPhone was developed internally with a couple hundred million dollars, so why does it need to buy Beats?”

Music streaming
The breakdown of the deal seems to value the music streaming service at just below $500m, with the headphones business at over $2.5bn. However, many observers believe the music service is Apple’s main reason for buying Beats. It has lost ground to rivals like Spotify in recent years, with music fans preferring subscription services to the download model of iTunes.

Apple purchase of Beats financial breakdown

$400m

in Apple stock

$2.6bn

in cash

Kane says that buying Beats Music is a response to the decline in popularity for iTunes, but the company is not big enough yet to challenge the likes of Spotify and Rdio. “iTunes is not what it once was, so I can see why Apple would want to capitalise on Jimmy Iovine and Dr Dre’s relationships with the music industry and to come up with something more hip. But the [Beats] music service is so nascent: there aren’t that many subscribers, it’s just in the US, and most of the subscribers aren’t paying anything yet. So if Apple were looking for a music service, you’d think there would be better companies to buy.”

Michael Battista, Senior Consulting Analyst at Info-Tech Research Group, told World Finance that the music service would offer Apple a route to partnerships with the music industry, but the service still needed to be rolled out internationally to turn it into a big music-streaming player. “On the streaming side, a challenge will be maintaining or developing partnerships with labels and artists. Maybe that’s part of what Apple is buying into with the acquisition, but there are still issues such as getting the service out internationally.”

The Beats headphone business is certainly profitable, with revenues for 2013 hitting $1.4bn. However, it has a reputation for being more about style than the quality of its audio. Kane says that this doesn’t match with Apple’s usual approach. “The headphones are obviously very popular, but they’re known more for design than the sound quality. The design is also the complete opposite of Apple’s style. I’m not sure how that fits in Apple’s product offering.”

Battista agrees that the deal may not fit with Apple’s traditional product strategy. “One challenge is the recent image of Beats hardware. It’s become known for being high in style, high in price, but low in quality. Apple is known for being high in style, high in price, and high in quality. That quality, or at least perception of it, needs to rise for the Beats hardware to fit in at Apple.”

Utilising a new approach
Another reason for the deal seems to be Apple’s efforts to attract high profile, charismatic talent. Jimmy Iovine – as the Chairman of record label giant Interscope Geffen – is known for his sway within the music and film industries. Hip-hop icon Dr Dre has also been able to secure a number of exclusive deals and endorsements from artists for Beats in the past. Despite having criticised Apple’s App Store censorship policies in the past, Nine Inch Nails front man and Beats Music Chief Creative Officer Trent Reznor has also agreed to stay part of the company. It is a coup for Apple, which can now boast two very different but equally idolised musicians in Dr Dre and Reznor as members of its staff.

$3bn

total paid by Apple for Beats

$1.4bn

Beats revenues for 2013

Apple also seems to be pushing some of its more charismatic executives into the spotlight, perhaps to make up for the more reserved presence of Cook and the loss of Jobs. Craig Federighi, Senior Vice President for Software Engineering, has been praised for his light-hearted and enthusiastic performances at recent keynote speeches. Frederighi and acclaimed British designer Jony Ive even shared the cover of a BusinessWeek feature with Cook last year, something that would never have happened were Jobs still around.

Aside from the Beats acquisition, Apple unexpectedly hired Burberry CEO Angela Ahrendts earlier in the year to head up its retail division. A high profile hire, Ahrendts is seen as someone that can bring a fashion-conscious mind to the tech giant, just as the market for wearable computing becomes mainstream. All these efforts seem to be part of a new strategy by Cook to bat off accusations that the company has become stagnant under his leadership.

For example, he is actively looking to broaden Apple’s user base into new demographics. Part of the reason why Beats is seen as a good fit is that it is a hugely popular brand among the young black community. It is this community that Apple has struggled to attract, with a survey by Nielsen showing that 73 percent of black Americans own Android-based smartphones. Kane says that these changes appear necessary if Apple is to emerge from Jobs’ shadow. “I do feel that Apple and Tim Cook are trying to evolve, and becoming more comfortable with their post-Steve Jobs reality knowing that they have to do something different, and that they can’t just stick with what they’ve done in the past.

“It feels like Cook is trying to create his own vision and make his own decisions, and what’s interesting to me is that he’s hiring outside talent. Apple’s head of PR [Katie Cotton], who had been at the company since Jobs returned in 1997, has gone as well, and that looks to me like Apple trying to move on. The question to me is whether a new vision can convince. The biggest thing Apple seems to have lost is its ability to inspire and convince everybody that their products are the greatest. What will be interesting to me is how they paint this new vision, because they really haven’t yet.”

Apple's-financial-data-USD-millions

A number of years without much innovation has meant Apple is slipping behind rivals like Google in terms of offering exciting new products, but there are signs that this might be set to change. The recent World Wide Developer Conference in June unveiled a range of new software that was more open and forward thinking than anything from the company in years.

Giving developers access to new tools, as well as the previously closed-off Siri and TouchID, could position the firm at the centre of everyone’s digital lives – especially with home automation, health tracking and payment technologies set to go mainstream. They might just be going back to being the company that that was welcoming to third party developers, rather than insisting on their ‘walled-garden’ model.

iWatch and Beats headphones will look to target the fashion-conscious consumers that are so lucrative. Indeed, iWatch is rumoured to come in a number of increasingly expensive styles, less because of the tech and more due to the stylish materials that house it. Indie musicians and major labels alike trust Jimmy Iovine, meaning it will be easier to secure important rights deals. The artist focused and human-curated model that Beats Music employs will also go some way to making Apple appear less of a software provider reliant on a recommendation algorithm and more of an entertainment platform that has the most knowledgeable people with their fingers firmly on the pulse of their audience.

While no one can predict where Apple will go in the coming years, the challenges it faces are a consequence of its staggering success over the last 15 years. Countless examples of seemingly unstoppable businesses have crumbled throughout history, as a consequence of many factors.

Apple remains in an incredibly strong market position, the challenges of competition and stagnation are however, leading it to rethink the strategies that have made it so successful. While these challenges might be considerable, Apple’s record of pulling out surprises should not be ignored. Although the Beats deal represents a huge – and expensive – departure for Apple, the company is banking on it being able to restore it to its former ‘cool’ glory.

Dissent at Burberry as shareholders vote against remuneration report

Over half of Burberry’s shareholders have chosen not to support the company’s remuneration report after hearing the newly appointed CEO Christopher Bailey is to be awarded a pay package worth approximately £30m.

Just shy of 53 percent of the votes were cast against the report, which held a £1.1m basic salary for Bailey, alongside an optional performance bonus of anything up to 200 percent his of base pay, a £440,000 annual allowance, and a one-time award of 500,000 shares on his appointment in May. Investors were further riled by an additional million shares awarded in 2013, on top of another 350,000 awarded in 2010, scheduled to vest in 2015 and 2018 respectively, and currently worth somewhere in the region of £20m.

The shares are of particular note for Burberry shareholders, who believe financial awards detached from performance to be grossly unjust in a time when the gap between executive and worker pay is growing. However, Burberry is not the first company to suffer at the hands of unsatisfied shareholders. In 2012, Aviva saw 60 percent of its shareholders rally against a golden hello of £2.2m for its incoming UK executive, while a little under 40 percent of Randgold Resources’ shareholders voted against a £2.5m share award for its chief executive last year.

Burberry is not the first company to suffer at the hands of unsatisfied shareholders

The shareholder protest was put forwards as part of a non-binding say on pay vote, meaning the FTSE 100 company will not necessarily be forced into making a change. However, Burberry will be looking to address shareholders’ concerns that Bailey is being rewarded irrespective of performance.  Only 16 percent of shareholders decided not to back Burberry’s overall pay policy, and the Chief Executive’s appointment received an impressive 99 percent backing from those with a say.

The complaint comes at the same time as a High Pay Centre report that the ratio of executive pay to that of the average worker has grown from 60-to-one in the 1990s to 180-to-one today. According to the report, average pay for a FTSE 100 company executive came to £4.7m last year, up from £4.1m the year before. The think tank argues extreme action must be taken to close the gap between worker and executive.

“It’s time to get serious about tackling the executive pay racket,” said the High Pay Centre’s Director, Deborah Hargreaves. “The government’s tinkering won’t bring about a proper change in the UK’s pay culture. We need to build an economy where people are paid fair and sensible amounts of money for the work that they do, and the incomes of the super-rich aren’t racing away from everybody else.”

Ireland is the ‘most recognised financial service centre in the world’, says Mediolanum Asset Management

Ireland was the first country in the eurozone to slip into a recession, and has now bounced back and proved to be fertile ground for the financial services industry. One company that has taken off in the country is Mediolanum Asset Management. World Finance speaks to company representatives Furio Pietribiasi, Adrian Doyle and Luc Simoncini to find out about the organisation’s latest work and products.

World Finance: Furio, what is the benefit of being located in Ireland?

Furio Pietribiasi: The beauty of being located in Ireland is that we have the leaders in the financial service industry, and it has grown now to the most recognised financial service centre in the world, particularly for mutual funds and asset management. Together with technology, because technology nowadays is a big important part of our business and how we innovate in our business. In particular for the component linked to the clients, where more and more we are challenged to provide new services. So Ireland is offering the perfect ecosystem, where you have the leaders on the IT, if you think about this, the cloud capital in Europe, and the internet capital in Europe, and together as the best financial service providers and consultants and supports which enable an organisation like ours to scale very easily up our business over the time.

[W]hat we want to do here is to ensure that we’re going to create products that are going to be relevant for our clients needs

World Finance: Very interesting. Now Furio, how does Mediolanum stay competitive as an asset manager?

Furio Pietribiasi: We actually have made a clear choice in what role we want to have in the asset management industry. More and more, the industry is becoming competitive. We have on one side active management, which is becoming a very important component of the savings and the savings for the clients, but as well it is a very challenging to be successful, and there are less and less that are successful in the space. And then on the other side we have a lot that are moving to the passive management, which again is growing faster and faster. What we have decided to do is to combine what we are good at, and using our skill in combination with the skills of the very good asset managers out there, and to package the best products for our clients that directly address their own needs, and we evolve with them over the time, their needs evolving as well together with the market’s.

World Finance: So Luc, tell me, how do you tailor your products?

Luc Simoncini: Our product development process, MedInSynC, is not just a series of sequential steps. What it is is that all our solutions are developed, evolved and supported with our brand values, core brand values at the heart. So what are they? Three brand values. One is client-centricity. So what we want to do here is to ensure that we’re going to create products that are going to be relevant for our clients needs. It is also investment quality. So what we want to do is to focus on the commercial promise that we made and we can deliver that, but from an investment perspective, so we’re going to be looking at that through MedCube, our investment approach. And the third, brand value, is execution excellence. And what we focus here is to the efficiency of the delivery of our service and products, and what we are aiming to do is to make sure that our clients, our distributors, are delighted by their Mediolanum experience.

So all these three brand values that we’ve seen are embedded together in our MedInSynC product development process to make sure that our clients at the end have an outcome which is a superior outcome for their needs. What is interesting is the journey doesn’t start and stop with the product launches, we go further, because we know market changes, we know our client needs will change, and we feel strongly at Mediolanum that it’s our duty to respond to these changes, to all the time try to figure out how we can evolve our products so they can respond to the changes needed by our clients. And the way we do that is by incorporating our client and distributors’ feedback to improve gradually, incrementally, the products so that we can always deliver on our promises. So I think that’s one of the great advantages of MedInSynC, and if it’s one thing you want to remember, it’s that capacity to allow both our distributors on one side but also our clients to invest in confidence, to invest in Mediolanum solutions that are going to be relevant for them over the long run.

[T]he client is at the forefront of our thoughts when we manage our investment solutions

World Finance: So Adrian, tell me, how do you manage your products?

Adrian Doyle: Well the client is at the forefront of our thoughts when we manage our investment solutions. Our asset management model, whose cornerstone is the investment process MedCubed, focuses on external and internal skills. There are three primary performance drivers in MedCubed, the first of which is asset allocation. This is the most important, and the lever for product personalisation. The asset allocation team combines models that include fundamental macro-analysis, technical analysis, and investor positioning, all of which to determine where we are in the investment cycle of an asset. The second area is management selection. This is where we use a multi-factor approach to combine the optimal blend of best in breed managers to deliver diversification benefits. The third is security, where third party asset managers identify the best securities for our needs. So investment returns are obviously very important, but more important is managing risk and preserving capital. These are essential to long-term wealth creation, so therefore we have a dedicated risk team that looks at operational and financial risk.

In the financial risk, along with traditional risk metrics, we also have developed a program called Mapping the Rocks. Mapping the Rocks combines, in conjunction with investments and risk, to try to identify potential tail-risks in the markets. So overall, through our MedCubed investment process, plus disciplined risk management, we can deliver excellent risk adjust returns for our clients.

World Finance: Gentlemen, thank you.

All: Thank you.

Singapore economy struggles as country changes manufacturing emphasis

Lacklustre activity at Singapore’s factories has dragged the economy’s growth down to 2.1 percent in the second quarter, essentially contracting 0.8 percent on an annual basis. The data from the Singaporean Ministry of Trade and Industry stands in stark contrast to the 9.9 percent expansion in the first quarter of the year and comes down to a shift in manufacturing.

According to analysts, the poor growth stems from Singaporean efforts to move away from low-end industries, particularly in manufacturing, to focus on value-added sectors such as biotechnology and pharmaceuticals. As the island state makes the transition, growth is slowing and, what’s more, mediocre external demand from key trading partners like China continues to put strain on growth.

According to analysts, the poor growth stems from Singaporean efforts to move away from low-end industries

‘Not only may we see slower external demand in 2H 2014 affecting sectors such as manufacturing and wholesale trade, Singapore’s domestic sectors will also continue to face the challenges from the on-going economic restructuring amid tight labour market conditions. In addition, high base effects for GDP growth in 2H 2013 would weigh down further growth risks,’ said Singapore’s United Overseas Bank in a note.

On-year, GDP grew 2.2 percent, well shy of the three percent expected by economists. This decline was due to a 19.4 percent quarter-on-quarter contraction in the manufacturing sector which grew a meagre 0.2 percent, the Trade Ministry said, citing a fall in the output for electronic goods, a main export for the Southeast Asian city. Not surprisingly, the drop in output stems from waning demand from China.

According to economists at BNP Paribas ‘China’s slowing economy is raising concern about potential spill over effects beyond its shores, particularly on the rest of Asia.

‘Economies with high trade exposure to Chinese final demand and commodity-producing countries are…more likely to catch a cold when China sneezes,’ they said in an analysis of 20 years of data in order to quantify the impact of a one percent fall in Chinese economic output on the rest of Asia.

The BNP Paribas research found that 0.7 percent was on average shaved from growth elsewhere because of trade dependency. Singapore, which has seen exports to China as a share of GDP almost triple since 2000, would fare worst with as many as 1.6 percent cut from GDP growth.

This risk of a ‘hard landing’ for growth as China’s economy slows has prompted Asian policymakers to rebalance their economic activity towards domestic, consumer-led demand. It is this shift in manufacturing that is currently causing volatility in the Singaporean economy, but which many are hoping will stabilise growth in the long-term.

Sinners, health junkies and the eco-friendly benefit from thematic investing

Arms, tobacco and oil are for many considered taboo investments – albeit ones with high returns. Nevertheless, being ‘bad’ has got a new appeal for some, as ‘themes’ in investing are taking precedence over traditional investment forms.

Never before has thematic investing been so popular, and yes, the main driver is the urge of many investors to put their money in safe, sustainable and environmentally friendly firms and industries. By putting firms and shares into different categories, thematic investing helps investors home in on global economic trends, as well as invest according to their personal preferences. And despite thematic investing being driven by the recent surge in green investments, it also offers the opportunity to post big bucks in controversial industries that maintain strong returns.

Thematic investing is about identifying macroeconomic trends, driven by politics, culture and demographics, or a combination of all three. Typically, the core drivers behind most thematic investment funds are population growth, rising wealth in the developing world, natural resource scarcity, energy security and climate change.

Essentially, this is a style of investing which ignores geographical boundaries and asks investment professionals to be experts in a particular investment driver or theme, rather than hedging their bets on a diverse portfolio. It is about finding companies that match a particular human need, understanding how this need is being serviced upstream and downstream, and investing in companies that are well positioned to take advantage of changing market conditions. As such, thematic research identifies trends across sectors and geographies, providing investors with enhanced alpha.

Thematic investing is about identifying macroeconomic trends, driven by politics, culture and demographics, or a combination of all three

Typically, such themes are based on political, cultural and demographic changes, which alter the market landscape. Examples include Henderson’s sustainability themes, such as Clean Energy, Health and Social Property & Finance, while new kid on the block Motif Investing offers funds such as Seven Deadly Sins and Gay Friendly, the former of which invests in companies such as McDonald’s, British American Tobacco and gun manufacturer Sturm Ruger, and the latter in firms that promote gay rights, such as BNY Mellon, Disney and Microsoft.

Targeting rookie investors
Motif Investing also offers themes of a less controversial nature, such as BRICS Building, Bulletproof Balance Sheets, Biotech Breakthroughs and Housing Recovery. Either way, its motifs have attracted attention from media and investors, who are all keen to see whether investing in something they truly care about, or consider a key trend, could pay off. Essentially, thematic investing is a way for novice investors to gain access to well performing, albeit more volatile, themes that they could normally only access via high investment fees and sophisticated advisors.

“Clients appreciate understanding the underlying structure and logic of their portfolio in terms of the seven or eight major themes that are embedded in their portfolios,” says Daniel Paduano, a Managing Director at Neuberger Berman, a major investment house. “They also appreciate that these are real world trends and not some arcane nuances of the investment business.” Neuberger Berman’s thematic investing business plays a major role in the firm, and focuses on global education and water themes in particular.

Motif’s site, with its apparently infantile theme names, belies the difficulty of investing thematically. For one, thematic investing is expensive. Buying 30 stocks through a discount broker could cost as much as $300; Motif charges $9.95 to buy or create a collection with up to 30 stocks in it. Secondly, it’s hard for most investors to execute their chosen themes on their own.

Motif allows investors to buy thematic strategies on their own with no advice, while its advisor platform provides investment advice at a low cost.

Similarly, Neuberger Berman has a strong focus on thematic investing because it presents a lower risk compared with other investments that the wolves of Wall Street clamour to get their hands on. “Thematic investing is such a large component of our business because we believe it is a leg up in controlling risk,” says Paduano. “If you get the theme right, the company has the wind at its back. It is then up to the company to execute. Second, it pushes the emphasis on investing, beyond the time frame where the crowds in the investment business are operating and this, too, can be an edge if we get someplace earlier than others.”

Long-term bets
The key to thematic investing is maintaining a long-term outlook. Investing in trends is not something to do for a quick high-yield fix, but rather when looking for that 10-year investment that could double an investor’s savings.

“We try to identify themes that we think will have staying power in the world over a five- to seven-year period,” says Paduano. “These themes are based on movements in demographics, technology, sociology or political changes. They are meant to be enduring and not just fads. Thus, for example, the rising value of water is a theme that goes across developed and developing countries and is an issue that is going to be of increasing importance.”

Despite this, thematic investing is by no means a sure-fire way to make money, as all stocks are not necessarily going to perform well and, as such, it is an investment that presents some risks. For example, while Motif’s Seven Deadly Sins theme has amounted to 24.3 percent in returns over the past year, its stocks in tobacco-producer Philip Morris have dipped significantly over the last 12 months. The assumption is that the trend is correct over the long term, thereby hedging against the lack of diversification and potential dips in performance. In this respect, thematic investing differs from typical active managers, who would build a sophisticated portfolio across sectors, geographies and investment types.

Another concern is that thematic investing sometimes misses the trend, despite having identified it. When an investment manager picks trends – such as the growth in emerging markets, technology developments, or an aspect of the environment, such as water shortages – they have to be able to populate the themes with appropriate equities to invest in. This occasionally leads to a missing link, as you can have strong ideas about a trend, but finding companies that actually capture the ideas and are of sufficient quality and liquidity can prove difficult.

Popular trends
Given that thematic investment can’t rely on diversification as a hedge, it is all about doing significant research. At Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Global Research unit, Sarbjit Nahal is the Director of Thematic Investing. He has spent years monitoring global economic, political and cultural trends in order to build the best thematic recommendations. So-called ‘megatrends’ have helped the banking group identify some of the strongest investments out there, which have been popular with its investment bank and asset management clients.

“We have tackled seven ‘bigger picture’ global megatrends, which tie strongly into the enterprise-wide investment themes ‘earth’ (energy efficiency, extreme weather and climate change, waste, and water) and ‘people’ (education, obesity, health and wellness, safety and security), as well as ‘innovation’, ‘government’ and ‘markets’,” says Nahal.

This has resulted in Bank of America Merrill Lynch buying stocks in companies that give entry points to key themes such as energy efficiency, including firms dealing in automobiles, building, industrials, IT, lighting and LEDs, energy storage, and transport. This comes as a result of significant research, which suggests the growing demand for energy will lead to an energy crisis and thus drive interest in companies that offer energy-efficient solutions. However, it’s no easy feat to find the exact firm, which will gain massively from a global trend.

“One of the biggest risks is to identify a theme and then go buy a bunch of companies involved without thorough research into that specific company including a judgment as to whether the valuation is attractive,” says Paduano.

Because of this, investment banks and firms who wish to focus on thematic investing need to invest in research capabilities, first and foremost. “Themes are chosen and maintained by doing research in a broad range of subjects through reading books, journals and periodicals covering technology, science, demographics, social and political trends. This is a lot of reading away from Wall Street reports,” explains Paduano.

Themes such as water, health and energy infrastructure have all performed well for investment firms when compared to major indexes. For the long-term investor, betting on major trends could prove to be a profitable, albeit volatile, decision. And for the savvy, modern and socially conscious investor, thematic investing could be one of the best solutions out there for picking and choosing just the right stock. Seemingly, this is why the investment field has never been so popular as it is now.

Pohjola Asset Management excels at risk management

The everyday task of turning a healthy profit in the asset management industry is proving increasingly difficult, as regulatory pressures have impacted an industry already impeded by the many reputational knocks stemming from the financial crisis. Today, only the most enterprising of firms enjoy financial stability, with the principle differentiator between success and failure being an understanding of risk and the ways in which it should be managed.

“I think that the business – if you will – of financial services is in itself risk taking, so risk management is naturally very important,” says Kalle Saariaho, Head of Risk Management at Pohjola Asset Management. “The failures we saw during the financial crisis, they were not all necessarily failures of risk management, but of the trust between company and customers.”

Public confidence in financial services is low, and many demand that more must be done to rekindle the love lost between customer and company if firms are to instil any meaningful sense of trust. “That loss of trust was linked to customers not really knowing the exposure of firms to risk, as well as not trusting that the firms themselves knew their exposure,” says Saariaho. “I really think good risk management should help in both decision-making at the firms and also in building trust towards those firms.”

Jumping through hoops
What’s more, the financial landscape has taken an extraordinary turn for the worse, and today firms must jump through more hoops than in pre-crisis times if they are to negotiate all manner of complex instruments and regulatory challenges. Change has been constant, and demand unerring, as the prospect of profitability is no longer the near guarantee it once was and short-termism a sure-fire route to failure.

The circumstances have called for more adaptive approaches from asset managers, and firms diversify their dealings beyond what they once did. “I think that the situation with regard to risk-taking is actually quite similar to that of pre-crisis, in that many investors are forced to chase risk, given that traditional portfolios really aren’t providing enough returns to fulfil their returns objectives,” says Saariaho. “I think when risk premiums go down, there’s a tendency to add risk, but now we at least hope that risks are better understood and managed.”

€39.2bn

Pohjola assets under management, Q1 2014

19%

Market share of OP-Pohjola Group’s funds, Q1 2014

The loss of trust that has come through irresponsible risk-taking has, if nothing else, served as a lesson in how best to analyse and manage risk. Nowhere else can this better be seen than at Pohjola Asset Management, where risk management is integral to all the company’s operations.

As part of the Finnish financial services group of the same name, Pohjola Asset Management offers both discretionary and advisory investment management services for institutional and private clients. As a well-respected asset manager for Finnish institutions and wealthy private individuals, the firm’s portfolio management services span European fixed income investments, Finnish, Pan European and Eastern European equities, hedge fund of funds, absolute return strategies and real estate investments.

Moreover, Pohjola’s portfolio management team of 36 is the nation’s largest and, together with open architecture of currently 37 international partners, it has posted impressive returns year-on-year. In addition, Pohjola’s 85 asset management experts oversee client assets worth approximately €39.2bn and, owing to thorough analysis, teamwork and management expertise, the company currently stands as the regional benchmark in how best to conduct the business of asset management.

Exposure to risk
The firm has seen risk reporting change drastically over the years. At present, financial institutions must take pains not only to accept, but to cater for, their exposure to risk. “I think first of all, lately there has been much more emphasis on stress testing, not just on the historical stresses, but in really understanding how large movements in market risk factor into a portfolio,” says Saariaho.

In addition to regulatory and technical changes, the perception of risk on the client side has changed drastically. Customers today are far more unwilling than they were to leave their assets in another’s hands without first knowing in detail their exposure to risk. “Clients ask for much more information on risk, so besides the total risk number, these days they expect risk contributions, and relative risks, they really want to understand where risk is taken,” says Saariaho. “Clients, increasingly, are interested in where their asset manager tackles risk. There too – I think – is one of the key elements in building that trust between manager and client.”

Therefore, more must be done to reassure clients about the integrity of financial firms, whether it be through consistent returns or by addressing the concerns of clients on an individual basis – as is very much the case with Pohjola. “I would say that better transparency is one important way to build trust between parties,” says Saariaho, “and trust in this business is very important.”

As with the wider financial services industry, transparency is arguably the single-most important factor on which a sound reputation rests, and it is for this reason that Pohjola makes clear its clients’ exposure to risk on a regular basis and in a clear and concise way.

Building a replicating portfolio
With regards to the specific mechanisms by which risk is identified and assessed, Pohjola employs a number of methods that take into account today’s turbulent markets and ongoing regulatory upheaval. “First of all, we really focus on market risks on the liability side,” says Saariaho. “Usually the client is able to provide expected cash flows, but there may be some optionalities embedded in the liabilities, which are quite difficult to model and may then result in the need for simulations.

“Once you get down to the cash flows, then basically the next step is forming a replicating portfolio, so it in effect is driving these risks within the liabilities using instruments like bonds and options. This replicating portfolio can then be fed into a market risk model, together with assets, for further analysis.”

With respect to specific risk metrics, Pohjola uses both value-at-risk and expected shortfall when it comes to identifying and describing portfolio risk. In addition, a comprehensive suite of stress tests is used to describe portfolio exposure to specific movements in market risk factors. The firm’s risk numbers are always based on a very thorough mapping of investments to their underlying risk factors, including look-through on mutual funds, index futures and benchmark indices, and it is this high precision approach to risk management that distinguishes the firm’s services from those of close competitors.

Working with regulation
Those working in the asset management space have found themselves forced to contend with seemingly endless regulatory demands, and while some believe regulatory upheaval is inhibiting the industry’s innovative streak, others see the process as part and parcel of appeasing clients. Unsurprisingly, those in the latter group have negotiated the regulatory mire with a far greater degree of success than those in the former category and are today able to cater for a much-changed client market.

One of the biggest regulatory changes of late is Solvency II, which in essence entails a fundamental review of the capital adequacy regime and ultimately seeks to establish a revised set of EU-wide capital requirements and risk management standards. “We’ve been working on Solvency II for a number of years now,” says Saariaho. “I think managing the interest rate risk in liabilities has really increased the use of derivatives. Also, developing portfolios, which are efficient from the regulatory capital viewpoint, has been and will be important in the future as the regulations start to take effect.”

However, the Solvency II directive represents a very small part of the wider regulatory landscape, and serves as an indication of the various ways in which asset managers are required to adjust their operations accordingly. Whether it be the Dodd-Frank Act, or the EU Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive, a new and complex web of regulations is ramping up scrutiny and enforcement on all fronts, leading firms like Pohjola to review their compliance programmes.

As far as creating value and improving organisational dynamics is concerned, risk management is absolutely essential if financial firms are to adequately cater for an ever-changing market and consumer. And although the business of asset management is arguably more complex now than what it was a few years ago, the prospects of those able to endure the transformation are all the better for it. While it’s true that an increased emphasis on risk is closely in keeping with transparency and trust, it’s also responsible for a far more diverse approach to asset management.

Crucially, a sharpened focus on risk management has led many in the business to adopt a far more adaptable approach, and freed companies and clients alike from the consequences that come with irresponsible risk taking.

‘The rise of emerging markets is real’, says London School of Economics professor

Growth in emerging markets has been key to driving living standards in these regions of the world. But a 2014 OECD report suggests the pace of growth has slowed down: a worrying trend for achieving average income levels in these countries by 2050. World Finance speaks to Professor Danny Quah, Professor of Economics and International Development at the London School of Economics, to hear his views on the future of emerging markets.

World Finance: Professor Quah, according to this report China is of course an economic front-runner compared with the other BRICs countries, but in order for China to achieve the 2050 projections that have been laid out, don’t you think that it has to look into its own backyard and consider more seriously what it’s going to do in terms of domestic exports?

Danny Quah: They’re hazards. They’re hazards ahead. China as you say is an economy that’s very heavily trade-dependent, and when you’re trade-dependent in that way, what matters in the world matters to your economy. You can’t just keep growing in a way that’s decoupled from the rest of the world.

But I think China itself has always viewed the reliance on trade as being a device that gives it enough room to develop its own internal consumption capacity. And I think we’re beginning to see evidence on that. That China will have this internal, own domestic engine of growth.

You can’t just keep growing in a way that’s decoupled from the rest of the world

World Finance: But we also know that China has brokered some one-sided deals; whether that be in Asia or Africa. So what does that then do when you’ve got these agreements that don’t necessarily benefit social welfare long-term? I mean, are we looking at short-termism?

Danny Quah: There is a tendency to give the impression that it’s just looking out for itself in a way that screws over the counter-party. That messes them up.

It does not actively seek to do that. It’s not in the role of trying to do down other countries so that it is the leading power.

What it really wants to do is engage in trade, and engage in exchange. And what that means is that if you’re a country that has natural resources, and your government, your civil society, your public infrastructure is not up to exploiting these natural resources in a way that exports to China, what China will do is it will come in and offer to build the bridges and the railroads and the roads that are needed.

Now some of those bridges and roads that it builds might not last the duration. They might last six months, a year or so? They’re something that’s just fit for that purpose. And that does give the impression that it’s after one-sided advantage.

It’s difficult to interpret what they want to do in an alternative way, which is that they’re single-minded in pursuing economic prosperity.

World Finance: But then, going back to my original question about short-termism, does the burden then lie with governments to restrain how much access, and the sort of deals that are taking place? If we not only want to see China develop but other emerging markets too?

Danny Quah: Absolutely, I think all of these other economies that are dealing with China need to build their political systems, need to build their civil society, so that the growth that they get to experience is not short-lived, does not have its benefits accrued to just a narrow elite.

But China’s own view on this is that’s a problem that you the counter-party need to fix. And they’re right.

It’s not our job to tell other countries how to run their systems. They need to do that.

World Finance: Do you think that it’s unfair Professor Quah, this prevailing attitude that China is somehow engaging in industrial espionage? If you want to call it that.

It’s not our job to tell other countries how to run their systems

Danny Quah: It’s fair in the sense that there is almost surely a lot of what in the western system we would understand to be theft of intellectual property rights.

We should also note however that, you know, most recently China has imprisoned the perpetrators of 40 infringers of copyright law. So it is doing its best on preserving an intellectual property rights system.

Economists are actually divided on this, because intellectual property rights – yes, they encourage investment in research and development, they encourage innovation – but at the same time they are a restriction on trade. And any economist who believes that free markets are a good thing, in some ways has got to be against strong intellectual property rights systems.

So there’s a theoretical ambiguity in how we assess China in this.

Then the final point to make is that pretty much every country that has grown to be a successful country has engaged in some form of theft of intellectual property rights.
100-150 years ago, the worst violator in the world was the US! Before that, Germany and the United Kingdom were involved in theft of intellectual property on behalf of their own industrialists against the other side!

World Finance: Why don’t we spread the analysis across some of the other BRICs nations, and we look at free trade agreements. If we are to see the other BRICs players meet those 2050 targets, for instance: are we going to have to see more entrenchment in terms of agreements taking place with regional players?

Danny Quah: Yeah, this is a very tricky point that you make. On trade agreements within the BRICs, and from the BRICs against the rest of the world.

And you and I know that in the last 10-15 years since the development of this acronym, it’s actually China that’s been pushing the frontier on economic development for the BRICs.

So right now this concept might be seeing a little bit of tension from the deep diversity across them.

Some of the membership of the BRICs are manufacturing intensive, export-oriented. They deal a lot with trade, they want the greater degree of trade liberalisation. Some other parts of the BRICs are much more focused on developing natural resources, exploiting natural resources. Until very recently, a number of them were actually quite closed, and very much into developing their own industry, rather than looking out at the rest of the world.

So how this unfolds is going to be really interesting. And it might be that in a year or two we will realise that the BRIC age has seen its time. That we need to move on to a different kind of grouping.

World Finance: I just wanted to touch on that. Do you think that the premise of any report nowadays, being a comparative analysis of BRICs nations. Is it even a fair assessment, given how far China has come? Leaps and bounds ahead of the other nations?

Danny Quah: That’s a really good point, should we be thinking about the world of emerging markets and advanced economies in terms of these standard categories? We take the advanced economies and put them to one side. We take emerging markets and put them to one side. Then we pull a bunch of them out and call them the BRICs economies?

Perhaps it’s better to think about the world as being seamless. That there’s simply a range of gradations.

And any economist who believes that free markets are a good thing, in some ways has got to be against strong intellectual property rights systems

As we look around the world, different economies will be doing things differently. And there’s a lot to be said for a view of the world that even looking at countries might be the wrong category.

When we think about global value chains: our iPhones are designed in California, but they’re put together in China. And along the way they’ve picked up components from Kentucky, chips from Germany, technology from England, programming from Israel…

The end result is a world product. And it’s really corporations, with their global value chains, moving value across national boundaries, that we need to be focusing on. And thinking about development as simply what happens to specific nation-states might be the wrong vision.

But having said that of course, nation-states still do undertake trade policy, tariff policy, monetary policy. They have their nation’s population to look out for. So it’s a complicated world that we’re moving into, and this juncture between what happens in economic value, and what happens to the wellbeing of people is going to be something that we need to pay a great deal of attention to.

At the same time that we realise the rise of emerging markets is real. The rise of the east is real. The world’s centre of gravity has shifted to the far east. And that will happen regardless of whether we think about the world in terms of these value chains, or in terms of these nation-states. And I think it is that that we really need to be looking ahead on.

World Finance: A sobering final thought, thank you so much Professor Quah.

Danny Quah: Thank you very much.

Bonus clip 1: Will China grow old before it becomes rich?

Bonus clip 2: Are India and Brazil the BRICs outliers?

The Democratic Republic of Congo sheds past to fulfil economic potential

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where violence and corruption once reigned supreme, is in the midst of a renaissance: a transformation from war-torn battleground to thriving epicentre of commerce and democracy.

For too long now, the DRC’s growth has been crippled by civil unrest – oftentimes inflicted by neighbouring nations. However, there now exists a greater willingness for change, as political and business leaders endeavour to rehabilitate the nation, restore its economy and strengthen its core foundations for generations to come.

Today, under the stewardship of President Joseph Kabila and Prime Minister Matata Ponyo Mapon, the transformation of one of Africa’s largest and most populous nations, while nascent, is beginning to take shape.

It is in the capital, Kinshasa, with its nearly 10 million inhabitants, that the country’s economic growth and rehabilitation can best be seen. Impressive buildings are well into their construction phases, skyscrapers are beginning to take shape, and freshly paved highways are lining the city. This is not to say that the change has been limited to the capital, though; the agricultural sector continues to gain in stature and natural resources drive the economy onwards and upwards.

A national plan
President Joseph Kabila, who was initially elected in 2006 and again in 2011, began his leadership of the DRC following the assassination of his father, then-president Laurent Désiré-Kabila, in 2001. Kabila junior saw the need to introduce far-reaching reforms to unite the country after his father’s death and a prolonged period of civil strife, and he and his entrusted advisors looked to rebuild the fabric of the nation and create a framework to better facilitate economic growth.

It is in the capital, Kinshasa, with its nearly 10 million inhabitants, that the country’s economic growth and rehabilitation can best be seen

It was under this framework, entitled Les Cinq Chantiers de la RDC (the Five Pillars of Democratic Republic of Congo), that Kabila developed a long-term plan to improve domestic welfare, supplement the country’s trade policy with foreign governments, and boost domestic investments. Today, as ever, he strives to create a better nation through improved infrastructure, education, higher employment and housing for all, ultimately distancing the population from the country’s long history of socioeconomic turmoil.

Endowed with one of the most promising agricultural sectors in Africa and over $24trn worth of mineral wealth – including copper, diamonds, coltan and oil – the DRC is now at the forefront of exploration, research and trading in Africa. What’s more, the myriad opportunities in the country have inspired the DRC’s political and business leaders to set their sights on securing its reputation as a new African superpower, and to signal to the world that the country has the capacity to sustainably develop and create an environment for growth in Central Africa.

A healthier nation
Improving the nation’s healthcare infrastructure ranks among President Kabila’s topmost priorities, and while South Africa and Dubai have long been traditional healthcare destinations for Africans, the DRC is quickly making a name for itself as a suitable alternative by offering world-class facilities and physicians.

One example of progress in the healthcare space is the opening of the Hopital du Cinquantenaire in Kinshasa, which President Kabila and Minister of Public Health Felix Kabange Numbi inaugurated in March 2014. Funded through a joint venture with Sinohydro, a large Chinese engineering firm, Jubilee is a 500-bed hospital that brings world-class medicine back to the DRC. The hospital will be operated by the Padiyath group, which manages hospitals throughout India and the Middle East.

The Ministry of Public Health is working towards a countrywide healthcare pricing structure that will allow easy access to affordable healthcare for Congolese citizens at this and other planned world-class hospitals currently under development.

The focus on healthcare is significant for the country because it has previously been unable to carry macroeconomic gains into aspects of human development. Regardless of its rich resource base, the DRC is still one of the poorest nations worldwide, and will continue to be so for as long as economic gains fail to reach the entirety of its population. Therefore, the decision to focus on matters such as healthcare signal the beginning of a new era for the country, in which wide-reaching reforms look to benefit all and rid the country of the social injustices that have too often muddied its past.

Also integral to the success of the president’s reform programme are public-private partnerships (PPPs), of which the Hopital du Cinquantenaire is an example. Kabila has sought to build infrastructure and help build businesses through PPPs, which not only efficiently deploy capital, but also create demonstrable changes for the Congolese people.

The country’s decision to enact a new law on February 11 was specifically aimed at PPPs, but was more broadly designed to create an efficient business environment for interested parties and a method by which the legitimacy of PPP projects could be determined. The law dictates the eligibility and content of any public-private contracts, and goes some way to protecting the country against any losses incurred from illegalities.

Another hallmark of President Kabila’s tenure has been creating a far more hospitable business climate. Owing to recent government reforms, business opportunities are growing exponentially, as a greater number of multinationals come to see greater potential in the DRC. Today, investors can take advantage of the nation’s mineral wealth, agricultural opportunities and growing middle class, in addition to a decrease in bureaucracy and light-touch government regulation.

While the DRC has for some time now occupied a lowly position on the World Bank’s Doing Business report, anti-corruption drives of various sorts and a focus on good governance and transparency mean that the country’s prospects are on the up.

According to Steve Dunmead, Vice President and General Manager of OM Group, an American cobalt refining firm, “The business climate in the Democratic Republic of Congo has improved significantly over the past 10 years since President Kabila came to office. He has done a good job, but there is still much to do.”

Multifaceted growth
The country’s economic platform is well founded, with the rate of growth showing no sign of slowing any time soon. In 2013, the nation’s GDP grew by 8.3 percent, according to the IMF and government sources, and growth in 2014 is expected to reach double digits. Although investment, agricultural productivity and infrastructural development have all played a part in boosting the country’s GDP, improved policy and budget planning are only now beginning to bolster its structural deficiencies as well.

Prudent monetary policies have not only encouraged this growth, but have kept inflation at its lowest rate since the nation first gained independence over half a century ago. Whereas in years past, the country has fallen far short of its economic potential, recent reforms and an improved business climate have been crucial in fending off corruption and in instilling a greater measure of stability.

Prime Minister Ponyo believes the country is on the rise. “Our economic performance is the strongest since the 1960s. We have an inflation rate from January to the present of just 0.3 percent. We will register 8.2 percent real GDP growth this year. That makes us number five on the continent in GDP growth. This country is on the move.”

Democratic Republic of Congo Prime Minister Matata Ponyo (l) meeting with Oman Foreign Affairs Minister Yusuf Bin Alawi Abdullah
Democratic Republic of Congo Prime Minister Matata Ponyo (l) meeting with Oman Foreign Affairs Minister Yusuf Bin Alawi Abdullah

In addition to the impressive growth figures, a host of other macroeconomic indicators show encouraging signs of progress. The nation’s currency, the Congolese franc, has remained stable; national wealth has doubled due to more efficient tax collection; and perhaps most importantly, public and private investment has increased significantly.

A former minister of finance, Ponyo has become popular, both in his country and internationally, as a technocrat with the ability and passion to bring about positive change to the Central African nation. Ponyo, a firm believer in stability and the private sector as the key to growth, has worked tirelessly throughout his career to encourage free enterprise in the DRC and Africa as a whole. During his time with the ministry, Ponyo helped change the investment climate of the nation and even set about enacting new measures to protect shareholders and boost capital flow to the country.

Making good on potential
Although the turmoil of the past two decades has put a lid on the country’s economic output, this is not to say that its resource and agricultural potential are any less. Inflows have skyrocketed in the last decade and come to constitute a considerable chunk of the country’s growth, with foreign direct investment having risen from -$116m in 2006 to $3.3bn in 2013.

In 2013 alone, the country’s copper output rose by 52 percent on the year previous, irrespective of any ongoing issues with regard to inadequate power supply and infrastructure. The DRC’s mining sector potential today is far and above most nations, and, if managed correctly, could boost the country’s fortunes and geopolitical clout far and above what they are at present.

One key development in the mining space has been a greater focus on transparency. Whereas the country has for some time enjoyed a great deal of mineral wealth, much of it has failed to translate into material gains for the population, with corruption and mismanagement having starved the nation of the gains it so deserved. Fast-forward to today and a steady stream of government initiatives, as well as increased cooperation with international parties, has resulted in a vast improvement in accountability and openness in all corners of the industry.

The Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) has seen the country’s mining sector take on a far more compliant shape. And although the EITI suspended the DRC’s membership only last year for failing to “meet all requirements,” the country was more recently lauded by the Oslo-based initiative for “dedicated efforts in a challenging environment.”

The nation’s willingness to subject its mining revenues and spending to sharpened public scrutiny again illustrates the lengths to which the country as a whole is willing to go in order to cement a more responsible reputation among the international community. Given that the DRC is endowed with tremendous natural resources, Prime Minister Ponyo sees the need, and opportunity, to diversify the nation’s economy away from commodities towards services and agriculture.

“While the country is very wealthy in natural endowments regarding mineral resources, it is imperative to diversify beyond this wealth alone to propel the Democratic Republic of Congo to a state that can compete economically at a global scale,” says Ponyo.

In addition to mining, the DRC is looking to further develop its agricultural sector, considering it is one that is unrivalled in all of Africa. Given the potential for water, land, energy and various other inputs, the nation can develop an industry of commercial farms offering fishing, livestock and vegetable production, connected to a coherent network of production and food distribution channels.

The approach will enable the country to take advantage of the entire supply chain of food production, from farm inputs to the development of effective irrigation, distribution and transportation systems. According to Prime Minister Ponyo, “Agriculture must be one of the main sectors of focus used to spearhead the Congolese economy to unprecedented levels.”

Investment in agricultural extension services, research, energy, science and technology is also vital to developing a world-class agricultural sector. Significant attention to those sectors will create an opportunity not only to drive the economy by fortifying the export market, but also to help in the fight against hunger and malnutrition throughout the DRC and the African continent as a whole.

The current plans for the agricultural sector fall within the framework of the national strategy for food security. Encouraging public-private partnerships to harness these large-scale investments, Ponyo encourages investors to consider the potential value of the industry. To support agriculture and encourage private-sector participation, Ponyo developed and launched a nationwide programme known as the National Agricultural Investment Plan (NIPA). In short, the NIPA’s main objectives are to ensure food security and to develop the agribusiness sector. Its first project will be the development of 16 large agro-parks.

Democratic Republic of Conogo Prime Minister Matata Ponyo (centre left) with President Joseph Kabila (centre right)
Democratic Republic of Conogo Prime Minister Matata Ponyo (centre left) with President Joseph Kabila (centre right)

According to Councillor John Mususa, one of the leaders spearheading the project, “These parks will serve as an important part of the country’s rehabilitation and construction process by providing access to agricultural inputs and by combining laboratories, training facilities, storage centres and health facilities.”

Ponyo believes developing the agriculture sector can have the most significant positive impact on the population. For example, if the sector grows by six percent over the next decade, the level of Congolese poverty will be halved. Many of the issues plaguing the nation today can be resolved through investment, organisation and proper management. The creation of food security, paired with an increase in employment and social welfare, will help the country continue on its path to prosperity.

Power sector as growth catalyst
Apart from agriculture, a robust energy sector is also key to driving economic growth in the DRC, especially as its large-scale industrial sectors remain an area of significant growth. In a continent plagued by underdeveloped power generation capabilities and transmission facilities to transport power over large distances, the need for development in this sector cannot be understated. Nonetheless, the nation’s power sector is beginning to see significant investment and development from indigenous firms in addition to international companies and governments.

Large-scale investments in the Inga Dams, for example, are seen as a key component of the Congo’s – and Africa’s – future. Comprising a series of hydroelectric dams, the Inga Dams hold the potential to not only provide electricity to the DRC and all of Africa, but also the capacity to export energy to Western Europe. The centrepiece of the Inga Dams, the Grand Inga Dam, is the world’s largest hydropower project and is an instrumental factor in Africa’s future energy strategy.

The country’s electrification percentage rate is still far short of double figures, and many businesses to this day cite lack of energy supply as the number one obstacle to progress. The issue is especially pertinent in rural communities, where electrification rates stand at one percent and act as a major contributor to the country’s enduring issue of poverty. The Inga Dams will help to rid the country of one of its biggest issues and hopefully set the country on the path to self-sufficiency.

In 2013, the site of the Inga Dams was visited by Dr Rajiv Shah, the head of the US Agency for International Development (USAID), who not only lauded the progress of the facilities, but also pledged aid from the US Government to further develop the project.

Harbouring the potential to generate some 38,000 MW of energy at a cost of $80bn, the immediate effects of the dam would help power South Africa, Botswana, Angola, and Namibia in the short term. The capacity of the power production would also tower over the current record holders – the Three Gorges Dam in China and the Itaipu Dam in Brazil.

Additionally, the Inga Dams are vital not only for providing energy to the soon-to-be one billion inhabitants of Africa, but also for the industries that will drive African nations into self-sustaining superpowers. By allowing access to readily available and cost-effective energy – a gap that exists today – manufacturing, agricultural and mining industries will be able to reach new heights. Likewise, the powerful Congo River, a celebrated natural resource of the country, has the potential to power African nations and feed the continent.

Growth in the DRC is real, although the abundant opportunities in the country have yet to be fully uncovered. The country has posted impressive GDP growth for close to a decade now; however, it is only with the introduction of recent reform programmes that the DRC’s potential has expanded to all corners of the country, and to the international stage.

The changes in the DRC are indicative of a total transformation from a war-torn nation to an emerging African superpower. Under the leadership of President Kabila and Prime Minister Ponyo, the nation is in the early stages of a renaissance that will set the standard throughout Africa and the developing world as a whole.

India’s budget gets mixed reviews, Indonesia surges post-election

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s new government has unveiled a budget it said would revive growth after the country has endured the longest economic slowdown in 25 years.

Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said he would raise caps on foreign investment in the defence and insurance sectors, maintain a low budget deficit, and launch tax reforms to unify India’s 29 federal states into a common market.

Two years of economic growth below five percent has exasperated investors and India’s 1.2 billion population as it dropped from 10.3 percent in 2010 to 4.4 percent in 2013. By boosting FDI limits in defence and insurance ventures to 49 percent from 26 percent, and getting planned infrastructure spending back on track, Jaitley vowed that Asia’s third largest economy would expand at an annual rate of 7-8 percent within three to four years.

This commitment to fiscal discipline was stronger than analysts had expected

Modi won a landslide general election victory in May with a pledge to create jobs for the one million people who enter India’s workforce every month. He has since warned that “bitter medicine” is needed reverse high inflation and the worst slowdown since free-market reforms in the early 1990s unleashed an era of rapid growth.

Fiscally tough budget
Surprisingly, Jaitley vowed to adhere to the daunting budget deficit target – of 4.1 percent of gross domestic product for the fiscal year ending March 2015 – that the government inherited from its predecessor.

“I have decided to accept this challenge. We cannot leave behind a legacy of debt for our future generations,” Jaitley said, adding that the budget deficit would be reduced to 3.6 percent in the following two fiscal years, according to Bloomberg.

This commitment to fiscal discipline was stronger than analysts had expected with the deficit already approaching half of the annual target just three months into the fiscal year. Nevertheless, Jaitley maintained that “fiscal prudence is of paramount importance”.

Prior to the announcement, sources had revealed that the budget would also look to impose a national Goods and Services Tax, ensuring a more fair distribution of revenue between the country’s states. Jaitley also announced a review into retrospective tax claims blamed for hindering foreign investment after companies such as UK’s Vodafone were hit with massive demands.

However, the budget was not enough to reassure investors as the Indian stock market retreated for the third day running following the budget announcement, leading to the biggest loss in nine months. Without any major reforms or measures to deal with the immediate issues, investors are selling out. A key concern is that oil and food prices will rise following the budget deficit target, but more importantly, because a weak monsoon this year threatens India’s food production and a continued dependency on energy imports is sending oil and gas prices through the roof.

Nevertheless, Jaitley maintained that India has adequate food stocks to cope with a drop in output and vowed to keep an eye on price stabilisation for the timebeing.

Indonesia rallies post-election
In related news, Indonesian stocks jumped more than two percent to one-year highs, as investors bet on an election win by Jakarta Governor Joko Widodo or Jokowi as he’s commonly called.

Both Jokowi and ex-general Prabowo Subianto have declared themselves the winner after elections on Wednesday revealed contradictory preliminary results in what would seem to be the closest election ever in Indonesia.

Official results won’t be announced for another couple of weeks and in the meantime, investors are hoping that Jokowi will take the lead of the MINT economy soon enough, as he’s for reforms and greater transparency, while Prabowo has a more protectionist agenda.

Faith in Jokowi’s win also sent the rupiah flying and further boosted the Indonesian markets which have had a stellar year, surging 20 percent so far. Despite this, the election is key because it comes at a time when economic growth has dropped to its lowest level in over four years and it will fall on the new Indonesian president to ensure that the Asian MINT doesn’t lose its lustre.