The insignificance of significance
In economics, statistical significance is often conflated with relevance, leading researchers to push data to fit with their theory. A Bayesian approach, instead, expects theories to evolve as data is collected. While this leads to less newsworthy findings, it is restoring statistics’ legitimacy
The dangerous delusion of price stability
Central banks’ fixation on positive but low inflation could bring unwanted repercussions. Governments must stop obsessing over inflation targets and, instead, proactively consider measures to prevent another crisis from erupting
Has China’s economic growth finally stabilised?
The Chinese economy appears to be in fine fettle. However, weakening investment growth and other concerning trends suggest the outlook may not be as auspicious as it seems
Is another debt crisis on the way?
Despite the healthy rate of growth currently being experienced by the global economy, the total ratio of debt-to-GDP continues to climb. Does this indicate the onset of another financial crisis?
A new growth model for Europe’s neighbourhood
The developing economies of Europe previously outperformed emerging economies elsewhere, but the impact of the Recession stalled their growth. A shift towards a future-orientated growth model is required to arrest this decline
The opacity of economics has attributed a quasi-magical quality to the interpreters and doyens of the financial sector. But does the failure to predict or prevent financial crises demonstrate that these powers are fallacious?
Why China’s capital account liberalisation has stalled
In recent years, China’s capital account has swung into deficit, with billions of dollars in foreign exchange reserves going missing. Risky liberalisation is the reason behind this massive capital flight
Why economic growth is no longer enough
Many industries are experiencing an increase in productivity due to the growing capabilities of technology, but low-skilled workers are suffering as a result. In this digital age, we must reassess our idea of what constitutes an economic success story
The fight for Saudi Aramco listing
Banks and stock exchanges the world over are competing to be involved in the listing of Saudi Aramco, but a record-breaking IPO may not be in the best interests of the Saudi Government
Why clear communication is crucial for banks
The language used by central banks is ill-suited to the needs of the average consumer. To successfully manage expectations, banks must learn to communicate more effectively
A three-pronged future
The global economy is currently accelerating, but positive growth never lasts forever. There are three possible paths world leaders can now take to either prolong this recovery, or destroy it
The magic touch
Toronto is growing at its slowest rate in almost half a century, and yet house prices have increased by a third in the past year alone. The reason for this continual rise is a market-wide magic trick
With economists taking a reductionist approach to economics, another financial crisis is inevitable. They must learn from the mistakes of weather forecasters and changing their predictive models
The lesson of populism: bad policies pay off
The world should learn from the suffering Latin America has endured as a result of poorly planned populist policies, rather than continuing to dance with death
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