US Senate to consider contentious trade agreement

The TPP will be one of the largest trade agreements in history, covering 40 percent of global GDP and encompassing potentially 11 other countries. The other nations proposed for inclusion are Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam.

There have been some efforts from within President Obama’s own party to derail the initiative

The bill will need 60 votes of approval in the Senate and 218 in the House of Representatives to pass. There have been some efforts from within President Obama’s own party to derail the initiative, with Democratic Senator Bob Menendez attempting to add a provision which would block any trade agreements with countries that the State Department’s Human Trafficking Report has classified as Tier 3, of which potential TPP partner Malaysia is classified.

In a boost to Obama’s efforts, footwear manufacturer Nike has said, reports the Financial Times, that it will expand “advanced footwear manufacturing” in the US, creating 10,000 jobs, if Congress gives the president the authority to fast track negotiations with other TPP partners.

For TPP to go ahead, Japan’s dairy and rice protectionist policies must be addressed, as well as Canada’s protection of its dairy industry. There have also been concerns over human rights in Mexico and Malaysia.

According to Obama, the US must take the initiative in creating this free trade agreement. “We have to make sure America writes the rules of the global economy and we should do it today while our economy is in a position of global strength,” the FT reports Obama saying. “If we don’t write the rules for trade around the world, guess what, China will. And they’ll write those rules in a way that gives Chinese workers and Chinese businesses the upper hand.”

Start-ups fail to help women start up

In February, 800 female entrepreneurs gathered at the Female Founders conference hosted by Y Combinator. That’s certainly a promising sign, but the very existence of a separate entity dedicated to women is a stark reminder that men remain the overwhelming majority in the start-up scene.

The numbers speak for themselves; just 1.3 percent of privately held startups had a female founder in 2012, according to the Women at the Wheel: Do Female Executives Drive Start-Up Success? Dow Jones report. And out of 395 early-stage start-ups surveyed, 83 percent had no females on board.

The report found that the more developed the start-ups were, the higher the likelihood they had women on board – suggesting companies tend to add female executives as they go. But adding a plaster to patch up a wound doesn’t deal with the problem itself. To establish real, rooted gender parity, it must be there from the beginning. Quotas and other attempts at creating equality do little more than give the appearance of it.

Stereotypes and brogrammers
Perhaps the most notable factor holding women back from entrepreneurship is the fact the tech sphere – the area offering the most opportunity for start-up creation and growth – is still so glaringly male-dominated; according to a report by the data centre Telecity Group, only nine percent of chief information officers in the US were female in 2012. And according to Venture Lab, female tech start-up CEOs are outnumbered 20 to one.

17%

of computer science graduates in the US are female

That fuels the misguided perception of the tech world as first-and-foremost the province of men, forming a vicious circle that’s tough to break. Patricia Greene, Professor of Entrepreneurship at Babson College, agrees. “The culture and role models [in the tech sphere] are highly male based”, she says.

That’s ironic given that women, at least in the US, use social media sites more than men. According to Pew Internet, they dominate the user-base of big sites like Facebook, Twitter, Zynga and Pinterest – but they don’t found them. All four, like most of the other success stories – Snapchat, Instagram, WhatsApp, Tumblr and Spotify to name but a few – were created by men. Given the importance of social factors in influencing career choices, perceptions of the tech world need to change if more women are to enter it.

Cults like ‘brogramming’ don’t help; the concept, intended to give programming a cooler image by associating it with ‘bros’ and frat boys, is fuelling an already prevalent perception of coding as largely male-oriented. That hasn’t always been the case; according to historian Nathan Ensmenger, up until the 1960s programming was largely seen as ‘women’s work’. Now only 17 percent of computer science graduates in the US are women, according to Fast Company.

Encouraging more women to delve into tech at the education stage is of course central to achieving greater representation in the wider field. According to Greene, fewer females than males study in tech “because young women don’t see themselves spending their days the way they imagine they would if they were to work in tech companies”. A study by Penn Schoen and Berland (PSB) found that two thirds of teenagers had never thought about engineering as a career – and 74 percent of those that did had made the decision after learning about its economic benefits and how they could influence the world.

That suggests the importance of eschewing stereotypes and helping all young people understand the importance of tech skills, as Lydia Thomas, former CEO of Noblis and Co-Chair of the National Academy of Sciences, argues. “We have to capture women at a very young age”, she said in a Forbes report. “Women are not getting the emphasis in school. We need to encourage parents to encourage their daughters.”

Obstacles inside and out
It’s not just an apparent lack of interest in tech that’s holding some women back from launching successful start-ups. A Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) survey found that women were more likely to doubt their ability to start a business than men (especially in developed Asian economies such as Japan, where just five percent believed themselves capable). Women were also more likely to be held back by fear of failure, according to the report.

Dr Luz Cristal Glangchai, founder and CEO of VentureLab, which teaches entrepreneurship to young people, tells World Finance that confidence can be an issue. “As a college professor, I remember trying to encourage young women to go into technology and entrepreneurship”, she says. “But the girls in my classes felt intimidated. They would look to male classmates for answers even when their own experiences were superior.”

Glangchai believes this is rooted in early childhood experiences, and that role models can help combat the apparent trend. “We have noticed that many successful women CEOs and leaders in technology have all had some sort of ‘spark’ or mentor which gave them the confidence to believe they could accomplish anything”, she says. The GEM study suggests a similar concept; in Sub-Saharan Africa, four out of five women surveyed believed they had the skills to launch an enterprise – and half knew other female entrepreneurs.

But, as the GEM report recognises, even when it’s not a question of will, confidence or other inner hindrances, external barriers can block women entrepreneurs from attaining the same level of success as their male counterparts. Among the more subtle obstacles is the issue of funding; studies have shown female founders have a harder time getting venture capital (VC) backing than men, and it’s little surprise given the stark gender imbalance among VCs; in the US, women accounted for less than 10 percent of high-level VCs in 2012, according to the Kaufman Foundation.

That’s an unfortunate truth given that networks are of the utmost importance in obtaining funding and so achieving growth, at least according to Greene. “For [start-up growth], the factors are generally seen as money and network, with network actually being one of the major blockades for raising capital”, she says, adding that this is even more true for tech companies. “Tech businesses most likely need equity capital as opposed from other sources, and that’s where the network really comes into play.” While men continue to rule over the VC sphere, then, it seems they’ll simultaneously continue to dominate the entrepreneurial one.

As a female entrepreneur, Glangchai has said in the past that she experienced first-hand the prejudices that can greet female entrepreneurs in the science and tech sphere when she pitched the idea for her first company, NanoTaxi. “There were no women to pitch to… I tried not to show my femininity”, she told Women & Tech Project. “So I didn’t feel like I had to be more aggressive, but I did feel like I had to dress more like a man.”

Glangchai added that women in her field often have fewer opportunities to progress than men, not least because their ideas are sometimes shunned in preference for male-voiced ones. “There is some sort of weird, subconscious thing where the guys in the room, they don’t kind of notice you’re there”, she said. According to her, such discrimination can drive women out of tech and leadership positions.

Overhauling the model
It seems that in order to destroy these apparent prejudices, we need to go back to the beginning and challenge male-oriented business models. One way of doing that is by providing female entrepreneurs with greater access to resources – something a number of programmes (such as Astia, which has over 5,000 investors on board) are already helping to do. That marks a useful start in questioning the existing models, but there’s still a long way to go before they’re completely overhauled.

The efforts are clearly having some impact; the number of women in VC-backed companies is on the increase, and the likes of Hopscotch – a female-founded start-up that teaches children how to code – provide positive examples for others to follow. But such examples remain exceptions to the rule.

It’s evident that both men and women would benefit from having more women involved in the tech start-up scene; according to the Dow Jones report, venture-backed tech firms with a higher number of women executives have a higher chance of succeeding. For start-ups with five or more women on board, 61 percent succeeded. Given that some estimates put the average rate for Silicon Valley start-ups at just 10 percent, that’s significant.

It suggests that if the obstacles – whether interior barriers or exterior, cultural factors – can be overcome and the existing models upturned, a far higher number of female-founded start-ups could enjoy the types of colossal growth achieved by the likes of Facebook, Instagram, Spotify and fellow giants.

But those obstacles are ample, and more needs to be done to help knock them down and build new models that see real gender equality established from the start. Only then can men and women be seen as individuals in their own right rather than polarised, binary categories, and the future business world be characterised by true parity, from the roots up.

South Africa’s retirement industry strengthens

Despite its growth in recent years, South Africa’s retirement sector faces various challenges – both old and new. By understanding the changing culture of employment and financial discipline, industry leaders, such as Johannesburg-based Sentinel Retirement Fund, are responding to the growing need to educate citizens on the importance of saving, which is more vital than ever before. World Finance had the opportunity to speak with the CEO of Sentinel Retirement Fund, Eric Visser, to discuss the evolving retirement industry in South Africa and how private firms and the government are working together to overcome shortfalls in the sector.

The retirement industry in South Africa has thrived in recent years and is now worth an estimated ZAR 2.74trn ($231.92bn). Yet, there is still a great deal of the market that remains untapped as many citizens do not have access to retirement funds. According to the September 2014 quarterly employment statistics published by Statistics South Africa, of the 35.6 million citizens of working age, 4.9 million are unemployed and 15.4 million are either unavailable to work or not seeking employment. For those without a formal pension plan in place, the government’s social security system provides a State Old Age Grant from the age of 60 onwards; but at ZAR 1,350 ($115) per month, it scarcely covers basic living costs for the three million South Africans that rely solely on this income.

There are several processes that can rectify existing shortfalls, such as educating the population on financial discipline and the importance of saving from a young age

Job-hopping generation
“Towards the end of the 20th century, the majority of pension and provident funds in the private sector converted from Defined Benefit (DB), wherein compulsory annuitisation at retirement applies, to Defined Contribution (DC) arrangements, whereby employers in the private sector contribute to the pension funds of their employees”, says Visser. “Although many valid reasons supported this move, employment in the country has gradually changed from stable and lengthy careers at the same employer to ‘job hopping’. DB structures were seen as old fashioned and punitive to the new generation employees as they did not sufficiently promote portability of accumulated savings.”

Moreover, members of retirement funds are increasingly engaged in irresponsible financial behaviour, such as making premature withdrawals from their retirement savings and largely ignoring the preservation of capital. “Even at retirement, cash withdrawals are made and either squandered or inappropriately invested, rather than being annuitised to provide a life-long sustainable post retirement income”, says Visser. South Africa’s National Treasury (NT) initiated a retirement reform programme in 2012 in order to address such shortfalls in the current system. The process started well, with a number of proposals being legislated in 2014, but has since hit a roadblock as actual implementation has been postponed for at least one to two years.

Challenges and solutions
South Africa’s retirement industry soars ahead of its neighbours, which face even greater obstacles, such as underdeveloped financial markets, poor literacy levels, ineffective administration and low per capita income. Cumulatively, these factors have resulted in a large majority of citizens being forced to find alternative ways of saving for retirement. Furthermore, the growing trend of young Africans migrating in search of better living conditions has weakened traditional family social security structures, thereby impacting the socioeconomic conditions of the elderly – particularly those living in the rural areas.

That being said, most African countries have some form of official social security arrangement through which employed citizens are encouraged to save pro-actively and the elderly are supported. These systems have been largely inherited from colonial times or adapted from foreign designs, and as such do not meet the population’s requirements. Even in South Africa, where the retirement industry is relatively well-structured and operates effectively, citizens who have the opportunity to save often do not do so sufficiently for their retirement. “With this mindset, citizens impoverish themselves and place themselves in a position where they erode security in old age, undermine the alleviation of chronic poverty, and increase reliability on others”, says Visser.

A high level of unemployment is an ongoing issue for South Africa’s retirement industry (see Fig. 1), while the rising occurrence of shorter working careers presents a new challenge for the sector. Additionally, people nowadays have a greater inclination to access their pension funds when in-between jobs, which is part of a wider issue of the increasing ineptitude for personal financial discipline. Furthermore, as Visser explains, “Increased longevity places a strain on the sustainability of post-retirement income provision. The retirement savings horizon of South Africans are shortened, rather than extended, and remains around age 60.”

In order to combat such issues, the NT has proposed schemes aimed at improving the country’s culture of low savings, starting with the compulsory preservation of retirement savings – particularly in the early years of a pension plan. Better incentives for saving and compulsory annuitisation during retirement have also been earmarked as key areas. Moreover, the NT is trying to improve post-retirement income products and the fees charged in the industry. “The Social Security System is also part of this reform initiative, and to this end a compulsory contributory system is envisaged that will produce core benefits to all citizens”, says Visser.

At present, most retirees in South Africa are without the means to maintain their current lifestyle, which is largely attributed to intervals during the savings period or early withdrawals as a result of unemployment. The reluctance to annuitise at retirement and tendency to squander cash withdrawals or make bad investments are largely to blame for this growing dilemma. “Inappropriate retirement products are sold to retirees who do not have the means, knowledge or wisdom to manage these properly. In general, these products are also relatively expensive”, says Visser. While the only alternative, the state’s social security system, does not provide a sufficient safety net for individuals when they reach retirement age.

There are several processes that can rectify existing shortfalls, such as educating the population on financial discipline and the importance of saving from a young age. This can be achieved through traditional education settings or via online platforms. Additionally, advising those enrolled in retirement plans on important life changes and decision-making can be valuable in ensuring more effective saving in the long term. Aside from the changes that can be made on an individual level, amendments to South Africa’s legislative framework are also required, such as implementing some level of compulsory preservation and annuitisation. While on the part of retirement firms, providing appropriate and cost-effective products can cater for the changing needs of a wider spectrum of customers.

Unemployment in South Africa

An example of better educating individuals and offering client advice is now being implemented through Sentinel’s communication strategy, which includes personal interaction and one-to-one consultations with qualified financial advisors. The programme also gives members access to their personal information through a secured web interphase, thereby making the fund easier to use, while also acting as a platform for formal updates. By providing flexible and dynamic fund products, Sentinel allows its members to choose the most suited system to meet their individual needs, while also providing default systems that are preferable for those who prefer not to manage their own affairs. “This concept is further supported by Sentinel’s fund through a seamless and costless transition of a retiree from contributing member to pensioner”, says Visser.

In order to allow individuals to save sufficiently for their golden years, Sentinel aims at an investment strategy that can generate a post-retirement income replacement of at least 75 percent of one’s final salary. While for pensioners, the strategy is geared to maintain the purchasing power of pensions on a level of at least 80 percent of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). “Actual experience shows that a level in excess of 100 percent of CPI has been maintained and, in addition, annual bonuses of around 10 percent of annual pension have been awarded over the last 10 years to pensioners,” says Visser.

Social responsibility
Due to the nature of the industry, pension schemes are heavily regulated by government authorities, namely the Registrar of Pension Funds and South African Revenue Service. As such it is essential for firms to create a foundation of trust with authorities and the general population. Furthermore, as retirement funds help to stimulate the economy through investment and by establishing a means for citizens to become financially self-sufficient when they reach retirement, it is crucial for the industry to be sustainable in order to ensure its continuing viability.

As a means of supporting societal development, Sentinel has a social responsible investment policy that allocates capital to relevant investment opportunities. For example, its participation in an emerging black investment manager incubation programme is designed to give black investment managers the support and experience needed in order to gain exposure in the mainstream asset management industry. Furthermore, Visser explains, “Sentinel subscribes to the Code of Responsible Investment in South Africa and has incorporated economic, social and governance factors into its investment process.”

In 2013, Sentinel broadened its focus on corporate employers from the mining sector to include participation by all industries. Further plans for expanding its reach are on the horizon. “Sentinel is currently in the process of creating a provident fund that it envisages to run alongside the pension fund, with the view of attracting new participating employers. This extended platform will open the fund for participation to a far broader membership base, allowing more individuals the opportunity to maximise their retirement savings”, says Visser. Given the potential for South Africa’s retirement sector when various shortfalls are overcome through schemes that are employed by industry leaders and the government, further growth can be expected in the coming years.

Battling with the too-big-to-fail banks

Banking

Headlines about banks’ risks to the financial system continue to dominate the financial news. Bank of America performed poorly on the US Federal Reserve’s financial stress tests, and regulators criticised Goldman Sachs’ and JPMorgan Chase’s financing plans, leading both to lower their planned dividends and share buybacks. What was also of interest was Citibank’s hefty build up of its financial trading business that raises doubts about whether it is controlling risk properly.

These results suggest that some of the biggest banks remain at risk. And yet bankers are insisting that the post-crisis task of strengthening regulation and building a safer financial system has nearly been completed, with some citing recent studies of bank safety to support this argument. So which is it: are banks still at risk? Or has post-crisis regulatory reform done its job?

Bankers are insisting that the post-crisis task of strengthening regulation and building a safer financial system has nearly been completed

The 2008 financial crisis highlighted two dangerous features of today’s financial system. First, governments will bail out the largest banks rather than let them collapse and damage the economy. Second, and worse, being too big to fail helps large banks grow even larger, as creditors and trading partners prefer to work with banks that have an implicit government guarantee.

Balancing the figures
Too-big-to-fail banks enjoy lower interest rates on debt than their mid-size counterparts, because lenders know that the bonds or trading contracts that such banks issue will be paid, even if the bank itself fails. Before, during, and just after the 2007-2008 financial crisis, this provided an advantage equivalent to more than one third of the largest US banks’ equity value.

Bailouts of too-big-to-fail banks are unpopular among economists, policy makers, and taxpayers, who resent special deals for financial bigwigs. Public anger gave regulators in the US and elsewhere widespread support after the financial crisis to set higher capital and other safety requirements.

And more regulatory changes are in the works. New studies, including important ones from the IMF and the US Government Accountability Office, do indeed show that the long-term boost afforded to too-big-to-fail banks like Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, and Bank of America is declining from its pre-crisis high. This is good news.

The bad news is that US bank representatives cite these studies when claiming, in the financial media and presumably to their favourite members of Congress, that the too-big-to-fail phenomenon has been contained and that the time has come for regulators to back off.

This is a dangerous idea, for several reasons. For starters, the IMF’s research and similar studies show that the likelihood of a bailout over the life of the bonds already issued by banks is indeed now lower. But the studies do not specify why. Lower bailout risk could reflect the perception that the regulation already in place is appropriate and complete. Or bond-market participants may expect that new regulations, like the stress tests, will finish the job. The studies could be telling us that investors believe that regulators are on the case and have enough political support to implement further safeguards. Or they could think that the economy is currently strong enough that the banks will not fail before the bonds are paid off in a few years.

The bigger picture
The second reason why such studies should not deter regulators from continued intelligent action is that the research focuses on long-term debt. But that is not the right place to look nowadays, because regulators are positioning long-term debt to take the hit in a meltdown, while making banks’ extremely profitable – and far more volatile – short-term debt and trading operations more certain to be paid in full.

As a result, traders choose too-big-to-fail banks, rather than mid-size institutions, as counter-parties for their short-term trades, causing the large banks’ trading books – and, hence, their profits – to surge. Measuring the boost to short-term debt is not easy. But it is most likely quite large.

The major banks’ recent effort, led by Citigroup, to convince the US Congress to repeal a key provision of the 2010 Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act that would have pushed much of their short-term trading to distant affiliates (which are not too big to fail) reinforces this interpretation. The banks know that they will receive more business if they run their trading desks from the part of their corporate group that has the strongest government backing.

The third reason to be wary of bankers’ confidence that the regulatory job is complete is that once they believe it, they will behave accordingly – less frightened of failure and thus willing to take on more risk. That seems to have been the case before the financial crisis, and there is no business or psychological reason to think that it will not happen again.

Regulators must not be deterred by bank lobbying or studies that measure neither the short-term boost afforded by a bank’s too-big-to-fail status, nor how much of the perception of increased safety can be attributed to the regulations in place and the expectation of additional good regulation. In the absence of such studies, regulators must use their own judgment and intelligence. If ‘too big to fail’ also means ‘too big to regulate’, the perception of increased safety will not last long.

Mark Roe is a professor at Harvard Law School. He has written a series of articles on banking reforms for Project Syndicate, the FT and The Wall Street Journal.

© Project Syndicate, 2015

Global arms industry struggles for sales

The Sipri annual report published last December revealed that the global arms industry had declined for the third year in a row. There has been progressively slowing demand for weaponry following the end of the Cold War, and that demand has dropped further as a result of NATO’s shrinking world budget since the onset of the 2008 financial crisis. Amid this disappointing backdrop, one market stands out in terms of achieving revenue growth in recent years: Russia.

The defence budget
The US is the most prolific in terms of weapons manufacturing and sales, with a defence budget that is bigger than 15 countries combined (see Fig. 1) – an incredible ranking for any industry. While the US will continue to dictate the global industry by means of its sheer size (see Fig. 2), this formidable market is now under pressure. “The decline in arms sales in the US, in our analysis, is mostly due to the decrease in the operations budget, so that directly affects the industry because these budgets also buy weapons and services”, says Dr Aude Fleurant, Programme Director at Sipri, a research centre specialising in arms and the military. Namely, the 2011 Budget Control Act that was introduced in order to reduce the budget deficit of $2.1trn by 2021 has had a detrimental impact on arms sales in the US.

While revenue in the US has fallen, Russia’s arms industry is doing increasingly well. But despite its increase of the global market share, Russian producers now face a possible hindrance as a result of the country’s recent economic woes. Currently, the state budget is experiencing considerable pressure due to Western sanctions and the drastic fall of the rouble. The implications for the arms industry are yet to be seen, but perhaps they will not even come about. “There might be ring fencing of the defence investment in order to pursue the effort in modernising the Russian defence industry, because the Russian objective is to upgrade and update the defence industry so that it can become more competitive on the international stage and more efficient – but they have not actually met these objectives yet”, explains Dr Fleurant. Tensions with Ukraine and last year’s annexation of Crimea give further validation for Moscow to maintain its current defence strategy and continue to bolster its capabilities, in spite of the state’s fiscal crisis.

A number of countries prefer to purchase Russian or Chinese equipment over US counterparts, not only due to much lower prices, but also because of traditional alliances

Sales in Western Europe, on the other hand, have been mixed, largely as a result of the varying defence programmes and budgets of each state. Furthermore, unlike the collaborative efforts made towards economic integration, the same has not been achieved for security. The UK, the world’s second largest producer – like the US – has experienced a drop in sales. While French firms Dassault and DCNS, have climbed the ranks of Sipri’s top 100 arms-producing companies report for 2013.

Further reflecting the heterogeneous nature of the European market are Spain’s Navantia and Italy’s Finmeccanica, which have both fallen in Sipri’s rankings. The performance of Navantia and Finmeccanica correlates with the mounting fiscal debt inflicting their respective states and indicates the vulnerability of a country’s defence industry to national economic pressures.

Domestic demand
The US Department of Defence has enforced a number of changes that have considerably reduced domestic demand. First, it has implemented a policy of upgrading weaponry as opposed to frequent replacements. In addition, according to the Performance of the Defence Acquisition System 2014 Annual Report, the Pentagon is attempting to administer more sophisticated and individually tailored contracts, as the traditional format is known for encouraging overspending.

Furthermore, the withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan has also reduced the weaponry requirements of the US Government drastically. Public outrage and global pressures have influenced this radical change in foreign policy, thereby highlighting the susceptibility of the industry to the political paradigm. As demonstrated in this case, foreign policies can change suddenly and drastically; the direct impact on arms manufacturers is immediate. As such, US producers must now await another ‘peace-keeping excursion’ in order to significantly bolster their sales again.

Despite the general downturn in the global weapons market largely resulting from economic pressures, Russia’s gains are the result of an investment strategy that was administered in the 2000s. Funding was furthered when the State Armaments Programme was implemented in 2008 and instigated the radical renovation of the Russian Ministry of Defence. The transformation began with the reorganisation of the military’s structure from divisions to brigades, and was then followed by the armament of the newly-formed contingents.

Countries with the highest military spending

Reflecting this change in policy is the state’s three most prolific firms that have had a combined revenue growth of 172 percent in 2013 from the previous year. What is striking about the recent success of Russian arms producers is the timescale required to turn investment into profit, a standard protocol for the industry. In order to advance revenue growth, heavy investment and a long-term strategy is required, both of which can be interrupted if domestic or global political circumstances interfere; making the nature of this industry more precarious and protracted than most.

Japan is another market in which domestic demand is on the rise as its defence policy – which has been notoriously subdued for decades – begins to change. Threats from ISIS insurgents, including the recent beheading of two Japanese citizens, has brought into focus the country’s legal obstruction of deploying troops abroad. In addition, verbal clashes with China regarding territorial waters and provocation by North Korea as it tests rockets near the Japanese border have given Prime Minister Abe a strong pretext to drastically shift this aspect of the country’s foreign policy.

As a result, Japan augmented its defence budget to a record JPY 4.98trn ($4.3bn) in January, according to Bloomberg – in spite of the economic challenges currently facing the state. Not only will increased power overseas bring Japan in closer alignment with the security strategy of other nations, it will also have a positive impact for the country’s arms industry.

Exporting weaponry
There are further hopes of bolstering the revenue of Japanese products through the overseas market. Since 1967, the state’s ban on the export of almost all weaponry had restricted its arms industry to domestic sales. In another bold move made by Abe, the once strict regulations were eased last year. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries was the first to be awarded with an arms export licence, and has signed agreements to sell its sensors for US missiles and propulsion technology for Australian submarines.

Opening up Japanese producers to foreign markets can allow economies of scale to be achieved, a significant factor when considering that for the past five decades the customer base has consisted of just one patron. Despite a great deal of anticipation from Japanese manufacturers, a significant increase of exports is doubtful due to the nature of the global arms industry. International competition is greater than ever, therefore the gap available in the market for expensive Japanese products may only be marginal.

There is also a group of newcomers to the industry that have begun to increase their respective sales and attract attention: India, Brazil and Turkey. South Korea is a notable case as a rising player on the international scene, with sales of fighter jets to the Philippines, Indonesia and Iraq.

Despite relative success of emerging producers in recent years, their profit growth is capped by the fierce level of competition for exports. In addition, achieving long-term projects is an extremely complex and costly business and so presents another limitation to emerging economies. Furthermore, Dr Fleurant argues that the success of these new suppliers has been overstated: “In truly quantitative terms, their place as arms producers is not that important, but they attract a lot of attention from traditional suppliers”.

There is another new challenge facing the saturated market: competition from the ever-growing and increasingly influential tech industry. As a by-product of greater investment and research capabilities, tech companies are currently exploring the field of innovative weaponry, such as robotics and exoskeletons. There has been considerable media attention about this overlap of the two spheres, most likely because it appears to be a logical convergence of the two industries.

US defence budget breakdowns

Yet, the reality of this trend is yet to transpire as there are a series of inhibitive factors that prevent the tech industry from supplying weaponry. The extremely long lead times for development and commercialisation in the defence industry are a far cry from those in the tech sector. This is largely due to military standards and export controls, which are far more rigorous and demanding than those required for commercial products. The drastically different nature of the two markets raises further doubts; with the civilian consumer base being so much wider, varied and more profitable, the hurdles affiliated with the defence industry may make the much-talked-about endeavours of tech companies un-viable.

Unlike other industries, the arms market is impossible to forecast. As customers are governments, and defence budgets are determined both by a state’s economic success and the geopolitical climate – industry experts cannot predict how markets will evolve in the coming years. With that being said, it is likely that the fierce competition prevalent in the export market will continue. Global economic growth continues at a slow rate, thereby constricting defence spending in general. Furthermore, sales are tied into the long-standing relations between states that make it extremely difficult for a new supplier to make headway into an established buyer-seller relationship, particularly as politics are principally at play. For example, a number of countries prefer to purchase Russian or Chinese equipment over US counterparts, not only due to much lower prices, but also because of traditional alliances.

Sluggish GDP growth means that a state’s defence budget is a popular target for cuts, particularly in light of growing social and political pressures. Therefore, in consideration of such a restrictive client base and flagging domestic demand, it is increasingly necessary for arms manufacturers to evolve. Their strategy and product line are in much need of diversification in order to reverse the current trend of falling profits and vast job cuts.

Although some firms are reluctant to expand into the civilian sphere, the scope for modifying products exists, and has potential; examples include vehicle components and hi-tech systems. Of course, there are challenges inherent to this kind of adaptation for any industry, in addition to those attached specifically to weapon manufacturers, which include public disapproval and reluctance from potential business partners. Yet even for those who are against the industry as whole, this is a logical step, and one that should be encouraged both internally and externally.

The deflation/inflation balancing act

the-price-paradox

In 1923, John Maynard Keynes addressed a fundamental economic question that remains valid today. “Inflation is unjust and deflation is inexpedient”, he wrote. “Of the two perhaps deflation is… the worse; because it is worse… to provoke unemployment than to disappoint the rentier. But it is not necessary that we should weigh one evil against the other.”

The logic of the argument seems irrefutable. Because many contracts are ‘sticky’ (that is, not easily revised) in monetary terms, inflation and deflation would both inflict damage on the economy. Rising prices reduce the value of savings and pensions, while falling prices reduce profit expectations, encourage hoarding, and increase the real burden of debt.

The post-crisis experience of quantitative easing has highlighted monetary policy’s relative powerlessness to offset the global deflationary trend

Keynes’ dictum has become the ruling wisdom of monetary policy (one of his few to survive). Governments, according to the conventional wisdom, should aim for stable prices, with a slight bias toward inflation to stimulate the ‘animal spirits’ of businessmen and shoppers.

Failing to meet expectations
In the 10 years prior to the 2008 financial crisis, independent central banks set an inflation target of about two percent, in order to provide economies with a price-stability ‘anchor’. There should be no expectation that prices would be allowed to deviate, except temporarily, from the target. Uncertainty relating to the future course of prices would be eliminated from business calculations.

Since 2008, the Federal Reserve Board and the ECB have failed to meet the two percent inflation target in any year; the Bank of England (BoE) has been on target in only one year out of seven. Moreover, in 2015, prices in the US, the eurozone, and the UK are set to fall. So what is left of the inflation anchor? And what do falling prices mean for economic recovery?

The first thing to bear in mind is that the ‘anchor’ was always as flimsy as the monetary theory on which it was based. The price level at any time is the result of many factors, of which monetary policy is perhaps the least important. Today, the collapse in the price of crude oil is probably the most significant factor driving inflation below target, just as in 2011 it was the rise in oil prices that drove it above target.

As British economist Roger Bootle pointed out in his 1996 book The Death of Inflation, the price-cutting effects of globalisation have been a much more important influence on the price level than the anti-inflation policies of central banks. Indeed, the post-crisis experience of quantitative easing has highlighted monetary policy’s relative powerlessness to offset the global deflationary trend. From 2009 to 2011, the BoE pumped $578bn into the British economy ‘to bring inflation back to target.’ The Fed injected $3trn over a slightly longer period. The most that can be claimed for this vast monetary expansion is that it produced a temporary ‘spike’ in inflation.

The old adage applies: “You can lead a horse to water, but you can’t make it drink.” People cannot be forced to spend money if they have good reasons for not doing so. If business prospects are weak, companies are unlikely to invest; if households are drowning in debt, they are unlikely to go on a spending spree. The ECB is about to discover the truth of this as it starts on its own €1trn programme of monetary expansion in an effort to stimulate the stagnant eurozone economy.

So what happens to the recovery if we fall into what is euphemistically called ‘negative inflation’? Until now, the consensus view has been that this would be bad for output and employment. Keynes gave the reason in 1923: “The fact of falling prices”, he wrote, “injures entrepreneurs; consequently the fear of falling prices causes them to protect themselves by curtailing their operations.”

The cost of bad deflation
But many commentators have been cheered by the prospect of falling prices. They distinguish between ‘benign disinflation’ and ‘bad deflation’. Benign disinflation means rising real incomes for lenders, pensioners, and workers, and falling energy prices for industry. All sectors of the economy will spend more, pushing up output and employment – and sustaining the price level, too.

By contrast, ‘bad deflation’ means an increase in the real burden of debt. A debtor contracts to pay a fixed sum in interest every year. If the value of money goes up (prices fall), the interest he pays will cost him more, in terms of goods and services he can buy, than if prices had stayed the same. In the reverse, inflationary case, the interest will cost him less. Thus, price deflation means debt inflation; and a higher debt burden means lower spending. Given the huge levels of outstanding private and public debt, bad deflation, as Bootle writes, “is a nightmare almost beyond imagining.”

But how can we stop benign disinflation from turning into bad deflation? Apostles of monetary expansion believe that all you have to do is speed up the printing press. But why should this be any more successful in the future than it has been in the last few years?

Avoiding deflation – and thus sustaining economic recovery – would seem to depend on one of two scenarios: either a rapid reversal in the fall of energy prices, or a deliberate policy to raise output and employment by means of public investment (which, as a by-product, would bring about a rise in prices). But this would mean reversing the priority given to deficit reduction.

No one can tell when the first will happen; and no governments are prepared to do the second. So the most likely outcome is more of the same: continued drift in a state of semi-stagnation.

Robert Skidelsky is Professor of Political Economy at Warwick University

© Project Syndicate, 2015

 

Investors navigate the risks of crowdfunding

Crowdfunding sites have revolutionised the way people invest and how international companies seek out capital, with the World Bank estimating that the industry is set to bring in more than $93bn worth of investment by 2025. Most people who have taken part in the practice get involved in what is known as reward-based crowdfunding, where start-ups and entrepreneurs use websites like Kickstarter and IndieGoGo to pre-sell a product or service.

There is usually a tiered system of donation, with the highest entry point allowing backers to obtain a copy of the product if the campaign can raise the necessary capital. But if backers cannot stretch to the top tier of investment, they can still help to get the project off the ground in exchange for incrementally smaller perks, depending on how much money they are willing to part with.

Then there is equity crowdfunding, with the key distinction being that, unlike the reward-based model, investors receive shares in a company in exchange for the capital they put in. With both types there are massive risks involved. Start-ups are notorious for failing fast, and failing often. But that does little to deter the millions of investors from logging on and paying out, all in the hope of getting involved in the next big thing. But while both backers and investors share an eagerness to support fledgling companies to take flight, there is a clear distinction in the decision-making behaviour of the two – one where emotion and objectivity are exercised in unequal measure.

Start-up failures: percentage of failures by year of operation

25%

Year 1

36%

Year 2

44%

Year 3

50%

Year 4

55%

Year 5

60%

Year 6

63%

Year 7

66%

Year 8

69%

Year 9

71%

Year 10

Source: Kickstarter. Notes: 2014 figures

Falling short
When the right product comes along it can send people into a bit of a frenzy, with happy backers showering crowdfunding campaigns with money in an attempt to see their dream device or service made a reality. This is exactly what is happening to the Sondors Electric Bike that launched its quest for capital on IndieGoGo. It is priced well under its competitors at just $649, and the bike boasts some impressive stats for such a small price, helping it to raise nearly $4m – far exceeding its modest goal of $75,000. But when something sounds too good to be true, it usually is. This is why, despite attracting a lot of funding, it has also caught the attention of others in the e-bike industry that question whether it can really deliver on all of its pre-sale promises.

In an interview with Yahoo! Tech, Robert Provost, CEO of Prodeco Technologies, a company that sells its own line of electric bikes, accused the makers of the Sondors Electric Bike of making hugely inaccurate and false claims in their IndieGoGo campaign. “What they are claiming is highly suspect”, says Provost. “We’re afraid a lot of people who think they got a great deal will be disappointed with the bike.”

Apart from its very low price tag, the e-bike claims some impressive stats: a powerful 350-Watt motor capable of generating a top speed of 20mph and a lithium ion battery that can be charged in just 90 minutes, with enough juice to keep it moving for 50 miles – all adding up to make it an attractive offering to the market. But industry insiders are not convinced.

“I do question some of the [bike’s] specs”, says Court Rye, owner of the Electric Bike Review website and YouTube channel. “The lightest fat-tire electric bike I’ve ever reviewed and weighed myself is the Felt Lebowski, a $5,800 performance model built with 6061 aluminium alloy — it weighs just 48 pounds. Steel is much heavier, in my experience.”

To answer some of their doubters the team behind the Sondors Electric Bike have planned a number of demonstration days in order to prove naysayers wrong and display to consumers that their bike can do what they claim: “There has been a lot of speculation about the bike over the past few days and we want to assure you that it is real, it exists and it is quality”, reads an update on their IndieGoGo page. “We feel the best way to address this is to invite our backers, potential future backers and those naysayers out there to test the bike for themselves.”

The bike will need to perform well if it is to lower many a raised eyebrow over claims made about the bike’s range and top speed. Critics contend that with a rider in tow the direct drive motor is simply not powerful enough to reach such speeds and that 10 to 15 miles is a much more realistic range for a battery of that size. Electric-FatBike.com even went as far to imply that the people behind it are “overselling their bike to the point of fraud” and highlighting the inconsistencies in the company’s marketing campaign.

“In the photos and video they show people riding bikes that are prototypes with foot-pegs instead of pedals and using much larger motors than a 380-Watt system”, writes the reviewer. “They also advertise it as Direct Drive, but in the pictures the motor is clearly a geared hub. They talk about hydraulic brakes, but then show pictures of cable brakes. There is little to no consistency in the description and the pictures and videos.”

Great expectations
But even with his expertise, this reviewer still hopes that the Sondors Electric Bike will deliver, even admitting at the end of the piece that he would “rather give [his] money to a beach bum surfer with big promises than a CEO of a big company any day”. Many people seem to get so blinded by the possibility of getting their hands on the product of their dreams that they are no longer capable of exercising any kind of objectivity.

This proclivity of people to allow themselves to get caught up in all the excitement, means that entrepreneurs may inadvertently over stretch or make promises that will fall short in an attempt to acquire the necessary attention and capital they require. This vicious cycle becomes even more disconcerting because these sites do not offer refunds if it all goes south. Nor are the creators contractually obligated to refund funders, so long as they supply them with something. Whether it lives up to its initial billing, however, is irrelevant.

Number of crowdfunded investing platforms

The world of videogames is a clear example of this vicious cycle in action. Peter Molyneux, a developer who once carried a lot of weight in the industry, has seen his reputation take a nosedive. After he successfully got his most recent offering, Project Godus, off the ground through Kickstarter back in 2012, the game is still yet to reach players’ PCs. This has naturally angered fans and led to him coming under huge criticism from the gaming community, as well as those who supported his campaign.

Adding to the irritation felt by supporters of the project, Molyneux recently announced that he will be shifting his attention onto a different project, leaving backers wondering if he has just decided to shelve the game for good. Molyneux is not the only developer to pull this type thing. Many consumers have had their excitement snuffed out by broken pre-release promises.

But to put all the blame on these entrepreneurs and would-be start-ups is simply not fair. The backers of these campaigns are just as much at fault for backing them in the first place. Both campaigns received well over their target amount. The sensible choice would be to wait and see, but the fact that people are unwilling to show restraint is indicative of their inclination to act on impulse. The criticisms aimed at developers like Molyneux taking too long and the likely complaints that will be levelled at the Sondors Electric Bike should it fall short, also provide evidence of the fact that many simply fail to comprehend the huge undertaking that is game development or the potential risks and manufacturing road humps that arise when bringing a prototype to the mass market.

Bigger stakes
Equity crowdfunding is a different story entirely. Users of sites like Crowdcube are not looking at the product or service in isolation – they are looking at the business as a whole. “Investors are looking for a strong idea that offers the opportunity to scale up, so there needs to be a really clearly defined market opportunity – a real problem that your business is solving”, says Luke Lang, Co-Founder of Crowdcube. “No matter who is investing, whether it is a crowd investor, an angel investor, or a VC. They’re all looking for the same thing: a strong team with decent levels of experience and a proven ability to exercise a successful business plan.”

Kickstarter’s successfully funded projects

1,798

Art

1,715

Design

998

Fashion

3,846

Film & Video

1,980

Games

4,009

Music

2,064

Publishing

1,124

Technology

Source: Kickstarter. Notes: 2014 figures

Looking at companies from this perspective alters the types of businesses that equity crowd funders are interested in. Enterprises that are already up and running and operating with a decent degree of success – which are looking for the next round of investment to really accelerate growth – are particularly popular. “It is not to say that we do not fund startup businesses, but it is slightly more challenging for the entrepreneur”, says Lang. “But they need to be even more convincing that their business or idea is highly transformational or that they have spotted a niche in the market that they believe they can plug.”

“It just makes the investment pitch that little bit harder. I guess that is why our investors tend to edge towards the early stage businesses, as it lowers the amount of risk that they expose themselves to.” Christine Lomax is a London-based business advisor who has invested in four companies through Crowdcube and recommends that before investing in any business or start-up to do some thorough research behind the scenes.

“It’s better to be cautious if you feel sales projections seem sky high or you just feel they’re getting a bit too crazy; make sure people aren’t pulling figures out of the air”, says Lomax. “They should have a very transparent business plan and cash flow, with a good attention to detail – the figures have got to stack up.” Backers on IndieGoGo, however, tend to look strictly at the product or service and usually from the perspective of a consumer, not an investor.

Although understandable, backers of campaigns on reward-based crowdfunding sites might be better off exercising a little more caution, especially if the project has already reached its goal. There is always the opportunity to buy the product once the business is fully operational, and at that point any kinks or manufacturing potholes are likely to be smoothed out.

Over-funding could also inadvertently put the start-up in bit of a bind, as manufacturing is notoriously hazardous, with delays and mistakes a plenty. Excessive orders, therefore, can be more trouble than the are worth for an inexperienced entrepreneur.

Even tech behemoths like Apple struggle to get products out in time, so assuming a small start-up with little or no experience to hit all its targets and live up to the huge expectations that are placed on it by backers is demanding a lot.

Agency loss can occur if the principal and the agent do not share common interests. So as long as both parties desire the same outcome then everyone is happy. In equity crowdfunding this parameter is adequately met, as both investors (principal) and management (agent) seek to maximise personal economic wealth and, therefore, agency loss is minimised.

But in reward-based crowdfunding there is a problem: the principal is not concerned with maximising economic wealth, but instead, the principal simply wants a good or service in return for their investment. The agent on the other hand is seeking to maximise economic wealth. This reduction in common ground leads to agency loss and negatively impacts the relationship between both parties.

As equity crowdfunding rewards investors for choosing companies that can achieve long-term success, there is a tendency for people to gravitate towards companies that offer more than an impressive-looking product. Investors are looking to be involved over the long haul, and investors and management bond over a desire to make money. But just because backers on sites like Kickstarter do not have equity in the company, it shouldn’t lead to short-term thinking.

Peter Molyneux, founder of the 22Cans games studio
Peter Molyneux, founder of the 22Cans games studio